Breaking Down the 150s

[DownNDirty]

Race #1:

Gilliland will get a good start and settle into the lead. I don't forsee Boris jeopardizing his car by making it 3 wide on the first lap as he's more likely to get in the middle of a 3 wide by an aggressive Jimmie Johnson. JJ and new teammate Casey Mears will tag up and run down Gilliland early on and make a move for the front. Gilliland will stay strong and stay in the top 5-10 until things get too hairy and they decide to park the pole sitting car or let him drop to the back of the pack. DG will show that the RYR car is strong but won't do anything to mess that piece up.

Ragan will get shuffled back early to around 8th-10th. He will hang around in the top 10 all day.

Said will run alright and show he has a good piece under him but not be a major factor. I see him in the 12th-18th range.

Sauter --- knowing him, will be aggressive and hang near the front for the first part of the race. Will slip back near the end of the fuel run and never be a factor again.

Jimmie Johnson --- Puts the car to the front of the pack early. Will lead throughout the race and will finish in the top 3.

Casey Mears --- look for a solid performance from Casey in his first time in his new ride. Top 10 for sure.

Hamlin --- will be a factor to win and get his chance out front. A top 5 finisher.

Mayfield --- looks to give his Yota a good run in the 150 and finish among the top 2 in the race within a race. Unless something weird happens I expect Mayfield to grab one of the two spots.

Stewart --- Going to be strong and get to the front within the first 5 laps. Will be strong enough to take the first 150.....with people slowly starting to whisper "is he the new Earnhardt at Daytona --- winning everything but the 500."

Truex --- It shouldn't be a shock but it will when he runs up front in this 150. Won't win but will quietly get a convincing top 7 or 8 run.

Dale Jr --- Will have to be content running around 5th. Maybe he'll surprise me but I don't think he'll be the strongest car in this race Thursday.

Labonte --- has a decent car that he'll translate into a top 15 run but nothing spectacular.

Waltrip --- providing he gets to race....will be the other car to transfer through this 150. Few can deny, even when he drove junk, that MW is one of the best plate drivers. Should do just enough to grab that other transfer spot.

J.Green --- This is a satellite Hendrick car so I can see it doing fairly well in the 150. A top 12-15 could be in order.

Biffle --- should do decent. I'm not so sure the Roush cars have it at Daytona this year though. I can't see him doing anything better than kicking around 10th.

Ward Burton --- a former 500 winner, with a former 500 winning team should equal success. Too bad that Morgan-McClure has fallen so far. Ward should be able to make up for the car with his drafting ability but in the end it won't be enough --- somewhere around 20th.

Petty --- nothing impressive, around 20th.

R.Gordon --- hasn't been up to snuff at DIS this year. Won't have a stellar run in the 150 but at least he can breathe this year knowing he's already in the race.

Blaney --- will bring his BDR car to a solid run in the top 12-16.

Allmendinger --- don't give up on Cup kid but making this 500 will be an uphill battle. I can see him hanging around with Ward hoping Mayfield or Waltrip will break or crash.

Bowyer --- will bring his car up to a good run only to falter in the pits and wind up around 22nd.

Elliott --- too bad DJ gets the PC provisional. Elliott will give it a go but not be a contender and not contend for one of the two spots either.

Sorenson --- With both teammates being fast Sorenson should show some muscle in his 150. 14-18 range when it all shakes out.

K.Wallace --- poor Herman. He'll be up there with Ward and Dinger battling for that 3rd outsider spot hoping Mayfield or Mikey blows it.

Schrader --- everyone knows how good of a plate driver he has been in the past. I think Kenny can get to the middle of the front pack but not make a run at the front.

Jarrett --- MWR is smart enough to know DJ can take advantage of the PC provisional and this will be another "test" run for the stable. They don't want him possibly bumping Mikey or Reutimann out of the 500 when he can fall back on the PCP. DJ won't be a factor when it comes down to the wire.

J.Burton --- can get through the pack but won't force the issue. Veteran driver knows his car should be good for the 500 and won't take many chances.

THE REST: Bliss, Barrett, Whitt, and Hylton will all kick around the back where they started. Bliss might get midpack but not a factor.

Predicted actual top 5:

1. Stewart 2. JJ 3. Hamlin 4. Earnhardt Jr 5. Mears

Race two to follow.........

 

[DownNDirty]

Race two:

The "big one" will occur in this race.....around lap 7-12. It will be started when someone gets loose off of turn 4 and all heck will break loose and those knocked out of the event will be: Stremme, Skinner, Newman, Harvick, Raines, Kurt Busch, Nemechek, Edwards, Cope, Wallace, and Kahne.

Rudd --- will do exactly what Gilliland did by leading early and then getting shuffled back and dropping to the back of the pack out of harms way.

Stremme --- wrong place, wrong time as he'll have a good car and get wiped out when the big one occurs right in front of him.

Juan Montoya --- stays ahead of the big one when it occurs he'll cruise into an 8th place run.

J.Gordon --- will be patient and avoid the big one by being out front. He'll be up there all day finishing 2nd.

S.Marlin --- even though he's already locked in he's going to have a very strong run and finish in the top 5.

Ky.Busch --- will have the strongest car in his 150 and get the win over his teammate Gordon.

Reutimann --- avoids the big one and comes home 11th, barely making the show as he'll have Vickers, Regan Smith, and Lepage eating his rear bumper on the last few laps.

JJ Yeley --- turns a few heads by running a very strong race and finishing 6th.

Sadler --- also avoids the big one and shows a solid car that just can't overcome Team Hendrick up front. Will try mightily but finish 3rd for his troubles.

R.Smith --- rookie with a fast car will try to draft with Martin during the race. Gets shuffled late and makes a run for the 2nd transfer spot coming up just a bit short.

P.Menard --- will bring the DEI car home in a solid 7th place, just trying to maintain his position late and assure himself a spot in the 500.

M.Martin --- will do his best to help teammate Smith get into the 500 but Smith will get shuffled late and Martin will have to abandon him giving himself a solid 10th place run.

Lepage --- too many strong cars this year for the magic man in the 150s. He'll be right there though, somehow, kicking up Vickers rear end.

Vickers --- will barely miss transferring to the 500, one spot behind Reutimann. Ah, who am I kidding, if it comes down to the last lap and he's one spot out behind DR then there may be another large crash on the last lap.

Scott Riggs --- will have a solid run but not anywhere near as good as his teammate Sadler. Fades late and finishes 9th.

Matt Kenseth --- will maneuver through the big wreck. Shows he has a solid car by bringing it home 5th.

Top 5:

1. Kyle Busch 2. Jeff Gordon 3. Elliott Sadler 4. Sterling Marlin 5. Matt Kenseth

Of course none of this will probably come true. I think there's a good chance a big wreck will occur in both races and my thoughts will be obselete. Just thought it would be fun to give it a shot and see if I even get anywhere in the ballpark....

 

[tidwell]

That's quite a foursome at the front of the first Twin... oye.

 

[JennVols]

You think Harvick will be knocked out of the race? :cray: