It's going to be very very close. I don't like it personally, because I think it's too close.
They have 9 potential games they could lose, seriously. The only gimmes are Miami (OH), Northwestern at home, and Toledo at home. I see it going like this:
Utah - L
Miami (OH) - W
@ Notre Dame - L
Wisconsin - L
Illinois - W
Toledo - W
@ Penn St - L
Michigan St - W
@ Purdue - W
@ Minnesota - L
Northwestern - W
@ Ohio St - L
That's 6-6, and I actually think Michigan State will be better than them. We'll see.