College Hoops Around The Country [TN opponents, RPI, others]

#1,426
#1,426
I am concerned about UF getting into the tournament. Right now, we are in, but we are 16-8, 7-4. RPI is decent at 46. Not great, but decent.

Thing is, our last seven games are all tough. You guys, Auburn, Kentucky. Plus Alabama and this weekend at So Carolina.

If UF manages to win 2 of those games, they finish 18-13, 9-9 in conference. I think they'd have to win two conference tournament games to safely get in. I think if they can win three of the remaining regular season games, and finish 19-12 with above .500 in conference, then they are in.

That might not be that easy with the schedule we have left.
 
#1,427
#1,427
BruinVol said:
I am not joining the masses happy about unc winning. In the long run we needed them to lose imo
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Like I said, good for a Carolina win last night, and pull for NCSU to beat them in Raleigh on Saturday coming off less than 48 hours rest and a big emotional win.

Win/win/win for Tennessee. Duke loses, Carolina loses, and NCSU wins.
 
#1,428
#1,428
lawgator1 said:
I am concerned about UF getting into the tournament. Right now, we are in, but we are 16-8, 7-4. RPI is decent at 46. Not great, but decent.

Thing is, our last seven games are all tough. You guys, Auburn, Kentucky. Plus Alabama and this weekend at So Carolina.

If UF manages to win 2 of those games, they finish 18-13, 9-9 in conference. I think they'd have to win two conference tournament games to safely get in. I think if they can win three of the remaining regular season games, and finish 19-12 with above .500 in conference, then they are in.

That might not be that easy with the schedule we have left.
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Yup...you can go back about 2-3 weeks and I made a statement they weren’t nearly as safe as the projections or many people thought they were.

I have been of the opinion they need to be 20-11(11-7) to be a lock for the dance regardless of SECT, if they are 19-12(10-8) they may be right on the edge and relying on some help or SECT.
 
#1,429
#1,429
cncchris33 said:
Like I said, good for a Carolina win last night, and pull for NCSU to beat them in Raleigh on Saturday coming off less than 48 hours rest and a big emotional win.

Win/win/win for Tennessee. Duke loses, Carolina loses, and NCSU wins.
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I understand the confidence in our team but we keep acting like unc is going to lose more games while it seems like everyone is talking about us winning out or all but 1. I think the sec is just too good for us to go without at least 2 more losses and if that is the case unc will likely get a seed ahead of us.
 
#1,430
#1,430
BruinVol said:
I understand the confidence in our team but we keep acting like unc is going to lose more games while it seems like everyone is talking about us winning out or all but 1. I think the sec is just too good for us to go without at least 2 more losses and if that is the case unc will likely get a seed ahead of us.
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They have two more losses than us already, similar RPIs, identical records against the RPI Top-25, and they finish the season @NCSU, Notre Dame, @UofL, @Syracuse, Miami, and @Duke.

Even if we do drop 2 games, they'd have to go undefeated to match us in record, and in that case, I'd argue they deserve the seed over us after mowing thru that schedule.
 
#1,431
#1,431
bleedingTNorange said:
Yup...you can go back about 2-3 weeks and I made a statement they weren’t nearly as safe as the projections or many people thought they were.

I have been of the opinion they need to be 20-11(11-7) to be a lock for the dance regardless of SECT, if they are 19-12(10-8) they may be right on the edge and relying on some help or SECT.
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19-12 and Florida needs help but Missouri at 19 wins is a lock?
 
#1,432
#1,432
cncchris33 said:
They have two more losses than us already, similar RPIs, identical records against the RPI Top-25, and they finish the season @NCSU, Notre Dame, @UofL, @Syracuse, Miami, and @Duke.

Even if we do drop 2 games, they'd have to go undefeated to match us in record, and in that case, If argue they deserve the seed over us after mowing thru that schedule.
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I would have to assume if all those things are equal the head to head on our court trumps us easily
 
#1,433
#1,433
With the loss last night the Govs are third in the OVC. Should still get the double bye in the tourney.

