CFP Seeding Tracker

[OrangeEtBlanc]

I’ve posted this in other threads, but I thought it would be fun to track on its own for the rest of the season. Until the actual committee polls come out, I will use the latest AP Poll each week to show the CFP seedings and provide some commentary.

As of Week 6, the CFP would look like this:

1. Alabama (SEC)
2. Ohio State (BIG)
3. Miami (ACC)
4. Iowa State (Big 12)
5. Texas
6. Tennessee
7. Georgia
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Missouri
11. Michigan
12. Boise State (G5 Champ)

5. Texas
12. Boise State

6. Tennessee
11. Michigan

7. Georgia
10. Missouri

8. Oregon
9. Penn State

Current rankings would have us hosting the Wolverines in Neyland in Round 1.

With so many match-ups between these top teams, this deck is sure to be shuffled considerably. Every P4 Team with only 1 loss is still technically alive, but they have little room for error. 2 losses for anyone outside of an SEC or BIG team (and perhaps Notre Dame) is basically a disqualifier.

If the Vols handle business against everyone else but split ‘Bama & UGA, we are basically guaranteed a spot at 11-1. Lose both, and we likely still make it in, but are on the road in the 1st round at 10-2.

The fun thing about this season is now there are more meaningful games. Each game is less impactful in and of itself (1 loss could basically disqualify you in the BCS & 4-team playoff), but now there are more games with playoff implications.

What else is fun is that even teams like Army or Navy could conceivably face each other as undefeateds (or 1-loss teams) and THAT final regular season game could determine the 12th & final CFP seed. Both are 4-0 right now, have a favorable schedule, and both have a chance to upset Notre Dame.

NOTE: Apparently, the CFP committee will NOT take that final game into account, BUT Army-Navy could possibly be the AAC Championship matchup. They could possibly play each other in consecutive weeks and THEN one team play the 1st round of the CFP the next. Plum wild.

This is fun. I know some say “College Football is dead,” but I think this is setting-up for a lot more full-season interest from fans of more teams, especially those G5 schools with a chance at #12.

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

Updating this is not as fun this week. Updated seeding using the AP Poll is as follows:

1. Texas (SEC)
2. Ohio State (BIG)
3. Miami (ACC)
4. Iowa State (Big 12)
5. Oregon
6. Penn State
7. Georgia
8. Alabama
9. Tennessee
10. Ole Miss
11. Clemson
12. Boise State (G5)

5. Oregon
12. Boise State

6. Penn State
11. Clemson

7. Georgia
10. Ole Miss

8. Alabama
9. Tennessee

Given these seedings, the Vols would travel to Tuscaloosa in Round 1.

Every team with only 1 loss is still alive, but only SEC & BIG teams can really afford 2 losses. 3 losses would likely be a disqualifier.

Some notable relevant matchups next week:
#2 Ohio State at #3 Oregon
#1 Texas vs #18 Oklahoma
#9 Ole Miss at #13 LSU


One of Ohio State or Oregon will have 1 loss.

Either Texas will have 1 loss with UGA upcoming or Oklahoma will have 2 with a tough remaining schedule.

Either Ole Miss or LSU will have 2 losses, with some tough games remaining.

Teams to Watch:

Texas A&M—The Aggies are quietly 3-0 in conference play and have LSU & Texas as their toughest remaining matchups. Dark horse SECCG contender.

Penn State—the Nittany Lions’ only currently-ranked remaining matchup is Ohio State. Could be an 11-1 team and possible BIGCG contender.

Indiana—The Hoosiers are 6-0 and finally ranked at #18 this week. They have Michigan & Ohio State on the schedule, plus games with Nebraska & Washington. However, they could also be an 11-1 or 10-2 team with their offense.

Army & Navy: Both are 5-0 for the first time since 1945, and are contenders for the AACCG. Possible G5 12th seed in CFP.

Clemson: They seem to have hit their stride now and would avoid Miami until the ACCCG. Even with a loss there to Miami, an 11-2 Clemson would be in the CFP.

To conclude, let’s look at likely locked-in seeds:

5 seeds go to Conference Champs, leaving 7 at-large bids.

