Can We Finally Put The Moneyball Myth To Rest?

#1

hatvol96

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#1
Watching Barry Zito shut out the Mets last night reminded me of something I was discussing with some folks a couple of weeks ago. All of the Billy Beane hype from earlier this decade was a load of crap. Drafting fatass college catchers because they had high OBPs and minimizing the value of closers didn't make the A's good. Their success was almost completely predicated on the drafting of Zito, Mulder, and Hudson, all of whom were elite college prospects. Throw in Giambi, Tejada, and the pre breaking down Chavez and you have the "secret" to Oakland's success. Now that those guys are gone, all Moneyball Billy has given the fans in Oaktown are the Jack Custs of the world.
 
#2
#2
Baseball on a budget is tough, that being said Beane's philosophy of selling high and reloading their farm system made them into a glorified farm system for the rest of the contenders who needed a bat or a SP around the trade deadline. Cant complain about the fans not coming out when you constantly pull the rug out from underneath them.
 
#3
#3
Baseball on a budget is tough, that being said Beane's philosophy of selling high and reloading their farm system made them into a glorified farm system for the rest of the contenders who needed a bat or a SP around the trade deadline. Cant complain about the fans not coming out when you constantly pull the rug out from underneath them.
Minnesota has been better under budgetary constraints than Oakland. The Marlins cashed in with a miniscule payroll. The fact of the matter is that Beane got a whole bunch of credit for being a visionary when all he really did was be lucky enough to draft three top of the rotation studs in short order.
 
#4
#4
Minnesota has been better under budgetary constraints than Oakland. The Marlins cashed in with a minuscule payroll. The fact of the matter is that Beane got a whole bunch of credit for being a visionary when all he really did was be lucky enough to draft three top of the rotation studs in short order.

Beane was no doubt vastly overrated,i think it was more spawned out of the culture back in the late 90's-early 00's when the microscope was firmly on the cash happy Yankees dynasty and the salary cap/revenue share debate. At that time you had a small market team that seemed to contend every year which of course made Beane the poster boy for small market success.
The fact is you have to suck for a while and draft some can't miss prospects to have a fighting chance in the MLB market. it's just about how you handle it after you sign them that sets you apart.

I know im bias but Andrew Friedman is the best GM in the business right now when it comes to the model of how a small market team should be run.
 
#5
#5
Minnesota has been better under budgetary constraints than Oakland. The Marlins cashed in with a miniscule payroll. The fact of the matter is that Beane got a whole bunch of credit for being a visionary when all he really did was be lucky enough to draft three top of the rotation studs in short order.

fair enough, Beane happened to roll Yahtzee on tthe first roll and made himself seem great as a result.
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#6
#6
Billy caught lightning in a bottle.

His philosophy makes outsiders feel good and makes a good story.

But it has some serious flaws.
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#7
#7
Huston Street was another nice pitcher drafted by Oakland. He's pretty solid now as the Rockies closer.

Tampa Bay is another small market team that has been good the last few years.
 
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#8
#8
Here is the MLB team payrolls.

MLB Salaries - CBSSports.com

I just noticed the Rangers were fairly low on the list. They have a lot of good players it seems to have such a low payroll. San Diego is also doing more than the A's.
 
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#9
#9
Minnesota has been better under budgetary constraints than Oakland. The Marlins cashed in with a miniscule payroll. The fact of the matter is that Beane got a whole bunch of credit for being a visionary when all he really did was be lucky enough to draft three top of the rotation studs in short order.

Their scouting system is unbelievable. They ALWAYS have a wealth of young talent. They lose some and they just reload with new young talent. It's unreal actually...
 
#12
#12
Beane was no doubt vastly overrated,i think it was more spawned out of the culture back in the late 90's-early 00's when the microscope was firmly on the cash happy Yankees dynasty and the salary cap/revenue share debate. At that time you had a small market team that seemed to contend every year which of course made Beane the poster boy for small market success.
The fact is you have to suck for a while and draft some can't miss prospects to have a fighting chance in the MLB market. it's just about how you handle it after you sign them that sets you apart.

I know im bias but Andrew Friedman is the best GM in the business right now when it comes to the model of how a small market team should be run.

I would almost argue he is the model of how any franchise southeast of New York should be run. He has done an excellent job making the Rays contenders.
 
#13
#13
Watching Barry Zito shut out the Mets last night reminded me of something I was discussing with some folks a couple of weeks ago. All of the Billy Beane hype from earlier this decade was a load of crap. Drafting fatass college catchers because they had high OBPs and minimizing the value of closers didn't make the A's good. Their success was almost completely predicated on the drafting of Zito, Mulder, and Hudson, all of whom were elite college prospects. Throw in Giambi, Tejada, and the pre breaking down Chavez and you have the "secret" to Oakland's success. Now that those guys are gone, all Moneyball Billy has given the fans in Oaktown are the Jack Custs of the world.

