Bowl Eligible: What are Our Chances? Here's the Math.

#26
#26
mdrew27 said:
It's like Money football
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I think college football has been ahead of the curve for a long time compared to baseball.

Part of this is because the coaches can't rely on middle men to evaluate all the talent. You really need to develop some understanding of what measurables you are looking for, then you have to go into that living room and meet the kid and his guardians. Then you really have to think about where each recruit is mentally and how they fit your group. Notice the camaraderie among our commits. No accident.

It is getting even more challenging now. In the past the best teams would just over-recruit and sort it out later. Now that won't get you an SEC West title, much less the big prize. You have to put together a team from day one.
 
#29
#29
A win today changes all the math and there is hope because of the Georgia game. The hope being that we are far better team today than when we played Oregon and Florida.
 
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#31
#31
thebjd said:
Missouri being very good this season is not helping the path to a bowl game.
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If we had Missouri's schedule and faced a depleted UGA who turns the ball over four times we would also be undefeated.

Missouri is seriously overrated by too many people. If they win more than 1 of their final 6 games I'll be surprised.
 
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#32
#32
Rifleman said:
What exactly are our chances of becoming bowl eligible?

To find out, we just need the odds that we win in each of the games left on our schedule:

IF our chances are

South Carolina: 30% (based on betting line - pessimistic in my opinion)

Alabama: 6% (based on betting line - about right)

Missouri: 40% (conservative est.)

Auburn: 45% (conservative est.)

Vandy: 65% (conservative est.)

Kentucky: 60% (conservative est.)

THEN we can calculate the probabilities

There is:

*a 48.1% chance we become bowl eligible.

* a 17.14% chance we finish 7-5 or better.

* a 2.94% chance we finishing 8-4 or better.

* a .13% chance we win out.

So even with a conservative estimate, we have a good shot at making a bowl, but . . .

If we pull the upset against South Carolina, our chances of becoming bowl eligible increase to 74.3%!

If we lose tomorrow . . .

Our chances of becoming bowl eligible decreases to 36.9%.

In short, this is a huge, huge game for our bowl chances.
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Thanks!
 
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#34
#34
SecondYearVol said:
I'm ticked that Auburn and Mizzou are good. Not only is Mizzou good, but they could win the East potentially.
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We'll see how the backup Mizz QB does today. So much of their O revolves around Franklin. They were terrible without him last year (though, OF COURSE, the light went on for him at halftime of our game after he came back in time for us).

They do have some good WRs also. Their game with the gators is very interesting to me, because we likely will also face their backup QB.

Speaking of which, I do not share the superstition that just because LSU beat us twice in the SECC with backup QBs that "we always make the backup QB look good". Even if I bought that, those games were under a completely different coaching staff with different players. How does that translate to us making a backup look good now?

Shouldn't look ahead too much though...let's beat the ole ball sack! Errrr...coach. :)
 
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#38
#38
ScreaminVolHawkins said:
how do you represent dooley as a mathematical factor?
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I think the guy at cfbmatrix.com had Dooley effect as -2 wins. Last year he did that easily.

Having Sal Sunseri as your DC has roughly the effect of a black hole. Wins are torn apart and disappear into the anomaly of his gravitational incompetence.
 
#39
#39
Updating my math and the original post based on today's win.

To find out our chances at becoming bowl eligible, we just need the odds that we win in each of the games left on our schedule:

IF our chances are

South Carolina: 100% (yep, we beat 'em!)

Alabama: 6% (based on betting line)

Missouri: 40% (conservative est.)

Auburn: 45% (conservative est.)

Vandy: 65% (conservative est.)

Kentucky: 60% (conservative est.)

THEN we can calculate the probabilities

There is:

*a 74.4% chance we become bowl eligible, up from 48.1%

* a 36.9% we finish 7-5 or better, up from 17.14%.

* a 8.8% chance we finishing 8-4 or better, up from 2.94%.

* a .42% chance we win out.

So even with a conservative estimates, we now have a great shot at making a bowl, but . . .

Had we lost to the Gamecocks, our chances of becoming bowl eligible would have decreased to 36.9%.

In short, this was a huge, huge game for our bowl chances.
 
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#40
#40
Rifleman said:
I hope you're numbers are correct as that would give us a 79.4% chance of going to a bowl! Either way, winning tomorrow will eliminate a lot of anxiety.

My rough model makes South Carolina a slight favorite today, but I'm putting my thumb on the scale and picking the Vols anyway.
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I have looked at recruiting evaluations like this back to 2005. It is basically as I said: the team with the higher four year talent average will win over a lower ranked team 70% of the time. That jumps to 90% during BCS title game appearances.

Jones averages winning 2 to 3 more games a year than his talent predicts, just not in his first year at a school. Right now, we are talent +0 (or exactly where talent would predict we should be).

For comparison, Florida is talent -2, but Muschamp has plenty of season to get back to his talent average of -3. I agree with Dave Bartoo of cfbmatrix.com who says that Muschamp should be on the clock (meaning, that dudes seat should be terribly hot due to talent differentials. However most Florida fans are reluctant to admit that).