Clemson is likely in as an at-large. That leaves 6.

Penn State’s schedule behooves an 11-1 finish at worst. That leaves 5.

The Ohio State/Oregon loser is also a likely 11-1 team. That leaves 4.

With the loss to Arkansas, it looks like the Vols must spilt ‘Bama/UGA while also winning the rest.

We’ll see how this all plays out.

 

[KnoxRealtorVOL]

Penn State—the Nittany Lions’ only currently-ranked remaining matchup is Ohio State.

This is just absurd this early in the season

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

Even after our 2nd drop in polls, we are still hanging around the playoff picture, though by the skin of our teeth.

Using the latest AP Poll, the CFP seeding would be as follows:

1. Texas (SEC)
2. Oregon (BIG)
3. Miami (ACC)
4. Iowa State (Big 12)
5. Penn State
6. Ohio State
7. Georgia
8. Alabama
9. LSU
10. Clemson
11. Tennessee
12. Boise State (G5)

The current rankings would have Tennessee playing at Ohio State in the first round.

This TSIO may very well be an elimination game for the Vols & Tide, as 2 losses would require next week’s loser to run the table to stay alive for the playoff, but both have tough games against either Georgia or LSU remaining. However, the winner will be sitting pretty with only 1 really likely loss remaining.

Would have really been helpful for both USCs to win yesterday, especially as Penn State really only has the Buckeyes as a potential loss on their remaining schedule. Speaking of, Ohio State could also be in some trouble if they drop the game against the Nittany Lions, as they would then have 2 losses with match-ups against undefeated Indiana and their arch-nemesis Michigan (though down this year, still a tough game for them).

The concern I have is, looking at remaining schedules, there are many teams in the ACC, BIG, and Big 12 that are almost certain (or very likely) to finish undefeated, 11-1, or 12-1 after CCGs.

Miami & Clemson do not play each other in the regular season, so they both likely get in.

BYU & Iowa State don’t play each other in the regular season, either, so we could possibly see both undefeated in their CCG. If so, one of them could steal another playoff spot.

In the BIG, the top 4 teams all have interesting remaining schedules. Oregon has bested the Buckeyes, and only plays Illinois & Michigan from currently-ranked teams (1 of whom will be unranked after they play each other this week) the rest of the way out. Ohio State plays Penn State in Happy Valley, and then Indiana & Michigan at home. Indiana hosts the Wolverines and travels to the Horseshoe. As previously mentioned, Penn State only has OSU at home.

Other Teams to Watch:
Notre Dame’s schedule is very weak, but they do have games against currently unbeaten Army & Navy. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them jump into the playoffs should they end the season with the lone loss to NIU.

A resurgent LSU & Texas A&M has them back in the playoff conversation. If TAMU defeats LSU, they only have 1 likely loss left at Texas to end the year.

Army & Navy are now both ranked and wouldn’t play each other until the AACCG (which is before their traditional matchup). However, Boise State seems poised for the G5 spot unless they slip-up against UNLV or Oregon State.

 

[adam.vol]

Army & Navy are now both ranked and wouldn’t play each other until the AACCG (which is before their traditional matchup). However, Boise State seems poised for the G5 spot unless they slip-up against UNLV or Oregon State.

Army and Navy each play Notre Dame, also. If either Army or Navy goes undefeated, they will surely leap Boise State, as Boise State has no more opportunities against a ranked opponent. Boise State lost to Oregon during a period when Oregon was struggling against other opponents. I could even see an undefeated Army or Navy getting ranked higher than any Big 12 team, which would qualify one of them for a playoff bye.

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

A lot more fun to update this week!

1. Oregon (BIG)
2. Georgia (SEC)
3. Miami (ACC)
4. Iowa State (Big 12)
5. Penn State
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. Tennessee
9. LSU
10. Clemson
11. BYU
12. Boise State (G5)

Penn State
Boise State

Ohio State
BYU

Texas
Clemson

Tennessee
LSU

Using this week’s AP Poll for CFP Seeding, the Vols would host LSU at Neyland in the first round.

