Bowl Eligible: What are Our Chances? Here's the Math.

[Rifleman]

Updated odds post-Bama are here:

http://www.volnation.com/forum/tennessee-vols-football/205725-bowl-eligible-what-our-chances-heres-3.html#post9398844

What exactly are our chances of becoming bowl eligible? Updated after SC win.

To find out, we just need the odds that we win in each of the games left on our schedule:

IF our chances are

South Carolina: 100% (yep, we beat 'em!)

Alabama: 6% (based on betting line)

Missouri: 40% (conservative est.)

Auburn: 45% (conservative est.)

Vandy: 65% (conservative est.)

Kentucky: 60% (conservative est.)

THEN we can calculate the probabilities

There is:

*a 74.4% chance we become bowl eligible, up from 48.1%

* a 36.9% we finish 7-5 or better, up from 17.14%.

* a 8.8% chance we finishing 8-4 or better, up from 2.94%.

* a .42% chance we win out.

So even with a conservative estimates, we now have a great shot at making a bowl, but . . .

Had we lost to the Gamecocks, our chances of becoming bowl eligible would have decreased to 36.9%.

In short, this was a huge, huge game for our bowl chances.

 

[Rifleman]

If we are slightly less conservative and add 5% to each game other than Bama, then we have a 57.5% chance at bowl eligibility and a 23.7% chance at winning 7 or more games.

That seems closer to what my gut is saying . . . but my gut is soaked in orange kool-aid.

If anyone wants to give me alternative numbers for our chances in all 6 games, I'll respond and post the outputs.

 

[thebjd]

Missouri being very good this season is not helping the path to a bowl game.

 

[NEVolFan]

Very Slim.....but a chance.

 

[99gator]

the main difficulty appears to be that missouri and auburn are both better football teams than expected.

both are ranked right now, but i don't know for how long. but, they are both going to be bowling and did not go bowling last year.

 

[Catbone]

Sounds right to me

 

[TNVolunteerGrad]

I'm ticked that Auburn and Mizzou are good. Not only is Mizzou good, but they could win the East potentially.

 

[Batman1948]

I like my math better. 100% chance we will be in a bowl game when we win 6 games. That is all. It really doesn't matter who we beat, as long as we win a total of 6 games. There's a long way to go and injuries will play a major part in the outcome of each game. We avoid major injuries and we win 6 games.

 

[daj2576]

Based on my findings and talent evaluations, I would say it like this:

There is a 70% chance that we win tomorrow, a 30% chance we beat Bama, a 70% chance we win against Mizzou, a 30% chance we beat Auburn, a 70% chance that we beat Vandy, and a 70% chance that we beat Kentucky.

Those are all independent events and are based on long term studies of talent averages' effect on predicting individual games (in other words 70% of the time the team with a higher talent average wins the game).

It's like I am selling "Sex Panther"...60% of the time, it works, every time!

 

[daj2576]

I'm ticked that Auburn and Mizzou are good. Not only is Mizzou good, but they could win the East potentially.

I hear this frequently. Help me understand how good Mizzou is. They beat UGA, whose offense was totally hobbled after the UT game and whose defense is not performing all that well.

Every other game they played has been against a team who hasn't recruited in the top 40.

With that data, it is really difficult for me to determine how good Mizzou is. They have performed as talent should expect except for UGA. The injuries at UGA indict that victory as being of questionable significance.

 

[ballou1024]

Not only do we have a difficult schedule, but most of our opponents have tough games as well! I like our chances against Mizzou, Auburn, Vandy and Kentucky. We have to play the way we did against Georgia to be USCe tomorrow and play our best against Alabama, but we can do it!

 

[volger]

I'm ticked that Auburn and Mizzou are good. Not only is Mizzou good, but they could win the East potentially.

Mizzou has UF, SC, back to back. They have had a cupcake schedule till UGA. Lost starting QB. I'm not going to crown them just yet. Let's see how they handle UF first. That will be the first real test.

 

[vols4evah]

I hear this frequently. Help me understand how good Mizzou is. They beat UGA, whose offense was totally hobbled after the UT game and whose defense is not performing all that well.

Every other game they played has been against a team who hasn't recruited in the top 40.

With that data, it is really difficult for me to determine how good Mizzou is. They have performed as talent should expect except for UGA. The injuries at UGA indict that victory as being of questionable significance.

I agree the UGA team they faced was a shell of the team we faced. we cost them 2 or 3 starters.

 

[Glocker_Alum_2005]

Check out the brain on Brad!

 

[Rudy123]

What exactly are our chances of becoming bowl eligible?

To find out, we just need the odds that we win in each of the games left on our schedule:

IF our chances are

South Carolina: 30% (based on betting line - pessimistic in my opinion)

Alabama: 6% (based on betting line - about right)

Missouri: 40% (conservative est.)

Auburn: 45% (conservative est.)

Vandy: 65% (conservative est.)

Kentucky: 60% (conservative est.)

THEN we can calculate the probabilities

There is:

*a 48.1% chance we become bowl eligible.

* a 17.14% chance we finish 7-5 or better.

* a 2.94% chance we finishing 8-4 or better.