What is the myth?

It certainly isn't winning baseball.
 
#14
#14
Interesting thread. Oakland has the third-lowest payroll in baseball, is above .500, and Jeremy Brown actually made it to Oakland as an MLB player before retiring.

Beane's problem was that he talked, and he talked a lot. When a lot of influential people read the book and wondered how this ragtag operation could have success and determined that it boiled down to two things (OBP and slugging), the market price for high OBP players skyrocketed. JD Drew went from hopelessly overpaid in Los Angeles ($11 million a year) to market value in Boston ($14 million a year); the market adjusted that quickly. Once the big money teams got involved, any small corner of the marketplace that Oakland had was gone for good, and it then all comes down to good trades and excellent scouting.

His other problem is that he tends to have a very narrow view of what can and cannot be used by a winning team. Ray Durham being acquired and then forbidden from stealing bases is a great example. Yes, there is a point in percentages where stealing poorly can be detrimental to the team as a whole (below 73%, last I checked). But to take a perfectly capable base thief who knows how to pick his spots and say "You may have this excellent skill, but we're not going to use it" is dumb.

I say that if I were to put a baseball team together, Bill James would be the GM, Dr. Mike Marshall would be the overall pitching coach (MLB plus all farm teams), and Earl Weaver the manager.
 
#15
#15
The dirty little secret that you read about Beane is that he is apparently way more interested in soccer these days than he is in the sport that he actually has a job in. It's tough to be a great manager in baseball if you spend more time following the EPL than you do the AL.

And yeah, once the big market teams started paying attention to OBP and scouting then Oakland's window of opportunity was gone. I said when that book came out that facilitating it was the stupidest thing Beane could have done.
 
#16
#16
Interesting thread. Oakland has the third-lowest payroll in baseball, is above .500, and Jeremy Brown actually made it to Oakland as an MLB player before retiring.

Beane's problem was that he talked, and he talked a lot. When a lot of influential people read the book and wondered how this ragtag operation could have success and determined that it boiled down to two things (OBP and slugging), the market price for high OBP players skyrocketed. JD Drew went from hopelessly overpaid in Los Angeles ($11 million a year) to market value in Boston ($14 million a year); the market adjusted that quickly. Once the big money teams got involved, any small corner of the marketplace that Oakland had was gone for good, and it then all comes down to good trades and excellent scouting.

His other problem is that he tends to have a very narrow view of what can and cannot be used by a winning team. Ray Durham being acquired and then forbidden from stealing bases is a great example. Yes, there is a point in percentages where stealing poorly can be detrimental to the team as a whole (below 73%, last I checked). But to take a perfectly capable base thief who knows how to pick his spots and say "You may have this excellent skill, but we're not going to use it" is dumb.

I say that if I were to put a baseball team together, Bill James would be the GM, Dr. Mike Marshall would be the overall pitching coach (MLB plus all farm teams), and Earl Weaver the manager.
Without the good fortune of drafting the Big Three, nobody would have "stolen" Beane's secret because nobody would have given a damn. Nobody cares what teams going 78-84 every year are doing. Oakland's success was all about pitching and the steroid fueled offense of Giambi and Tejada. The sabermetric crap was just garbage to make the geeks who had to play right field in Little League and keep the scorebook in high school feel good about themselves. It's simple. Beane hates baseball and baseball culture. He sucked as a player, so now he tries to insult the game by acting like it's something a bunch of dipshats with slide rules and speadsheets can rule.
 
#17
#17
Without the good fortune of drafting the Big Three, nobody would have "stolen" Beane's secret because nobody would have given a damn. Nobody cares what teams going 78-84 every year are doing. Oakland's success was all about pitching and the steroid fueled offense of Giambi and Tejada. The sabermetric crap was just garbage to make the geeks who had to play right field in Little League and keep the scorebook in high school feel good about themselves. It's simple. Beane hates baseball and baseball culture. He sucked as a player, so now he tries to insult the game by acting like it's something a bunch of dipshats with slide rules and speadsheets can rule.

Since The Big Three were all drafted when Beane was assistant GM and thus heavily involved in scouting and personnel, I have a tough time looking at it as being serendipity.