With the huge win over Alabama, the Vols are poised to make the CFP even if they lose at Georgia, as long as they take care of business in all the other remaining games.

Some key things to watch for in the coming weeks:

LSU vs A&M next week will go a long way towards the CFP & SECCG race. One team will come away with 2 losses, though only 1 conference loss. LSU still has ‘Bama and A&M still has Texas remaining.

Army & Navy continue undefeated and if one of them beat Notre Dame, they could leapfrog Boise St as the 12th seed.

OTOH, Notre Dame could strengthen their claim to a playoff spot should they beat both as ranked teams.

Both Iowa State & BYU avoiding upsets this week still puts them on a collision course for a Big 12 CCG as unbeatens.

In the BIG, there is also a logjam of undefeated & 1-loss teams—Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, and Illinois. What could be interesting here is that Ohio State plays both the Nittany Lions & Hoosiers. Could the Buckeyes lose both and be left out of the playoffs? One can only hope.

Illinois plays at Oregon this week, which will likely take the Fighting Illini out of the race.

Pitt is another team to watch, currently undefeated, but with upcoming match-ups against SMU & Clemson. Could they spoil the Tigers season and slip into the CFP?

After beating the Tide and now one the bye week, our Vols are sitting pretty.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

A lot more fun to update this week!

1. Oregon (BIG)
2. Georgia (SEC)
3. Miami (ACC)
4. Iowa State (Big 12)
5. Penn State
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. Tennessee
9. LSU
10. Clemson
11. BYU
12. Boise State (G5)

Penn State
Boise State

Ohio State
BYU

Texas
Clemson

Tennessee
LSU

Using this week’s AP Poll for CFP Seeding, the Vols would host LSU at Neyland in the first round.

With the huge win over Alabama, the Vols are poised to make the CFP even if they lose at Georgia, as long as they take care of business in all the other remaining games.

Some key things to watch for in the coming weeks:

LSU vs A&M next week will go a long way towards the CFP & SECCG race. One team will come away with 2 losses, though only 1 conference loss. LSU still has ‘Bama and A&M still has Texas remaining.

Army & Navy continue undefeated and if one of them beat Notre Dame, they could leapfrog Boise St as the 12th seed.

OTOH, Notre Dame could strengthen their claim to a playoff spot should they beat both as ranked teams.

Both Iowa State & BYU avoiding upsets this week still puts them on a collision course for a Big 12 CCG as unbeatens.

In the BIG, there is also a logjam of undefeated & 1-loss teams—Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, and Illinois. What could be interesting here is that Ohio State plays both the Nittany Lions & Hoosiers. Could the Buckeyes lose both and be left out of the playoffs? One can only hope.

Illinois plays at Oregon this week, which will likely take the Fighting Illini out of the race.

Pitt is another team to watch, currently undefeated, but with upcoming match-ups against SMU & Clemson. Could they spoil the Tigers season and slip into the CFP?

After beating the Tide and now one the bye week, our Vols are sitting pretty.

Pitt sucks. They have played exactly NO ONE and they’ve barely gotten past several nobodies. Hopefully Syracuse puts this Pitt nonsense to bed before we have to start hearing Narduzzi complaining about the ACC not getting any respect.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Pitt sucks. They have played exactly NO ONE and they’ve barely gotten past several nobodies. Hopefully Syracuse puts this Pitt nonsense to bed before we have to start hearing Narduzzi complaining about the ACC not getting any respect.

This is not aging well.

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

Well, we are a little over a week away from the first real CFP poll release, so the AP will soon be obsolete. Will be interesting to see how the committee weighs the SOS of various teams and is reflected in their rankings, which should not directly mirror the AP.

The AP/Coaches poll suffers from the bias of the initial pre-season ranking, which is largely why certain teams are still ranked so high aside from weak schedules. Ohio State lost to their only ranked opponent but still sits at #4. Indiana, however, is 8-0 and still only sits at #13 (though their schedule is even weaker—not a single ranked matchup yet). This is due to poll and perception bias.

