Bracket Imbalances-NCAA Tourney

[Sudden Impact]

The Selection Committee gets An F
In the past the top 4 Seeds of each region normally has a 32 to 38 aver per bracket
Lowest I have seen is a 31 the highest I have seen is a 38.
This year has shown that the committee actually did nothing with Rankings or Metrics...
I have attached a Breakdown of each region based on NET, BPI, POM, SAG & RPI for your viewing Pleasure.

 

[ftsandersvol]

Edit: Increase gif size.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

Hard to hide Providence’s bad numbers in any bracket, but you’re right. Bad year for the committee.

 

[Sudden Impact]

Providence and Wisconsin are ????

ReBracketed.

East --- Kentucky, Baylor, Duke, Arkansas ----- 43.6
MidWest --- Kansas, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Illinois --- 42.2
South ---- Arizona, Villanova, Purdue, Wisconsin --- 45.4
West ---- Gonzaga, UCLA, Auburn, Providence --- 56

They can apply Geography after they get the Teams in right. Wisconsin and Providence have no business being a 3 or 4 seed.

 

[Sudden Impact]

My Witch Doctor once said "Numbers don't lie, but liars and Politicans figure Numbers"

 

[VolPack22]

Gave Kansas a cakewalk for sure.

 

[hUTch2002]

The Selection Committee gets An F
In the past the top 4 Seeds of each region normally has a 32 to 38 aver per bracket
Lowest I have seen is a 31 the highest I have seen is a 38.
This year has shown that the committee actually did nothing with Rankings or Metrics...
I have attached a Breakdown of each region based on NET, BPI, POM, SAG & RPI for your viewing Pleasure.

View attachment 439639

Before I look at this my perception is we are in the toughest bracket but a lot of that is because of us. When I look at the brackets I only see 2-3 teams in each that are capable of making the championship game. In our brackets I see 4-5. For that reason I believe our bracket will be the messy one. There’s always one that’s just a mess and I think that might be ours. The one with Kansas as a 1 might also be somewhat messy. The left side with Gonzaga and Baylor will hold more true to the seeding from what I see.

 

[hUTch2002]

The Selection Committee gets An F
In the past the top 4 Seeds of each region normally has a 32 to 38 aver per bracket
Lowest I have seen is a 31 the highest I have seen is a 38.
This year has shown that the committee actually did nothing with Rankings or Metrics...
I have attached a Breakdown of each region based on NET, BPI, POM, SAG & RPI for your viewing Pleasure.

View attachment 439639

Well I was wrong based on your analysis but if drop down to the top 5 seeds I guarantee ours is tougher because then you pick up Houston at the 5 and their metrics are way better than a 5 seed.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

I noticed this as well. Kansas's region (Midwest) is super-soft. Providence is very overrated. Auburn got rewarded for playing poorly down the stretch, because they have the easiest draw of any SEC team. On the flipside, Iowa is underseeded (once again, the theme of teams playing well in Feb / Mar were completely ignored); but still this is the easiest region by far.

Kentucky's region is brutal. 2nd round game against Murray State / San Fran winner is probably one of the worst draws you could get. Va Tech is severely underrated as well; should've been a 6 or 7; instead got an 11 seed since the committee didn't watch games the past 6 weeks. Purdue seems legit to me, as well. And then Elite 8 potential match-ups include UCLA, Saint Mary's, and Baylor.

Our region is mixed. The difficult part is our region has a lot of good teams in it (Arizona, Villanova, and Houston). The upside is that we seem to have one of the easier paths to the Sweet 16. And maybe some of the stronger teams get knocked out by trickier matchups.

 

[ArmchairQB]

Before I look at this my perception is we are in the toughest bracket but a lot of that is because of us. When I look at the brackets I only see 2-3 teams in each that are capable of making the championship game. In our brackets I see 4-5. For that reason I believe our bracket will be the messy one. There’s always one that’s just a mess and I think that might be ours. The one with Kansas as a 1 might also be somewhat messy. The left side with Gonzaga and Baylor will hold more true to the seeding from what I see.

Houston as a 5 seed in the South is absurd. Houston: Net - 3, RPI - 8, BPI - 2, POM - 4, SAG - 5

 

[Sudden Impact]

Houston as a 5 seed in the South is absurd. Houston: Net - 3, RPI - 8, BPI - 2, POM - 4, SAG - 5

Only thing that you can say about Houston is that they are 1-4 Q1

Houston should have been a 3 or 4 seed and taken Providence out of the picture or Wisconsin. You could have put Texas in for the other and placed them in a different Region.
I have no idea what the committee was thinking......
They should have tightened up the brackets, they didn't.

I did this in less than an hour it took the Committee 4 weeks to provide us with the garbage.

Somebody should have handed them the Brackets back and stated "Redo, you really don't want to submit this Garbage"

 

[esarmstrong]

^^Everybody has been bitching about us, but I think Houston got hosed with their seeding as well.

 

[JoAllan]

Houston as a 5 seed in the South is absurd. Houston: Net - 3, RPI - 8, BPI - 2, POM - 4, SAG - 5

Their SOS is 52nd
1 Q1 win

Most of their good metrics are because they have beaten a lot (a freakin ton) of weak opponents by huge margins.

Not saying their bad or not good…….but beating weak teams by 20 or 30 all the time doesn’t necessarily make you one of the best teams in the country……..hence “human” rankings having them much lower.

 

[Sudden Impact]

Their SOS is 52nd
1 Q1 win

Most of their good metrics are because they have beaten a lot (a freakin ton) of weak opponents by huge margins.

Not saying their bad or not good…….but beating weak teams by 20 or 30 all the time doesn’t necessarily make you one of the best teams in the country……..hence “human” rankings having them much lower.

you want this to get interesting go to the AP Poll. SOS does not Matter look at Tennessee made no difference...

