Based off Recruiting rankings (from Rivals)

#1
D

Dougie_D

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#1
I decided to go back all the way in 2005 to see how our recruiting ranks matched our overall record for those years. Rivals goes as far as 2002, so I took each 3 years prior and that current year to give the AVG Recruiting rank. I only could start in 2005 because of that. So in 2005 it's 2, 18, 20, 4.

2002 - #2 - -------------------
2003 - #18 -------------------
2004 - #20 -------------------
2005 - #4 - FULMER - AVG. #11 - RECORD (5-6)
2006 - #23 FULMER - AVG. #16 - RECORD (9-4)
2007 - #3 - FULMER - AVG. #13 - RECORD (10-4)
2008 - #35 FULMER - AVG. #16 - RECORD (5-7)
2009 - #10 KIFFIN - AVG. #18 - RECORD (7-6)
2010 - #9 - DOOLEY- AVG. #14 - RECORD (6-7)
2011 - #13-DOOLEY- AVG. #17 - RECORD (5-7)
2012- #17- DOOLEY- AVG. #12 - RECORD (5-7)
2013- #21 -JONES - AVG. #15 - RECORD (5-7)
2014 -#5 - JONES - AVG. #14 - RECORD ( ???)
2015 - ??
 
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#2
#2
I'd think having 4 different coaching staffs in a 6 year time frame would skew any results one could pull from recruiting rankings. Especially when Dooley is taking up 3 of those years.
 
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#4
#4
Dougie_D said:
I decided to go back all the way in 2005 to see how our recruiting ranks matched our overall record for those years. Rivals goes as far as 2002, so I took each 3 years prior and that current year to give the AVG Recruiting rank. I only could start in 2005 because of that. So in 2005 it's 2, 18, 20, 4.

2002 - #2 - -------------------
2003 - #18 -------------------
2004 - #20 -------------------
2005 - #4 - FULMER - AVG. #10 - RECORD (5-6)
2006 - #23 FULMER - AVG. #16 - RECORD (9-4)
2007 - #3 - FULMER - AVG. #13 - RECORD (10-4)
2008 - #35 FULMER - AVG. #16 - RECORD (5-7)
2009 - #10 KIFFIN - AVG. #18 - RECORD (7-6)
2010 - #9 - DOOLEY- AVG. #14 - RECORD (6-7)
2011 - #13-DOOLEY- AVG. #17 - RECORD (5-7)
2012- #17- DOOLEY- AVG. #12 - RECORD (5-7)
2013- #21 -JONES - AVG. #15 - RECORD (5-7)
2014 -#5 - JONES - AVG. #14 - RECORD ( ???)
2015 - ??
Click to expand...

This is all good info, but without factoring in attrition, which was pretty bad for a number of those years, it's hard to correlate winning and recruiting rankings.
 
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#5
#5
AF_VOL said:
This is all good info, but without factoring in attrition, which was pretty bad for a number of those years, it's hard to correlate winning and recruiting rankings.
Click to expand...

True...but based off these numbers, I'm predicting no less than a 7-6 season. Anything less, we should be very disappointed.
 
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#6
#6
you CANNOT correlate the equation.. recruiting ranking equals wins.....you have omitted so many variables they would take to long to list.....i suggest sir if you wish to apply math to logic, you do so in a more complete manner. Your logic is entirely flawed thus rendering your equation mute.
 
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#7
#7
We have had 3 times more attrition then any normal team has had.. so those numbers are slightly skewed...

What would be better to look at is how the players actually on the team at the time were ranked... would be more work then its worth though, unless someone out there has nothing to do.

Dooley was not as bad as many make him out to be..He is no where good enough to be an SEC coach.. but he would probably do halfway decent in the MWC or somewhere similar. He just had no where near the experience or personality needed to be successful on this level.

Glad we have CBJ.. But I still say that Fulmer should have gotten at least one more year, and at the very least, been able to leave on his own terms instead of the Humiliating way it was handled.

TLDR: Hamilton Sucks and destroyed UT athletics
 
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#8
#8
Two other factors that might be considered:

When did we start playing 8 SEC games?

How did other SEC teams rank?

Look at our current ranking for 2015; then look who is above us. In the Scout rankings, there are 4 SEC above us at 8.
 
#9
#9
Seems like every few months we get this exact same thread and every time it's posted the OP fails to factor in probably the most important thing when reviewing roster talent - attrition.
 
#10
#10
Dougie_D said:
True...but based off these numbers, I'm predicting no less than a 7-6 season. Anything less, we should be very disappointed.
Click to expand...

Thanks for letting us know when we should be disappointed. I couldnt figure it out.
 
#11
#11
How did you come up with 7-6 for this year? Lets pretend im interested even though this is flawed beyond imagination.
 
#13
#13
I hope that Jones get better production out of his top ranked classes than Fulmer did. Certainly Fulmer had his moments. He followed the coattail of Johnny Majors in the 90s but when that started to wear off the production went downhill.

One HUGE knock against Fulmer was that many players came into the system highly promising and never matured and got better or developed.

There were times when Fulmer had ace recruiters and great coaches on staff but he would let them go (to protect his own position).

Fulmer and co were notorious for recruiting top talent and never properly developing them. I'm kinda a Fulmer guy because I'm proud of what he did for Tennessee. But let's face it, too many seasons were wasted and more underachieving took place than expectations would allow. Plain and simple.
 