Personally, I'm really not a fan of Beane. I think he tends to take an oversimplified look at what makes successful franchises, where players develop in vacuums. A mature player will always possess a solid work ethic and develop, an immature player will always be lazy and flighty. A player who gets on base a ton will always maintain a good eye at the plate, and one who does not will never develop a good eye. Now, if he himself made trades (where he has a good track record) and free agent signings (ditto) and left someone else to draft (where his track record is fairly poor), the A's would have had a good deal more success.

As for the rest of your Joe Morgan-style rant, the pioneer of applied sabermetrics in MLB was Earl Weaver with his stack of index cards; his success with a collection of players who few else wanted because of the enormous holes in their skill sets spoke for itself, but very few wanted to actually analyze how he did it.

And to your last point, baseball has been accurately described as a land where science is regarded as witchcraft and the vapid thoughts of a barely literate ex-player are treated as holy writ. It took Bill James 30 years to get so much as a job interview with an MLB team because "he never played the game", and Mike Marshall (who had great success as a player) is kept on the outside for the unforgivable sin of having an education and having never been "one of the guys" while yahoos and two-bit hacks like Dave Duncan and Tom House are put in the pantheon of geniuses. I'd say that Marshall's term paper at Michigan State (titled "Why Baseball Is An Ass") is pretty close to the target.
 
#18
#18
Since The Big Three were all drafted when Beane was assistant GM and thus heavily involved in scouting and personnel, I have a tough time looking at it as being serendipity.

Personally, I'm really not a fan of Beane. I think he tends to take an oversimplified look at what makes successful franchises, where players develop in vacuums. A mature player will always possess a solid work ethic and develop, an immature player will always be lazy and flighty. A player who gets on base a ton will always maintain a good eye at the plate, and one who does not will never develop a good eye. Now, if he himself made trades (where he has a good track record) and free agent signings (ditto) and left someone else to draft (where his track record is fairly poor), the A's would have had a good deal more success.

As for the rest of your Joe Morgan-style rant, the pioneer of applied sabermetrics in MLB was Earl Weaver with his stack of index cards; his success with a collection of players who few else wanted because of the enormous holes in their skill sets spoke for itself, but very few wanted to actually analyze how he did it.

And to your last point, baseball has been accurately described as a land where science is regarded as witchcraft and the vapid thoughts of a barely literate ex-player are treated as holy writ. It took Bill James 30 years to get so much as a job interview with an MLB team because "he never played the game", and Mike Marshall (who had great success as a player) is kept on the outside for the unforgivable sin of having an education and having never been "one of the guys" while yahoos and two-bit hacks like Dave Duncan and Tom House are put in the pantheon of geniuses. I'd say that Marshall's term paper at Michigan State (titled "Why Baseball Is An Ass") is pretty close to the target.
Earl Weaver is another alleged genius who gets about a million times more credit than he deserves. Remind me what the huge holes in the skills of guys like Eddie Murray, Cal Ripken, and Jim Palmer were. Further, his actual accomplishments as a manager are only sightly greater than noted baseball savant Charlie Manuel.

Mike Marsall is just another self anointed prophet who talks about how brilliant his theories are but has no proof of their efficacy. How many adherents to his program are in the major leagues? Oh, that's right. Teams are colluding to keep his guys out of the Show to prevent the gospel of his methods from taking hold.

It took Bill James 30 years to get an interview because the ability to state the obvious, while cloaking it as revolutionary, isn't that valuable. "Guys who get on base a great deal while putting up huge extra base hit numbers are valuable." Groundbreaking.
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#19
#19
Earl Weaver is another alleged genius who gets about a million times more credit than he deserves. Remind me what the huge holes in the skills of guys like Eddie Murray, Cal Ripken, and Jim Palmer were. Further, his actual accomplishments as a manager are only sightly greater than noted baseball savant Charlie Manuel.

Mike Marsall is just another self anointed prophet who talks about how brilliant his theories are but has no proof of their efficacy. How many adherents to his program are in the major leagues? Oh, that's right. Teams are colluding to keep his guys out of the Show to prevent the gospel of his methods from taking hold.

It took Bill James 30 years to get an interview because the ability to state the obvious, while cloaking it as revolutionary, isn't that valuable. "Guys who get on base a great deal while putting up huge extra base hit numbers are valuable." Groundbreaking.
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I bet you are thrilled they are making a movie about the book aren't you?

Moneyball (2011)
 
#20
#20
It took Bill James 30 years to get an interview because the ability to state the obvious, while cloaking it as revolutionary, isn't that valuable. "Guys who get on base a great deal while putting up huge extra base hit numbers are valuable." Groundbreaking.
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You said it.
 
#21
#21
Earl Weaver is another alleged genius who gets about a million times more credit than he deserves. Remind me what the huge holes in the skills of guys like Eddie Murray, Cal Ripken, and Jim Palmer were. Further, his actual accomplishments as a manager are only sightly greater than noted baseball savant Charlie Manuel.