 

[Delmar]

Only thing that you can say about Houston is that they are 1-4 Q1

Houston should have been a 3 or 4 seed and taken Providence out of the picture or Wisconsin. You could have put Texas in for the other and placed them in a different Region.
I have no idea what the committee was thinking......
They should have tightened up the brackets, they didn't.

I did this in less than an hour it took the Committee 4 weeks to provide us with the garbage.

Somebody should have handed them the Brackets back and stated "Redo, you really don't want to submit this Garbage"

Yep. One Q1 win and they lost both starting guards including their best player, Sasser, for the year. They struggled badly the last month of the season. Finally got another decent win in the AAC title game beating Memphis. Considering all that a 5 seed is about right. Great record piled up against nobody.

 

[JoAllan]

Also Providence big East champ 4 seed
Illinois big 10 champ 4 seed
UCLA & Arkansas 4 seed

Those 4 seeds are really solid. Not saying their better but better SOS and better wins and more Q1 wins……vs simply beating weaker teams by a ton.

 

[hUTch2002]

Also Providence big East champ 4 seed
Illinois big 10 champ 4 seed
UCLA & Arkansas 4 seed

Those 4 seeds are really solid. Not saying their better but better SOS and better wins and more Q1 wins……vs simply beating weaker teams by a ton.

Actually, I think at least 2 of them lose in the first round. I like Vermont and South Dakota St. I like UTC as well so it’s possible all 3 win but odds are that won’t happen. I believe more 13 seeds will win than 12 seeds. The only 12 seed that might win is the winner from tonight, and I believe that will be IU. But it’s entirely possible that all 5 seeds win this year.

 

[ArmchairQB]

Their SOS is 52nd
1 Q1 win

Most of their good metrics are because they have beaten a lot (a freakin ton) of weak opponents by huge margins.

Not saying their bad or not good…….but beating weak teams by 20 or 30 all the time doesn’t necessarily make you one of the best teams in the country……..hence “human” rankings having them much lower.

They'll be interesting I think. I haven't really followed them or anything but they lost to Wisconsin by 2 on a neutral court, lost at Alabama by 1. They sprinkled just enough ACC, B1G, SEC, PAC12, BIG12 in their schedule to get the computers to love them, I guess. They'll either be a spectacular dud or maybe like Calipari-at-Memphis-lite. If nothing else they should be irked for the same reason we should, because we thought metrics were supposed to matter until suddenly they didn't.

 

[JoAllan]

Actually, I think at least 2 of them lose in the first round. I like Vermont and South Dakota St. I like UTC as well so it’s possible all 3 win but odds are that won’t happen. I believe more 13 seeds will win than 12 seeds. The only 12 seed that might win is the winner from tonight, and I believe that will be IU. But it’s entirely possible that all 5 seeds win this year.

I see lots of folks having UConn losing here, I think I’d have them losing in the next.

I really like Chattanooga, but “for me” this is a tough matchup. Illinois “might” be too tough down low.

Lots of folks like Vermont…..but Arkansas has two studs and they can score and they gots a good D.

I could definitely see some upsets happening here……..I just didn’t pick any here.

 

[JoAllan]

They'll be interesting I think. I haven't really followed them or anything but they lost to Wisconsin by 2 on a neutral court, lost at Alabama by 1. They sprinkled just enough ACC, B1G, SEC, PAC12, BIG12 in their schedule to get the computers to love them, I guess. They'll either be a spectacular dud or maybe like Calipari-at-Memphis-lite. If nothing else they should be irked for the same reason we should, because we thought metrics were supposed to matter until suddenly they didn't.

Even with their missing starters they gots a good D and an amazing scoring D. They “should” be able to keep almost any game close……and that gives you a chance even vs better teams.

 

[i2amavol]

I see lots of folks having UConn losing here, I think I’d have them losing in the next.

I really like Chattanooga, but “for me” this is a tough matchup. Illinois “might” be too tough down low.

Lots of folks like Vermont…..but Arkansas has two studs and they can score and they gots a good D.

I could definitely see some upsets happening here……..I just didn’t pick any here.

I'm not sure they are final 4 good, but that defense can be killer. In addition, you can get them down, but it is hard to finish them off. I hope we don't have to play them again.

 

[i2amavol]

The Selection Committee gets An F
In the past the top 4 Seeds of each region normally has a 32 to 38 aver per bracket
Lowest I have seen is a 31 the highest I have seen is a 38.
This year has shown that the committee actually did nothing with Rankings or Metrics...
I have attached a Breakdown of each region based on NET, BPI, POM, SAG & RPI for your viewing Pleasure.

View attachment 439639

Good analysis. I don't think they were scientific about it. Very political, it seems.

 

[HalfullVol]

These guys maybe should’ve made it and this is a strong reaction

 

[HalfullVol]

The Selection Committee gets An F
In the past the top 4 Seeds of each region normally has a 32 to 38 aver per bracket
Lowest I have seen is a 31 the highest I have seen is a 38.
This year has shown that the committee actually did nothing with Rankings or Metrics...
I have attached a Breakdown of each region based on NET, BPI, POM, SAG & RPI for your viewing Pleasure.

View attachment 439639

very insightful and thanks for sharing your work with us.

these analytics are very telling about the lack of effort put into making these brackets fairly constructed based on these specific parameters.

HOWEVER, you fail to mention, as the NCAA has stated for the past several days that you're not considering the "whole body of work" - that statement in and of itself is horse shiite.

LOL

 

[ZZ13]

These guys maybe should’ve made it and this is a strong reaction

Has anyone in the media posted his analysis that he handed out?