Ole Miss is talent +1 because of their win over Texas, but I am afraid that is more due to Brown being the largest under-achieving coach in the country now that Kiff is gone. I could go on and on, but you get the point.

As I have said since I crunched these numbers right after signing day in February, our season should look about like this when all is said and done:

Also see here: http://www.volnation.com/forum/tenn...027-season-half-over-what-does-remainder.html
 

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#41
#41
daj2576 said:
I have looked at recruiting evaluations like this back to 2005. It is basically as I said: the team with the higher four year talent average will win over a lower ranked team 70% of the time. That jumps to 90% during BCS title game appearances.

Jones averages winning 2 to 3 more games a year than his talent predicts, just not in his first year at a school. Right now, we are talent +0 (or exactly where talent would predict we should be).

For comparison, Florida is talent -2, but Muschamp has plenty of season to get back to his talent average of -3. I agree with Dave Bartoo of cfbmatrix.com who says that Muschamp should be on the clock (meaning, that dudes seat should be terribly hot due to talent differentials. However most Florida fans are reluctant to admit that).

Ole Miss is talent +1 because of their win over Texas, but I am afraid that is more due to Brown being the largest under-achieving coach in the country now that Kiff is gone. I could go on and on, but you get the point.

As I have said since I crunched these numbers right after signing day in February, our season should look about like this when all is said and done:

Also see here: http://www.volnation.com/forum/tenn...027-season-half-over-what-does-remainder.html
Click to expand...


Fascinating stuff. Thanks for posting.

The only game over the weekend that really seemed out of whack with any expectations was Florida vs. Mizzou. Not because Florida lost, but because of how dominant Mizzou was in that game.

Is Mizzou really that good? Or is Florida just giving up at this point?
 
#42
#42
99gator said:
the main difficulty appears to be that missouri and auburn are both better football teams than expected.

both are ranked right now, but i don't know for how long. but, they are both going to be bowling and did not go bowling last year.
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What are the chances UF goes 5-7?

UGA
Vandy
@ SC
OOC Walkover
Lock Loss (FSU)
 
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#43
#43
Updating my bowl probability math based on the Bama loss and best information I can find online for what our odds are in the final 4 games.

To find out our chances at becoming bowl eligible, we just need the odds that we win in each of the games left on our schedule:

IF our chances are

Missouri: 25% (+13 point dog)

Auburn: 30% (Tigers will be favored)

Vandy: 66% (We will be favored)

Kentucky: 75% (We will be favored)

THEN we can calculate the probabilities

There is:

*a 70% chance we become bowl eligible

* a 26% we finish 7-5 or better

* a 3.7% chance we win out

If we can get the win at Mizzou, then our chances ramp up to 94%. I hope we get that win and give ourselves 3 good shots at becoming bowl eligible.
 
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#44
#44
Rifleman said:
Updating my bowl probability math based on the Bama loss and best information I can find online for what our odds are in the final 4 games.

To find out our chances at becoming bowl eligible, we just need the odds that we win in each of the games left on our schedule:

IF our chances are

Missouri: 25% (+13 point dog)

Auburn: 30% (Tigers will be favored)

Vandy: 66% (We will be favored)

Kentucky: 75% (We will be favored)

THEN we can calculate the probabilities

There is:

*a 70% chance we become bowl eligible

* a 26% we finish 7-5 or better

* a 3.7% chance we win out

If win can get the win at Mizzou, then our chances ramp up to 94%. I hope we get that win and give ourselves 3 good shots at becoming bowl eligible.
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Well done
 
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#45
#45
Rifleman said:
Fascinating stuff. Thanks for posting.

The only game over the weekend that really seemed out of whack with any expectations was Florida vs. Mizzou. Not because Florida lost, but because of how dominant Mizzou was in that game.

Is Mizzou really that good? Or is Florida just giving up at this point?
Click to expand...

Here is another interesting angle, this time from Dave Bartoo who is a numbers cruncher like myself. Our systems are very similar. I wish I had known about him last year instead of spending hours upon hours retreading the ground he had already covered.

Tennenessee Vols 2013 Football Preview

Bartoo and I part ways on certain portions of our evaluations, but he has much more data published than I ever will be able to do.
 
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#46
#46
daj2576 said:
Here is another interesting angle, this time from Dave Bartoo who is a numbers cruncher like myself. Our systems are very similar. I wish I had known about him last year instead of spending hours upon hours retreading the ground he had already covered.

Tennenessee Vols 2013 Football Preview

Bartoo and I part ways on certain portions of our evaluations, but he has much more data published than I ever will be able to do.
Click to expand...

I like that he has us winning the last 4 games, for sure! Hope it pans out that way.
 
#47
#47
Sadly, the loss at Mizzou now makes us a slight underdog to get to a bowl game.

Based on the best information I can find online for what our odds are in the final 3 games:

IF our chances are

Auburn: 29% (Tigers heavily favored)

Vandy: 58% (We may be favored by more if we show up Saturday)

Kentucky: 72% (They are bad. We are bad on the road.)

THEN we can calculate the probabilities

There is:

* a 44% chance we become bowl eligible

* a 12% we win out

If we can score the upset versus Barn, then our chances ramp up to 58%.

We need another great home effort like we had against USC and Georgia.
 
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