Can we beat Vandy?

#127
#127
Anybody who thought Vandy was going to be an easy win this year was foolish. Vandy simply has players for their system and a coach who not only develops his players, but also out coaches better teams. We will be out played and out coached Nov. 23.
 
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#128
#128
usmcvol4ever said:
Anybody who thought Vandy was going to be an easy win this year was foolish. Vandy simply has players for their system and a coach who not only develops his players, but also out coaches better teams. We will be out played and out coached Nov. 23.
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Maybe. But the Vols still win this one. It is a must win for Jones, it is at home, after a bye week. Those factors alone make it very difficult to expect a win for Vandy. UT has better talent across the board, and while Vandy has confidence, if you look at their victories in context they beat both UGA and UF who were ghosts of the teams that UT played. Can Vandy win, sure. Will Vandy win, doubtful. It won't be easy, and I am not expecting a blow-out. All that matters is a W, and it is more likely than not.
 
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#129
#129
The last three games we have only two offensive TD's, one defensive TD, and 5 field goals. If we want to have a chance against Vandy, anyone on this roster capable of increasing our chance to win should be in the game regardless of their eligibility status. Playmakers are welcome on both sides of the ball now.
 
#131
#131
RockyTop411 said:
I will be shocked if we don't win by 14+.
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Have you been watching our team lately? I don't think we could beat South Alabama again. Vandy just went into the swamp, forced 4 turnovers and beat the snot out of Florida... a team that beat the crap out of us. They're playing better, improving as the season goes on, playing with a lot of confidence. Meanwhile, UT looks like a beaten, defeated team getting worse week by week. I just hope we keep it respectable, can get the game into the 4th quarter and find a way to keep from getting embarrassed like last year.
 
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#133
#133
This team has a bye week to prepare for this game and home field advantage.

I'd be lying if I said this game didn't worry me, but I have confidence that they pull this one out in the end.
 
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#134
#134
Nope, 5 - 7. I am so over playing an entire schedule of teams in the top 10 I can't stand it. Maybe we can go to the Big Ten for a couple of years until we get built back up.
 
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#135
#135
KBVol said:
Have you been watching our team lately? I don't think we could beat South Alabama again. Vandy just went into the swamp, forced 4 turnovers and beat the snot out of Florida... a team that beat the crap out of us. They're playing better, improving as the season goes on, playing with a lot of confidence. Meanwhile, UT looks like a beaten, defeated team getting worse week by week. I just hope we keep it respectable, can get the game into the 4th quarter and find a way to keep from getting embarrassed like last year.
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Not so much. We should have won that game.
 
#136
#136
Vandy.....

1) Scores 32 pts per game.
2) Rushes for 126 yds per game
3) Passes for 231 yds per game
4) QB has a 66% completion rate...and has not shown to be much of a run threat

They seem to execute a game plan well...they do not get blown out and if UT wins, it will not be a blow out. Dog fight coming.
 
#137
#137
82_VOL_83 said:
Not so much. We should have won that game.
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We should have won a game that we lost by 14 Pts and were thoroughly dominated the entire game? I agree we could have won had Peterman not started and played the first half. But should have and could have are two different things. They didn't play well but we played much worse and Fla was in control pretty much the entire game.
 
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#139
#139
NEVolFan said:
Vandy.....

1) Scores 32 pts per game.
2) Rushes for 126 yds per game
3) Passes for 231 yds per game
4) QB has a 66% completion rate...and has not shown to be much of a run threat

They seem to execute a game plan well...they do not get blown out and if UT wins, it will not be a blow out. Dog fight coming.
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Vandy didn't play Oregon, Bama or Auburn. Vandy played UGA and UF after mass attrition. Using stats against opponents who are as dissimilar as ours have been is totally misleading.

The only opponents we have that had similar rosters when we both played them were SCAR, APSU and Mizzou (if memory serves). I believe we out performed Vandy against 2 of the 3 most similar opponents.
 
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#140
#140
daj2576 said:
Vandy didn't play Oregon, Bama or Auburn. Vandy played UGA and UF after mass attrition. Using stats against opponents who are as dissimilar as ours have been is totally misleading.