* a .13% chance we win out.

So even with a conservative estimate, we have a good shot at making a bowl, but . . .

If we pull the upset against South Carolina, our chances of becoming bowl eligible increase to 74.3%!

If we lose tomorrow . . .

Our chances of becoming bowl eligible decreases to 36.9%.

In short, this is a huge, huge game for our bowl chances.

Slim chance or Fat chance!!!!! We have 3 wins but we can reasonably get two more wins against Kentucky and Vandy but that 6th win may elude us.

The 6th will either come from USC, O bama, Missouri or Auburn.

I don't see us favored in any of those games. USC is ranked. O Bama is ranked # 1 in the nation. Missouri is ranked and Auburn is ranked now at # 24. Of course, once Auburn loses to A & M tomorrow, they will fall from the top #25, but those four teams are all better than us TALENT wise.

A moral win won't get it done. Losing to O Bama by 3 won't get us in the bowl game.

 

[Rifleman]

Based on my findings and talent evaluations, I would say it like this:

There is a 70% chance that we win tomorrow, a 30% chance we beat Bama, a 70% chance we win against Mizzou, a 30% chance we beat Auburn, a 70% chance that we beat Vandy, and a 70% chance that we beat Kentucky.

Those are all independent events and are based on long term studies of talent averages' effect on predicting individual games (in other words 70% of the time the team with a higher talent average wins the game).

It's like I am selling "Sex Panther"...60% of the time, it works, every time!

I hope you're numbers are correct as that would give us a 79.4% chance of going to a bowl! Either way, winning tomorrow will eliminate a lot of anxiety.

My rough model makes South Carolina a slight favorite today, but I'm putting my thumb on the scale and picking the Vols anyway.

 

[Rifleman]

I like my math better. 100% chance we will be in a bowl game when we win 6 games. That is all. It really doesn't matter who we beat, as long as we win a total of 6 games. There's a long way to go and injuries will play a major part in the outcome of each game. We avoid major injuries and we win 6 games.

Probably the healthiest way to look at it!

 

[Rifleman]

I hear this frequently. Help me understand how good Mizzou is. They beat UGA, whose offense was totally hobbled after the UT game and whose defense is not performing all that well.

Every other game they played has been against a team who hasn't recruited in the top 40.

With that data, it is really difficult for me to determine how good Mizzou is. They have performed as talent should expect except for UGA. The injuries at UGA indict that victory as being of questionable significance.

Georgia also saved up all their turnovers for that game. Murray had a pick at the end that looked like the QB for Western Kentucky.

If they had turned it over 4 times in Neyland, we'd have crushed them too. But they didn't, so we have to beat someone else we aren't supposed to beat.

 

[jimallvol]

I would love to go bowling this ur but I just don't see it happening. I hope I'm wrong. GO VOLS!

 

[ImportedVoL]

Slim chance or Fat chance!!!!! We have 3 wins but we can reasonably get two more wins against Kentucky and Vandy but that 6th win may elude us.

The 6th will either come from USC, O bama, Missouri or Auburn.

I don't see us favored in any of those games. USC is ranked. O Bama is ranked # 1 in the nation. Missouri is ranked and Auburn is ranked now at # 24. Of course, once Auburn loses to A & M tomorrow, they will fall from the top #25, but those four teams are all better than us TALENT wise.

A moral win won't get it done. Losing to O Bama by 3 won't get us in the bowl game.

So tired of this talent crap... This is Tennessee and those teams are not ahead of us in talent. And our guys will prove it.

We going to win vs USCjr.. then we gonna beat the hell out of Mizzou... then we gonna stomp Auburn... Then we guna feast upon vandy... then we are going to demolish kentucky...

Finish 8-4... Kill whoever we go bowling against and finish with a 9 win season when all of the tard monkeys said we would be lucky to even make it to a bowl...

Make them eat their words... and let it be known UT is to be feared once more..

Get with it or get out of the way...

 

[BigOrangeLoyalist]

I like that you put all this up in percentages. I am a percentage guy. Unfortunately, percentages in this case are usually pretty speculatory. But if we are going to speculate percentages, I'll give it my go, and you can tell me the likelihood that we reach a bowl:

USC: 40% chance we win. The USC defense hasn't given up big numbers except to UGA, but that was when UGA was almost completely healthy and had Gurshall in the backfield. Plus, they beat UCF, and even though it was close, UCF just showed against Louisville what kind of little surprise-you team they are. Fortunately, we usually play USC pretty close, and we're at home. The main factor here will be putting pressure on Shaw and keeping him the pocket. His legs will hurt us.

Alabama: They displayed that they don't have the defense like they did in the past. Colorado and Kentucky showed that, and although Johnny Football is Johnny Football, A&M put up 42 on them. This one really depends on how well our defense steps up against McCarron, Cooper, and Yeldon, but overall I think we are simply outmatched. Only about a 5% we pull this one out.

Mizzou: It helps our chances here that Franklin is out, but their back up QB is nearly as good, and according to some, a better athlete. We should be able to move the ball decently against their defense, but their offense will similarly move the ball well against us. Like USC, we have to contain the QB, but being in Missouri, I'd say our chances of winning this one are about 45%.