Oh, bull. For one thing, Weaver had exactly two years of Cal Ripken, which included switching him from third to short. He had six years of Murray, meaning that Palmer was the only one there for a majority of Weaver's tenure (and it happened to be all of it).

For the most part, the rest of the lineups were guys who weren't exactly Cooperstown-bound. Ken Singleton was a good hitter who couldn't run. Boog Powell could clear the bases and only get a single in the process. Mark Belanger couldn't hit. Mike Cuellar was 31 and hadn't established himself as a regular player. And those are just the good players that he had.

Getting 90 wins and having the type of success with a roster that was threadbare compared to a good chunk of the rest of the AL is a hell of an accomplishment. The Houston Astros of 1998-2004 had better rosters than most of what Weaver had. And keep in mind that I'm of the opinion that there's very little positive impact that a manager can have, but a lot of negative impact.

Mike Marsall is just another self anointed prophet who talks about how brilliant his theories are but has no proof of their efficacy. How many adherents to his program are in the major leagues? Oh, that's right. Teams are colluding to keep his guys out of the Show to prevent the gospel of his methods from taking hold.

If you're an 18-year-old kid, which of these three options are you going to take:
1) Go to college, where you have a scholarship waiting
2) Sign with the MLB team that drafted you and get on a bus for the minors
3) Go live in a place that's hotter and stickier than a donkey's nutsack in spartan conditions to unlearn everything that you've learned and learn something entirely new

I was down in Zephyrhills a little over two years ago and saw these kids going through an extremely intense workout, followed by 72 maximal pitches, followed by more of a workout. They do it every single day, and yet no one has suffered an injury.

The only way to get people to sit up and take notice would be if an injured or washed-up former phenom were to go through it and end up back in MLB. Mark Prior and Dontrelle Willis would be good candidates.

It took Bill James 30 years to get an interview because the ability to state the obvious, while cloaking it as revolutionary, isn't that valuable. "Guys who get on base a great deal while putting up huge extra base hit numbers are valuable." Groundbreaking.

That's a pretty dramatic oversimplification there. Having read James' work extensively, I'd say that it's a good 50:50 split between something that flies in the face of the conventional and analyzing/clarifying the obvious. It's like the early scientists hearing "The sun revolves around the earth, and the world outside gets hot when the sun is out"; half of that is bunk (the idea of the sun revolving around the earth), half of it was analyzed and clarified (to what extent does the sun heat the earth, and how does it happen?).
 
#22
#22
This current debate is interesting in that the two men, Beane and Weaver, took massive amounts of credit for their teams' success. And what they have in common was they had the one of the best 3 man rotations in the league during their time. You've got Zito, Hudson, and Mulder for the A's and Palmer, McNally, and Cuellar for the O's.

All that goes to show is if you've got great pitching, you'll look a lot better than you really are.
 
#25
#25
This current debate is interesting in that the two men, Beane and Weaver, took massive amounts of credit for their teams' success. And what they have in common was they had the one of the best 3 man rotations in the league during their time. You've got Zito, Hudson, and Mulder for the A's and Palmer, McNally, and Cuellar for the O's.

All that goes to show is if you've got great pitching, you'll look a lot better than you really are.

Cuellar was ineffective after 1974, McNally was gone after 1974, and Palmer after 1978 (save for his one-year revival in 1982). From 1975-1982, the Orioles were 720-511 (.585; 95-67 over 162 games), and 586-374 from 1969-1974 (.610; 99-63 over 162 games). Don't forget that this was also when the Yankees went from also-ran to back to the top of the league (503-461, .522, 85-77 over 162 from 1969-74; 710-525, .575, 93-69 over 162 from 1975-82).

Baltimore didn't replace Cuellar and McNally with All-Stars either. Their 1975 rotation saw McNally replaced with Mike Torrez for one year, and Ross Grimsley bringing up the rear. Wayne Garland, Rudy May, and Ken Holtzman in 1976, and the list goes on. The bullpen had an inordinate number of wins every year that Weaver was there, but there weren't really any top-level relievers during that whole time span either.

As I said before, I'm of the opinion that a manager generally has very little impact on the outcomes of games. But when you look at both who and what Weaver had in Baltimore, particularly post-1974, and compare it to the results, it's amazing. It wasn't one fluke year, it was being in contention time and time and time again.

Oh yeah, Weaver had Brooks Robinson too.

Frank Robinson, too.

Three years of a past-his-prime Frank Robinson, and seven years of a guy who was 32 when Weaver got him on a full-time basis.
 

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