The only opponents we have that had similar rosters when we both played them were SCAR, APSU and Mizzou (if memory serves). I believe we out performed Vandy against 2 of the 3 most similar opponents.
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Trying to compare like opponents using the transitive property is foolish and means absolutely nothing. Hell, I'm guilty of it too. We should look at matchups, the state of the program, the momentum of the teams, what kind if confidence are they playing with? IMHO, edge goes to vandy on all counts. I think we're in trouble in 2 weeks and will be extremely fortunate to come away with a narrow win. Personally, I think they win by 10-17 Pts.
 
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#141
#141
KBVol said:
Trying to compare like opponents using the transitive property is foolish and means absolutely nothing. Hell, I'm guilty of it too. We should look at matchups, the state of the program, the momentum of the teams, what kind if confidence are they playing with? IMHO, edge goes to vandy on all counts. I think we're in trouble in 2 weeks and will be extremely fortunate to come away with a narrow win. Personally, I think they win by 10-17 Pts.
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I am not suggesting that anyone use the transitive property for football. I am suggesting that if you chose to use stats to try to prove a point, that one must qualify the stats as meaningful by showing that they pit comparable events against each other. Otherwise, stats alone are meaningless (the old apple v. orange conundrum).

You and I both recognize the weakness of the transitive property. But we seem to disagree on the application of statistics, if they are meaningful and compare like attributes. Acknowledging the weakness of the transitive property, you then make a prediction based off of your view of both UT and Vandy vs. dissimilar opponents (predicting a win by 10-17). You are right, though, we all do that. It is a hard habit to break.

I still hang my hat on the fact that talent averages alone predict almost 80% of the games in the SEC. Here is a chart that I keep updated to illustrate this very thing:
https://docs.google.com/a/mybloodis...Qgwl-hyfdEpwUHpyWXUzY3JWRFU1Skc1UTRiZ2c&gid=0

A brief summary of the findings:

78% of the total games are predicted by talent averages.

If you look at seasonal outcomes, 8 teams, or about 57% of the SEC, are performing with seasonal records that are exactly what talent averages predict. 11 teams, or about 79% of the SEC, are performing either precisely as, or within 1 game of, what talent would predict. 3 teams, or 21% of the SEC, are performing 2 or more games outside of talent average predictions.

Mizzou is the largest over-performer, at 3 games above what talent would predict. Vanderbilt is second with 2 games over. Ole Miss is third with one game over. Auburn and Tennessee are both one game under. Florida takes the cake as the worst team versus talent averages with 4 games under. 4 games a season is about the threshold at which a coach gets fired (see: Dooley / Chizik).

Having chewed on this data for a bit, I would suggest that Vandy's over-performance is more of a function of UGA and UF's massive under performance during that stretch of the season. Those are good wins for morale, just as almost beating UGA in over-time was a good win for UT's morale. Taken as an actual indicator of performance, those games' value is diminished.
 
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#142
#142
daj2576 said:
I am not suggesting that anyone use the transitive property for football. I am suggesting that if you chose to use stats to try to prove a point, that one must qualify the stats as meaningful by showing that they pit comparable events against each other. Otherwise, stats alone are meaningless (the old apple v. orange conundrum).

You and I both recognize the weakness of the transitive property. But you then make a prediction based off of your view of both UT and Vandy vs. dissimilar opponents (predicting a win by 10-17). You are right, though, we all do that. It is a hard habit to break.

I still hang my hat on the fact that talent averages alone predict almost 80% of the games in the SEC. Here is a chart that I keep updated to illustrate this very thing:
https://docs.google.com/a/mybloodis...Qgwl-hyfdEpwUHpyWXUzY3JWRFU1Skc1UTRiZ2c&gid=0

A brief summary of the findings:

78% of the total games are predicted by talent averages.

If you look at seasonal outcomes, 8 teams, or about 57% of the SEC, are performing with seasonal records that are exactly what talent averages predict. 11 teams, or about 79% of the SEC, are performing either precisely as, or within 1 game of, what talent would predict. 3 teams, or 21% of the SEC, are performing 2 or more games outside of talent average predictions.

Mizzou is the largest over-performer, at 3 games above what talent would predict. Vanderbilt is second with 2 games over. Ole Miss is third with one game over. Auburn and Tennessee are both one game under. Florida takes the cake as the worst team versus talent averages with 4 games under. 4 games a season is about the threshold at which a coach gets fired (see: Dooley / Chizik).

