cliodynamics- predicting the future with mathematics

[Obsessed]

In Issac Asimov’s classic science fiction saga Foundation, mathematics professor Hari Seldon predicts the future using what he calls psychohistory. Drawing on mathematical models that describe what happened in the past, he anticipates what will happen next, including the fall of the Galactic Empire.

That may seem like fanciful stuff. But Peter Turchin is turning himself into a real-life Hari Seldon — and he’s not alone.

Turchin — a professor at the University of Connecticut — is the driving force behind a field called “cliodynamics,” where scientists and mathematicians analyze history in the hopes of finding patterns they can then use to predict the future. It’s named after Clio, the Greek muse of history.

These academics have the same goals as other historians — “We start with questions that historians have asked for all of history,” Turchin says. “For example: Why do civilizations collapse?” — but they seek to answer these questions quite differently. They use math rather than mere language, and according to Turchin, the prognosis isn’t that far removed from the empire-crushing predictions laid down by Hari Seldon in the Foundation Saga

Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past | Wired Enterprise | Wired.com

 

[Obsessed]

I actually find if interesting. I liked the show Numbers as well. If haven't watched it you should. Math is used in a lot of ways.

 

[FLVOL_79]

It is interesting. History repeats itself that is for sure. They will probably find familiar patterns when analyzing why/how civilizations collapsed (baring natural disaster/disease) and as most truths they might be hard to swallow.

 

[Obsessed]

It is interesting. History repeats itself that is for sure. They will probably find familiar patterns when analyzing why/how civilizations collapsed (baring natural disaster/disease) and as most truths they might be hard to swallow.

He's data is suggesting another break down of civilization in 2020 ie: terrorist attack, riots,etc
I really don't know if our country is really old enough to use this method on though.

 

[lawgator1]

I get how one can mathematically predict physical events, since such events are not independent, by nature. But how can you mathematically predict a political situation?

 

[Obsessed]

I get how one can mathematically predict physical events, since such events are not independent, by nature. But how can you mathematically predict a political situation?

Apparently you didn't read the link.

It's a theory

 

[PKT_VOL]

This is nothing new. Game Theory has been around for awhile.

 

[Obsessed]

This is nothing new. Game Theory has been around for awhile.

Why do you have to come in here and ruin everything ?

I have another thread you can post in. A philosophy one.

 

[Carl Pickens]

I get how one can mathematically predict physical events, since such events are not independent, by nature. But how can you mathematically predict a political situation?

simply by extrapolating the number of libtards involved in the voting process and the ratio of libtards in office mulitiplied by the number of urchins sucking the treasury's teet dry while shjtting where they eat.

 

[mtt2d]

I'm not shocked they came to this conclusion with all the instability in the world, including in the US. But drawing a bunch of summaries based on some math queries won't get much attention. They need to make these conclusions mean something to the public if they are that confident in what they found.

 

[PKT_VOL]

Why do you have to come in here and ruin everything ?

I have another thread you can post in. A philosophy one.

Lol. I am just familiar with this topic in general. I concentrated on international relations/game theory for my political science minor.

 

[Obsessed]

Lol. I am just familiar with this topic in general. I concentrated on international relations/game theory for my political science minor.

It's cool man. I read another article today where some Iran scientist invited a time machine if you will. You don't go in to the future it brings the future to you. Apparently you touch it and it gives you 5-8 years of your future. Works by a way of algorithms. Supposedly has a 98% success rate.


It's neat I think. I've always enjoyed the wonders of mathematics

 

[FLVOL_79]

Game theory..is that like a walk through? Or a cheat guide?!

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

It's cool man. I read another article today where some Iran scientist invited a time machine if you will. You don't go in to the future it brings the future to you. Apparently you touch it and it gives you 5-8 years of your future. Works by a way of algorithms. Supposedly has a 98% success rate.


It's neat I think. I've always enjoyed the wonders of mathematics

Time machine that gives 5-8 yrs. of your future. Don't think I'd like to know the future yet. It could show you like going forward two months & how you meet Dr.Death. :thumbsup:

 

[OldandStillaVol]

He's data is suggesting another break down of civilization in 2020 ie: terrorist attack, riots,etc
I really don't know if our country is really old enough to use this method on though.

Its an interesting idea but the article didn't give any idea of how precise his prediction is. Its one thing to say there will be a spike in violence in 2020 +/- 1 year and another thing to say there will be a breakdown in 2020 +/- 20 yrs. Everyone probably agrees that there will be some spike in violence sometime between now and 2040.