Auburn: I hate to say it, but Auburn is actually pretty decent this year. Although they were horrid last year, they have a lot of talent on the team, and picked up even more star talent in the offseason, ala Carl Lawson and co. Plus, they've also got that dual-threat QB. Hopefully by this point, we'll have learned how to defend it a little bit, but how well we do on the field is a different story. Even though it's at home, we've struggled with Auburn quite a bit in recent memory, and this one really could go either way. Unless we beat USC or Mizzou, the odds are going to be in their favor, but I'd prefer to go in as underdogs. Chances, about 50%.

Vanderbilt: This team is not the team that they were a year ago, but even that team didn't really beat any quality teams (ourselves included). We were deflated when we played them last year, and had Deer-in-Headlights Dooley at the helm. This year, we'll be wanting some revenge against our in-state rivals, and although they'll be able to move the ball effectively, I think our offense will do the same. Expect a high-ish scoring game (but not something like Baylor does), but our D will step up and we'll win. I'd say about 65% here.

Kentucky: Kentucky is just Kentucky. Yes, they usually play us closer at home than they do on the road, but we have a better defense, offense, and special teams. If this game determines our 7th or 8th win, expect it to be close, but if it's a competition for bowl eligibility, I think we will go in with focus and determination and absolutely cream them. I'd say odds here are about 80% that we win.

 

[utvolkyle06]

Inb4
So you are saying there is a chance?

 

[mdrew27]

It's like Money football

 

[utvolkyle06]

On a serious note here is how it will play out:
If we only win five games the Negavols will say CBJ cannot get it done.
The sunshine pumpers will point to recruiting, change of culture and say wait to next year.

If we go to a bowl game:
The sunshine pumpers will say, see we told you so! Next year SEC winner and the year after the National Championship
The Negavols will say CBJ got lucky, it will still be five years before we are relevant and how come other schools turned it around faster?

Either way Volnation will be rocking and outrageous fun and Freak will be busy as ever trying to keep up.

GBO!

 

[Rifleman]

I like that you put all this up in percentages. I am a percentage guy. Unfortunately, percentages in this case are usually pretty speculatory. But if we are going to speculate percentages, I'll give it my go, and you can tell me the likelihood that we reach a bowl:

USC: 40% chance we win. The USC defense hasn't given up big numbers except to UGA, but that was when UGA was almost completely healthy and had Gurshall in the backfield. Plus, they beat UCF, and even though it was close, UCF just showed against Louisville what kind of little surprise-you team they are. Fortunately, we usually play USC pretty close, and we're at home. The main factor here will be putting pressure on Shaw and keeping him the pocket. His legs will hurt us.

Alabama: They displayed that they don't have the defense like they did in the past. Colorado and Kentucky showed that, and although Johnny Football is Johnny Football, A&M put up 42 on them. This one really depends on how well our defense steps up against McCarron, Cooper, and Yeldon, but overall I think we are simply outmatched. Only about a 5% we pull this one out.

Mizzou: It helps our chances here that Franklin is out, but their back up QB is nearly as good, and according to some, a better athlete. We should be able to move the ball decently against their defense, but their offense will similarly move the ball well against us. Like USC, we have to contain the QB, but being in Missouri, I'd say our chances of winning this one are about 45%.

Auburn: I hate to say it, but Auburn is actually pretty decent this year. Although they were horrid last year, they have a lot of talent on the team, and picked up even more star talent in the offseason, ala Carl Lawson and co. Plus, they've also got that dual-threat QB. Hopefully by this point, we'll have learned how to defend it a little bit, but how well we do on the field is a different story. Even though it's at home, we've struggled with Auburn quite a bit in recent memory, and this one really could go either way. Unless we beat USC or Mizzou, the odds are going to be in their favor, but I'd prefer to go in as underdogs. Chances, about 50%.

Vanderbilt: This team is not the team that they were a year ago, but even that team didn't really beat any quality teams (ourselves included). We were deflated when we played them last year, and had Deer-in-Headlights Dooley at the helm. This year, we'll be wanting some revenge against our in-state rivals, and although they'll be able to move the ball effectively, I think our offense will do the same. Expect a high-ish scoring game (but not something like Baylor does), but our D will step up and we'll win. I'd say about 65% here.

Kentucky: Kentucky is just Kentucky. Yes, they usually play us closer at home than they do on the road, but we have a better defense, offense, and special teams. If this game determines our 7th or 8th win, expect it to be close, but if it's a competition for bowl eligibility, I think we will go in with focus and determination and absolutely cream them. I'd say odds here are about 80% that we win.

Great write up. I think you are pretty much on target. This would give us a 62.9% chance of making a bowl if that is truly the lay of the land, with that going up to 84% with a win today.

It is very hard to get a true handle on some of these teams, but that is college football for you. I'd be a lot more comfortable with a scenario where we just need 1 win going into the final two games, but I'll take a bowl any way it comes at this point.

Luckily, I think our coaches and players are tuned in for this game. I can't imagine how huge it is going to be to have 200 former Vols running through the T with our guys. I think my heart would explode if I was one of those guys. Talk about adrenaline!