#14
#14
shenvalvol said:
you CANNOT correlate the equation.you have omitted so many variables they would take to long to list.....i suggest sir if you wish to apply math to logic, you do so in a more complete manner. Your logic is entirely flawed thus rendering your equation mute.
Click to expand...

so his equation is mute? "recruiting ranking equals wins....." that's what I got from this post, ....jimmys and joes to work the x's and o's
 
#15
#15
KingtUT said:
How did you come up with 7-6 for this year? Lets pretend im interested even though this is flawed beyond imagination.
Click to expand...

I used 2006 and 2007.

In 2006 the incoming class was #23 and AVG was #16.
In 2013 the incoming class was #21 and AVG was #15.

Those numbers are very close.

In 2007 the incoming class was #3 and AVG was #13.
In 2014 the incoming class was #5 and AVG was #14.

Those numbers are very close.

In 2007 they won 1 more game better and was able to reach the SEC championship game for an extra game.

In 2014, we should win 1 more game plus 1 extra to simulate the SEC championship game.

7-6 is my PREDICTION. Book it.
 
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#19
#19
Dougie_D said:
I used 2006 and 2007.

In 2006 the incoming class was #23 and AVG was #16.
In 2013 the incoming class was #21 and AVG was #15.

Those numbers are very close.

In 2007 the incoming class was #3 and AVG was #13.
In 2014 the incoming class was #5 and AVG was #14.

Those numbers are very close.

In 2007 they won 1 more game better and was able to reach the SEC championship game for an extra game.

In 2014, we should win 1 more game plus 1 extra to simulate the SEC championship game.

7-6 is my PREDICTION. Book it.
Click to expand...

there's this thing they call "strength of schedule" ......it matters.
 
#20
#20
exactly,,,EVERYTHING matters....strength of schedule, injuries, attrition, coaching, opposition injuries and on and on....reducing this to recruiting class equals X number of wins....nope. not close
 
#21
#21
A big reason for 2009's ranking was due to Bryce Brown. How do you account for his absense in '10-'12? What about Eric Berry in 2010? He went pro after 2009.

That's one of the things that are inaccurate about recruiting rankings. Besides being completely subjective, they are simply a snapshot of a particular point in time PRIOR to any of the players stepping foot on campus.

The only credible way to use recruiting rankings would be to re-rank them each year accounting for attrition and production.
 
#22
#22
Boca Vol said:
A big reason for 2009's ranking was due to Bryce Brown. How do you account for his absense in '10-'12? What about Eric Berry in 2010? He went pro after 2009.

That's one of the things that are inaccurate about recruiting rankings. Besides being completely subjective, they are simply a snapshot of a particular point in time PRIOR to any of the players stepping foot on campus.

The only credible way to use recruiting rankings would be to re-rank them each year accounting for attrition and production.
Click to expand...

2009 class was such a nightmare

6 of the top 7 players in that class left because of issues.
 
#23
#23
Dougie_D said:
I decided to go back all the way in 2005 to see how our recruiting ranks matched our overall record for those years. Rivals goes as far as 2002, so I took each 3 years prior and that current year to give the AVG Recruiting rank. I only could start in 2005 because of that. So in 2005 it's 2, 18, 20, 4.

2002 - #2 - -------------------
2003 - #18 -------------------
2004 - #20 -------------------
2005 - #4 - FULMER - AVG. #11 - RECORD (5-6)
2006 - #23 FULMER - AVG. #16 - RECORD (9-4)
2007 - #3 - FULMER - AVG. #13 - RECORD (10-4)
2008 - #35 FULMER - AVG. #16 - RECORD (5-7)
2009 - #10 KIFFIN - AVG. #18 - RECORD (7-6)
2010 - #9 - DOOLEY- AVG. #14 - RECORD (6-7)
2011 - #13-DOOLEY- AVG. #17 - RECORD (5-7)
2012- #17- DOOLEY- AVG. #12 - RECORD (5-7)
2013- #21 -JONES - AVG. #15 - RECORD (5-7)
2014 -#5 - JONES - AVG. #14 - RECORD ( ???)
2015 - ??
Click to expand...


What's really incredible is just how bad that 2008 class was. It was ranked 35 on national signing day but one of the four-star recruits EJ Abrams-Ward never even made it to fall camp. So in reality the class was probably should have been right in the 50s.
 
#24
#24
madbamahater said:
I hope that Jones get better production out of his top ranked classes than Fulmer did. Certainly Fulmer had his moments. He followed the coattail of Johnny Majors in the 90s but when that started to wear off the production went downhill.

One HUGE knock against Fulmer was that many players came into the system highly promising and never matured and got better or developed.

There were times when Fulmer had ace recruiters and great coaches on staff but he would let them go (to protect his own position).

Fulmer and co were notorious for recruiting top talent and never properly developing them. I'm kinda a Fulmer guy because I'm proud of what he did for Tennessee. But let's face it, too many seasons were wasted and more underachieving took place than expectations would allow. Plain and simple.
Click to expand...

So, Fulmer goes another entire recruiting cycle after Majors and wins a national championship. I would characterize that as continuing momentum, not riding coattails....
 
#25
#25
Stevorino said:
2009 class was such a nightmare

6 of the top 7 players in that class left because of issues.
Click to expand...

True but 2006 and 2008 were even worse than the rankings suggest...We might as well have been under heavy sanctions with scholarship reductions from '06-'09 attrition was so high and there were so many busts.
 
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