BA's College Stock Report - Week 9

#1
vol66

vol66

GBO!!!
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#1
Thought some might find this interesting as we're at the half way mark of the season.

College Stock Report: Week Nine - BaseballAmerica.com

Southeastern Conference (9 bids)

SAFELY IN: Vanderbilt, LSU, Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Florida, Texas A&M

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Alabama

No change from our midseason projection.

We put Florida in the field two weeks ago because we anticipated the Gators would surge in the second half. They have won five straight games against ranked opponents (at Mississippi State, at Florida State, then a home sweep of South Carolina) to climb above .500 overall, and their RPI is robust (No. 12). If Florida can finish the season with a winning record, it should be in good shape for an at-large spot.

Texas A&M and Alabama are going in the opposite direction. The Aggies have lost three straight series (at South Carolina, home against Auburn and Mississippi State), dropping them to 6-9 in the SEC. They still have a solid RPI (No. 34), and the remaining schedule includes three winnable series (at Alabama, vs. Missouri, at Tennessee), plus two very challenging series (at Arkansas, vs. LSU). If they can go 8-7 in those games to finish 14-16 in the SEC, we like their chances for an at-large spot.

Alabama is still in better shape currently at 8-7 in the league, but the Crimson Tide has started to fade against the meat of its schedule, as we anticipated. ‘Bama has lost consecutive series against Arkansas and Ole Miss, and the Tide still must play LSU, A&M and Missouri at home, and travel to Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. We’re projecting a 4-11 finish against that slate, which would put Alabama 12-18 in the league and outside of at-large position.
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#5
#5
lovavol said:
sucks we don't even have a shot at the post season....miss Rod
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1. We have a shot at postseason (NCAA's) this year. Long(ish) shot but we could do it.

2. We will never again miss a regional with 3 first rounders and 2 freshman All Americans.

I do not miss Rod. I miss postseason, but that's not the same thing.
 
#6
#6
CookevilleVol said:
Tennessee Tech beat Vandy yesterday in Nashville 10 to 9 . ( yea I know no one cares )
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Tech was on a mission last night. I was there and at times they made Vandy look like they didn't belong on that field. Very entertaining game. Great defensive plays by both teams with bases loaded at critical points in the game. Tech's 3-4-5 guys have some serious numbers.

Vandy should have squeezed with Conde to at least get even in the 9th.
 
#7
#7
What would happen if we won our SEC Home Series 2-1 vs Ole Miss, and TAMU and swept UGA and avoided getting swept on the road by UF and ARKY, winning 1 in each of those series...split with MTSU...we go 12-7 overall, 9-6 in conference play, making our conference record 14-16...

That's nearly impossible, but if we did that , would we get in?
 
#8
#8
vol66 said:
What would happen if we won our SEC Home Series 2-1 vs Ole Miss, and TAMU and swept UGA and avoided getting swept on the road by UF and ARKY, winning 1 in each of those series...split with MTSU...we go 12-7 overall, 9-6 in conference play, making our conference record 14-16...

That's nearly impossible, but if we did that , would we get in?
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We get to .500 overall and win 14 games in conference, I think we're in. That's assuming our RPI is in good shape, which it ought to be.

As I've said before, the way into Hoover and a regional is win series at home, avoid sweeps on the road, and take care of business midweek.
 
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#9
#9
BigOrange51 said:
1. We have a shot at postseason (NCAA's) this year. Long(ish) shot but we could do it.

2. We will never again miss a regional with 3 first rounders and 2 freshman All Americans.

I do not miss Rod. I miss postseason, but that's not the same thing.
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seems like we were just a better ball club in his day, thats all....what do you mean in your second point?
 
#10
#10
lovavol said:
seems like we were just a better ball club in his day, thats all....what do you mean in your second point?
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I hear you. Its been a rough go, but we'll be back where we belong soon.

The second point is in respect to the '07 team. Arencibia, Borbon, and Adkins were 1st round draft picks. Gomes and Lockwood were freshman AA's. In all honesty, that team deserved to get into a regional, but they should have been considerably better than they were.
 
#11
#11
BigOrange51 said:
We get to .500 overall and win 14 wins in conference, we're in. That's assuming our RPI is in good shape, which it ought to be.

As I've said before, the way into Hoover and a regional is win series at home, avoid sweeps on the road, and take care of business midweek.
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I'd think if we can make some noise versus Ole Miss and UF, our RPI will go up considerably...the link shows where the teams on our remaining schedule rank in terms of RPI.

Tennessee Volunteers RPI is '56' for 2013 Men's College Baseball - WarrenNolan.com

11 out of the remaining 19 games are vs. teams with an RPI in the top 50, Arky may go up by then, so 14 out of 19...that's not too shabby, it's indeed, a pretty hard road.
 
#12
#12
vol66 said:
What would happen if we won our SEC Home Series 2-1 vs Ole Miss, and TAMU and swept UGA and avoided getting swept on the road by UF and ARKY, winning 1 in each of those series...split with MTSU...we go 12-7 overall, 9-6 in conference play, making our conference record 14-16...

That's nearly impossible, but if we did that , would we get in?
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Impossible? Did somebody call my name!
This season is far from over with our best ball to come.
We'll make it...no sweat.:salute:
GO VOLS!
 
#13
#13
RollerVol said:
Impossible? Did somebody call my name!
This season is far from over with our best ball to come.
We'll make it...no sweat.:salute:
GO VOLS!
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I can sure get behind the optimism...I feel like this weekend is huge, against another top 20 team that no one gives us a chance to beat. If we can somehow manage to win this series I might go full bore believer. I think injuries might cause us some problems too, we'll see, GBO!
 
#14
#14
vol66 said:
I'd think if we can make some noise versus Ole Miss and UF, our RPI will go up considerably...the link shows where the teams on our remaining schedule rank in terms of RPI.

Tennessee Volunteers RPI is '56' for 2013 Men's College Baseball - WarrenNolan.com

11 out of the remaining 19 games are vs. teams with an RPI in the top 50, Arky may go up by then, so 14 out of 19...that's not too shabby, it's indeed, a pretty hard road.
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Georgia makes 3 of those not in the top 50. Who are the other 2 against?

Edit: Arkansas state/Morehead.

Middle has an rpi of 38 which is huge for potetenially a few more quality wins.
 
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#15
#15
This year, I would be happy to make it to Hoover and get past the first round (single elimination) and into the double elimination portion of the SEC tournament. That experience would be huge for this team.
 
#16
#16
Backwards K said:
This year, I would be happy to make it to Hoover and get past the first round (single elimination) and into the double elimination portion of the SEC tournament. That experience would be huge for this team.
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I definitely agree with this. If we're not going to make a regional, it would really be nice to get a win in a do or die game in Hoover. That would definitely be another step in the right direction for this program.
 
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