Having chewed on this data for a bit, I would suggest that Vandy's over-performance is more of a function of UGA and UF's massive under performance during that stretch of the season. Those are good wins for morale, just as almost beating UGA in over-time was a good win for UT's morale. Taken as an actual indicator of performance, those games' value is diminished.
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Excellent analytics, excellent post. My belief that Vandy beats us is based more on intangibles than anything else. I believe they're better coached, are playing more confidently, and have good momentum coming in and theyre "improving" at the tight time, the way they did last year when they close with 4 straight wins. UT is in the exact opposite position. All of those things have great value in college football and will be our undoing IMHO.
 
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#143
#143
NEVolFan said:
Vandy.....

1) Scores 32 pts per game.
2) Rushes for 126 yds per game
3) Passes for 231 yds per game
4) QB has a 66% completion rate...and has not shown to be much of a run threat

They seem to execute a game plan well...they do not get blown out and if UT wins, it will not be a blow out. Dog fight coming.
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A key stat there is rushing offense. Our pass D breaks down every now and then...at least, against Mizzou and Bammer it did, but for all that we are really bad against the run, as the most recent game shows.

I personally think we match up well with Vandy.

With an extra week to prepare, I have confidence that Butch will have them ready.
 
#144
#144
KBVol said:
Excellent analytics, excellent post. My belief that Vandy beats us is based more on intangibles than anything else. I believe they're better coached, are playing more confidently, and have good momentum coming in and theyre "improving" at the tight time, the way they did last year when they close with 4 straight wins. UT is in the exact opposite position. All of those things have great value in college football and will be our undoing IMHO.
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I might agree with you if the game was played this upcoming weekend. The fact that UT gets a much needed rest, a bye week to do nothing but heal and prepare for an over-achieving team, should be the great equalizer. Advantage UT. Home field advantage against a team that UT fans hate. Advantage UT. Back against the wall with no hope for a bowl if this is a loss, and players who still feel the sting of last year. Advantage UT. Don't undersell the intangible of being embarrassed. Vandy used that last year as a weapon in response to that video of Dooley in the locker room.

Jones has a history of getting more out of his talent than talent would predict (except for his first year at Cincy, and now his first year at UT). The guy can absolutely recruit and click off several more wins a year than should be expected. Even Jancek, who I believe to be his biggest weakness, can perform adequately when Butch has an opportunity to fully realize his scheme and begin applying his talent to that vision.

I must admit as a total pipe dream, that I wouldn't mind seeing Jancek go if we could replace him with Muschamp. That would be a brutal combination of offensive scheme ability, and defensive scheme ability (as long as Muschamp doesn't have to recruit offensive players, and doesn't have to ever be a head coach).
 
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#145
#145
Yes, we beat Vandy. Nothing really to discuss here, almost everyone is over reacting even though the team is exactly where almost everyone thought they would be at this point.

It sucks to lose, it sucks that we have gone through hell as a fan base but think for a second how the majority of these players feel that have weathered the storm. UT is in full rebuild which includes a culture change, however the team should finish 6-6 and hopefully a bowl win. Finish 7-6 and it has to be deemed a success by CBJ in his first season with what he has inherited.
 
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#148
#148
We will beat Vandy. Don't be drama queens. We have played one of the hardest schedules ever. I to believe it will be a struggle with Vandy, but I do believe we will win this game because it is at home and we will be energised after last years embarrassment plus the opportunity to go bowling if we can take care of business these last 2 games. If we lose one of these games, then I will consider Butch.Jones coaching as being below par.
 
#149
#149
BanditVol said:
A key stat there is rushing offense. Our pass D breaks down every now and then...at least, against Mizzou and Bammer it did, but for all that we are really bad against the run, as the most recent game shows.

I personally think we match up well with Vandy.

With an extra week to prepare, I have confidence that Butch will have them ready.
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Do you honestly believe that Vandy has anywhere near the offensive weapons that Mizzou and Alabama have? Vandy is a mediocre team, make no mistake and they are coming into Neyland.
 
#150
#150
BigOrangeTrain said:
Do you honestly believe that Vandy has anywhere near the offensive weapons that Mizzou and Alabama have? Vandy is a mediocre team, make no mistake and they are coming into Neyland.
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UT is less than mediocre. Funny how you put other teams down before we play them, and have to talk about their speed and talent after we get run.
 
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