Current CFP seeds using the most recent AP Poll would be as follows:

1. Oregon (BIG)
2. Georgia (SEC)
3. Miami (ACC)
4. BYU (Big 12)
5. Penn State
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. Tennessee
9. Notre Dame
10. Texas A&M
11. Clemson
12. Boise State (G5)

Penn State
Boise State

Ohio State
Clemson

Texas
Texas A&M

Tennessee
Notre Dame

Given these rankings, the Vols would host the Irish in round 1.

Lots of football left to play and MANY interesting matchups to watch over the coming weeks. Our Vols have the benefit of 2 weak opponents the next couple games while our CFP competitors have some difficult matchups.

Biggest games of next week are Ohio State at Penn State & Pitt at SMU. Can the Nittany Lions hand the Buckeyes a second loss? Will Pitt remain undefeated and in the running for the ACC?

The continuing concern for our Volunteers and other SEC teams are the number of potential undefeated and 1-loss teams in other conferences that wouldn’t play each other until their CCGs and could steal some spots.

Notre Dame’s thumping of Navy coupled with A&M’s rise has made them a strong favorite to make the CFP. Not good news. Their schedule is not that difficult, but wins against A&M, Navy, and probably Army will propel them to the playoff.

In the ACC, Miami & Pitt remain unbeaten while Clemson & SMU still sit at 1 loss. Two teams in seems likely, but could they steal a 3rd? Probably need Pitt to beat SMU, Clemson to beat Pitt, and hopefully South Carolina to defeat Clemson, with Miami going undefeated and winning the ACCCG.

In the Big 12, BYU & Iowa State are still unbeaten and poised for a showdown as 12-0 teams. Kansas State is still hanging-around with only 1 loss and also plays at Iowa State the final game of the regular season. Does the Big 12 get 2 spots?

Boise State looks like a lock for the G5 CFP spot unless Army can run the table and bring down Notre Dame in the process.

Given how things look right now, this is how I would envision the CFP field:

SEC: 3
BIG: 3
ACC: 2
Big 12: 2
Ind: 1
G5: 1
I thought we would be set at 10-2, but unless we beat UGA, we may now need some help to get in.

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

Time for the final edition of this before the actual rankings come out. Using this week’s AP Poll, the CFP rankings would be as follows:

1. Oregon (BIG)
2. Georgia (SEC)
3. Miami (ACC)
4. BYU (Big 12)
5. Ohio State
6. Texas
7. Penn State
8. Tennessee
9. Indiana
10. Notre Dame
11. Alabama
12. Boise State (G5)

1st Round:
Ohio State
Boise State

Texas
Alabama

Penn State
Notre Dame

Tennessee
Indiana

Using this poll, the Vols would host the Hoosiers in Neyland in the first round.

The past weekend saw numerous upsets that ultimately help our Vols as potential at-large bid stealers went down:

Clemson
Iowa State
Kansas State
Pitt
Texas A&M

It now looks more likely that there will be only 1 spot for the ACC & Big 12, as it originally looked like there would be a slew of undefeated & 1-loss regular seasons among that bunch. Best case scenario now is that Miami & BYU win-out, including their CCG games, ensuring their 2nd place teams all have 2+ losses. A 2-loss Tennessee will not get left-out in favor of a 2-loss Iowa State or SMU.

Some match-ups with huge CFP implications this week are Alabama at LSU and Georgia at Ole Miss. These are playoff elimination games for ‘Bama, LSU, and Ole Miss, as they would have 3 losses should they fail this coming weekend. It probably benefits TN more with a victory by the Tide & Dawgs, but a loss by either of them would still be sweet. An Ole Miss victory propels them back into the CFP conversation, which could be bad for us. However, it would give us the chance to deliver a killshot to UGA the following week.

With the ACC & Big 12 dropping teams this weekend, the competition now centers around the 4 max potential SEC CFP seeds.

1-Loss Tier:
1. Georgia
2. Texas
3. Tennessee

2-Loss Tier:
4. Alabama
5. LSU
6. Texas A&M
7. Ole Miss

Bama/LSU and Ole Miss could possibly be eliminated this week, leaving only the below.

