golfballs
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Among long shots, Tennessee Volunteers have best chance of reaching Texas - College Basketball - ESPN
After 52 tournament games, we're now down to 16 survivors and just three double-digit seeds: No. 10 seed Stanford and two No. 11 seeds, Tennessee and Dayton.
I'm not sure any of these teams are Cinderellas, strictly speaking. The Cardinal and the Volunteers are from major conferences and the Flyers come out of the Atlantic 10, which put no fewer than six teams into the tournament.
Therefore I'll refrain from pinning any label from a fairy tale on these survivors and will instead remark upon a plain fact. It's surprising they're all here.
Now, can any of them make the Final Four?
I think Tennessee has the best shot, but first let me give full credit to what Stanford and Dayton have been able to accomplish.
...
That being said, I think Tennessee has the best shot of any of these teams to make the Final Four. For starters, the Volunteers came into the tournament as the best of these three on paper. Put it this way: Dayton outscored the nation's No. 8-ranked league by 0.02 points per possession and Stanford outscored the No. 5-ranked conference by 0.03 points per trip, but Cuonzo Martin's team outscored the No. 6-ranked league by 0.14 points per possession.
The Vols have an ability that sets them apart in this three-team discussion. They can score. In three tournament games UT has recorded 1.28 points per possession. Tennessee has been particularly effective in the paint in the tournament, making 59 percent of its 2-point attempts. In fact, Jarnell Stokes has recorded a double-double in each of the Volunteers' three tournament games.
That ability to score in the paint should give the Volunteers a chance against Michigan in the Sweet 16. The Wolverines are relatively small on the interior, and Big Ten opponents had been successful all season long attacking the rim. In a game between the Vols and UM, don't be surprised if both teams can score a goodly number of points.
Any of these three double-digit seeds making the Final Four would qualify as a big upset, obviously. In the modern era, 116 teams have reached the national semifinals, and just three of those carried double-digit seeds: LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006 and Virginia Commonwealth in 2011. (All of those teams were No. 11 seeds, by the way.) But if any team is going to do it in 2014, I expect it to be Tennessee. The Volunteers have the offense, the personnel, the regular-season profile and the momentum to at least make it conceivable.