For a second straight March, the Iowa Hawkeyes had to endure lots of bubble talk in the final 72 hours before the brackets were unveiled. But this time, the Hawkeyes are in the field of 68. Fran McCaffery's squad was an NCAA tournament lock in mid-February before limping home with a 1-6 mark in its final seven games, including an ugly loss to Northwestern in the Big Ten tournament. Will this deep squad regain its form and make the most of an invite to the NCAA hoops party of the year?
TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: Xavier, Nebraska, at Ohio State, Michigan
Worst losses: Illinois, vs. Northwestern in Big Ten tourney
Conference finish: 6th, Big Ten
Polls and metrics: The Hawkeyes are in the field of 68 with an RPI of 53 and a BPI of 22.
All-time tourney record: 27-24, three Final Fours
Coach's tourney record: Fran McCaffery (2-5)
PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are for the regular season only.)
Starting lineup
Pos. - Name - PPG - MPG
C - Adam Woodbury - 5.4 - 16.5
F - Melsahn Basabe - 7.5 - 18.1
F - Aaron White - 13.0 - 27.9
G - Roy Devyn Marble - 17.3 - 30.0
G - Mike Gesell - 8.1 - 23.9
Key bench players
Pos. - Name - PPG - MPG
G - Josh Oglesby - 6.7 - 19.6
F - Jarrod Uthoff - 7.7 - 18.2
C - Gabriel Olaseni - 6.6 - 16.7
Biggest strength: McCaffery has brought an up-tempo style to Iowa, playing 10 guys per night and getting contributions from everyone. The Hawkeyes' depth allows them to score like crazy and hit the backboards hard. In fact, Iowa is one of the best rebounding teams in America, finishing seventh in the nation in rebounding this season in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten.
Biggest weakness: The Hawkeyes can score, but their defense has slipped greatly down the stretch. Also, sophomore point guard Mike Gesell's shooting aim is suspect. A 8.1 PPG scorer, Gesell is shooting just 38.1 percent from the field and missed all 10 of his shot attempts in the Big Ten tourney loss to Northwestern.
Best player: Roy Devyn Marble. The son of former Iowa star Roy Marble is extremely versatile. A first-team All-Big Ten performer, Marble is capable of playing shooting guard or small forward and leads the Hawkeyes in scoring (17.3 PPG) and minutes (30.0).
X factor: Aaron White. The 6-foot-8 White is the only Big Ten player to shoot better than 55 percent from floor and better than 80 percent from the free throw line this season.
SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: In McCaffery's up-tempo attack, the Hawkeyes have license to shoot and hope to wear down the opposition with waves of substitutions. The go-to guys in this fast-paced approach are Marble and White, but high-octane Iowa has eight other players averaging between 4.2 and 8.1 points per game.
Defensive approach: McCaffery has depth, so his half-court defense can apply great on-the-ball pressure at all times. The Hawkeyes throw the kitchen sink at opposing teams -- playing some three-quarter-court pressure, some zone and some half-court traps in hopes of seducing you into a faster pace and tiring you out in the process.
How they beat you: The Hawkeyes win games with their strength-in-numbers approach, giving 10 guys plenty of playing time to keep fresh legs in the game. It's worked thus far as the Hawkeyes average a healthy 82 points per game.
How you beat them: Iowa wants to play at warp speed, figuring it has more depth than most teams; therefore the more possessions, the better. If you're able to slow the Hawkeyes down and turn it into an ugly, grind-it-out game, you increase your odds of upending them because their defense has slipped and they aren't comfortable when the pace is slowed to a crawl.
WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 9.)
Category: Stat (Nat'l rank)
Offensive efficiency: 120.7 (4)
Defensive efficiency: 101.4 (105)
3-point percentage: 35.8 (108)
3-point percentage D: 31.4 (44)
Free throw rate: 46.4 (48)
Free throw rate D: 34.9 (65)
TO percentage: 16.0 (36)
TO percentage D: 18.9 (133)
Good stat: 120.7 offensive efficiency rating
The Hawkeyes are No. 4 in the nation in this category, which measures efficiency by calculating how many points a team scores per 100 possessions. Only Creighton, Duke and Michigan featured more efficient offenses this season.
Bad stat: 101.4 defensive efficiency rating
The Hawkeyes were one of the best teams in the country in per-possession ratings defense in mid-February. But during a late-season swoon, Iowa's defense sprung a leak and the Hawkeyes sputtered down the stretch.
HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Round of 32 exit
The Hawkeyes are in the Big Dance for the first time since 2006 and certainly have the talent to hurdle their opening game. But Iowa's play down the stretch of a grueling Big Ten season may catch up with it after the opening bell.
Worst-case scenario: First round loss
Iowa has struggled for a few weeks and none of the Hawkeyes have been in the Big Dance before, so it's easy to see them flaming out in their first game.
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