1-Loss Tier
1. Georgia
2. Texas
3. Tennessee

2-Loss Tier
4. ‘Bama
5. Texas A&M

3-Loss Tier (Eliminated)
6. LSU
7. Ole Miss

Should the higher-ranked teams win the remaining match-ups, we would end up with this:

1-Loss Tier:
1. Georgia
2. Texas

2-Loss Tier
3. Tennessee
4. Alabama

3-Loss Tier:
5. Texas A&M
6. LSU
7. Ole Miss

In that scenario, we are then likely in, but probably ranked below Alabama despite the H2H, since they would have beaten UGA & LSU, while our best win would only be the Tide, themselves. It’ll be interesting to see how the committee initially ranks us on Tuesday, which will give us a much better idea of what we may need to do to make the dance.

All this to say—buckle up, it’s going to be a wild November.

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

Another thing to add is that, unless Boise State slips-up inexplicably or Army beats Notre Dame, the Broncos are basically a lock for the G5 spot. The other closest contender is Washington State, whom Boise beat by 21 points earlier in the season.

Another possibility, while very slim, is that Boise St finishes high enough for an at-large bid, and Army runs the table to get the G5 spot. Now THAT would cause some chaos. With the Broncos at #12 in the AP Poll, it’s not quite as impossible as it may seem…

 

[stolitonic]

Another thing to add is that, unless Boise State slips-up inexplicably or Army beats Notre Dame, the Broncos are basically a lock for the G5 spot. The other closest contender is Washington State, whom Boise beat by 21 points earlier in the season.

Another possibility, while very slim, is that Boise St finishes high enough for an at-large bid, and Army runs the table to get the G5 spot. Now THAT would cause some chaos. With the Broncos at #12 in the AP Poll, it’s not quite as impossible as it may seem…

Will probably not happen, but I would love to see Boise get past BYU in the rankinsg somehow.

The 4 byes are to the highest ranked conference winners so would be hilarious if the G5 champion got a bye the first year of the new system.

I wouldn't mind getting a first round game @neyland and then facing Boise St in round 2. Let them run all the Statue of Liberty plays they want-Pierce will just decapitate them.

 

[miket4god]

Another thing to add is that, unless Boise State slips-up inexplicably or Army beats Notre Dame, the Broncos are basically a lock for the G5 spot. The other closest contender is Washington State, whom Boise beat by 21 points earlier in the season.

Another possibility, while very slim, is that Boise St finishes high enough for an at-large bid, and Army runs the table to get the G5 spot. Now THAT would cause some chaos. With the Broncos at #12 in the AP Poll, it’s not quite as impossible as it may seem…

Why would the G5 get another team. Boise could be the number 1 team in the country, but that doesn't mean ANOTHER G5 team would get in. Only the highest ranked G% which would be Boise, at large or no.

 

[pimo1]

This is not aging well.

O'rly?

 

[pimo1]

I think BYU and Indiana are both teams likely to pick up a loss or two before the season ends. Indiana has to play Michigan and OSU they lose at lest one of those games. BYU has a seeming cakewalk out the door their last 4 with only AZ State having a winning record..but, I think they will lose to one of those other 3 teams waiting as spoilers. BYU has only looked like an 8-0 team in their win against Kstate the rest of their games were against pushovers and meh teams.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

O'rly?

Haha. I thought about commenting on this the other day and forgot.

 

[pimo1]

Haha. I thought about commenting on this the other day and forgot.

Laying crow eggs is fine and part of life, as long as one is willing to eat what issues forth. You sir are one of the good ones.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Laying crow eggs is fine and part of life, as long as one is willing to eat what issues forth. You sir are one of the good ones.

I was wrong and then I was right again. Such is life in the 2024 College Football World.

 

[pimo1]

I was wrong and then I was right again. Such is life in the 2024 College Football World.

every weekend everything gets flipped

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

Why would the G5 get another team. Boise could be the number 1 team in the country, but that doesn't mean ANOTHER G5 team would get in. Only the highest ranked G% which would be Boise, at large or no.

Good catch. It’s highly unlikely, but I guess it would depend on if both are ranked in the top 12 if Army goes undefeated and beats Notre Dame. Yeah, I didn’t think that one all the way through, though.