They've got the pieces to make a run
 
#1,434
#1,434
bleedingTNorange said:
Yup...you can go back about 2-3 weeks and I made a statement they weren’t nearly as safe as the projections or many people thought they were.

I have been of the opinion they need to be 20-11(11-7) to be a lock for the dance regardless of SECT, if they are 19-12(10-8) they may be right on the edge and relying on some help or SECT.
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The big wins over Gonzaga and Cincy both help. Taking Duke to the wire and beating Kentucky at Rupp help, too.

Their SOS right now is around 12th, and that should rise with all the ranked teams on the schedule. Given the mediocrity out there, I think 19 Ws is probably good enough.

As I said the other day, though they are not likely to go far in the tournament they could spring an upset in the Second Round if they are hitting their 3's. Right now, Lunardi has them a 7 seed, potentially facing #2 seed Duke in Round II. Florida could easily beat them.
 
#1,435
#1,435
BruinVol said:
I would have to assume if all those things are equal the head to head on our court trumps us easily
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Sure, if we finish with the same record. But, we are two games up on them right now. I concede that they should get in over us if we finish with the same record. Their SOS and RPI will agree with that, too.
 
#1,436
#1,436
lawgator1 said:
The big wins over Gonzaga and Cincy both help. Taking Duke to the wire and beating Kentucky at Rupp help, too.

Their SOS right now is around 12th, and that should rise with all the ranked teams on the schedule. Given the mediocrity out there, I think 19 Ws is probably good enough.

As I said the other day, though they are not likely to go far in the tournament they could spring an upset in the Second Round if they are hitting their 3's. Right now, Lunardi has them a 7 seed, potentially facing #2 seed Duke in Round II. Florida could easily beat them.
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RPI has Florida SOS is 34, not 12.

ESPN BPI has their SOS at 17.
 
#1,437
#1,437
cncchris33 said:
Sure, if we finish with the same record. But, we are two games up on them right now. I concede that they should get in over us if we finish with the same record. Their SOS and RPI will agree with that, too.
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I don't buy the record being of that much importance. If it did Miss State would be a lock now.


I think it's way down the list
 
#1,438
#1,438
BruinVol said:
I don't buy the record being of that much importance. If it did Miss State would be a lock now.


I think it's way down the list
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It matters when the resumes are very similar. And ours and UNCs are right now. If they make it thru that schedule undefeated the rest of the way, their resumé will look better than ours, so if drop a couple games, they'll deserve a spot over us.
 
#1,440
#1,440
cncchris33 said:
It matters when the resumes are very similar. And ours and UNCs are right now. If they make it thru that schedule undefeated the rest of the way, their resumé will look better than ours, so if drop a couple games, they'll deserve a spot over us.
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Unc is going to have the #1 overall SOS (ours around 25), they beat us at home AND they are a blue blood program. Overall record isn't going to mean much if their RPI stays ahead of ours
 
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#1,442
#1,442
lawgator1 said:
I was going off of ESPN but misread it.

That is interesting that one SOS is 34, one of them is 17. Pretty big spread there.
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BPI calculates some different things into their SOS ranking than just a standard RPI. Go to ESPNs page and click on BPI, and it explains the metrics at the bottom of the page.
 
#1,443
#1,443
BruinVol said:
Unc is going to have the #1 overall SOS (ours around 25), they beat us at home AND they are a blue blood program. Overall record isn't going to mean much if their RPI stays ahead of ours
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So, just give them the 1 seed regardless of what their record is?

I mean, come on. There is a much better chance we finish the season better than they do. You really think a 22-9 UNC deserves a bid higher than a 24-6 Tennessee?
 
#1,444
#1,444
cncchris33 said:
So, just give them the 1 seed regardless of what their record is?

I mean, come on. There is a much better chance we finish the season better than they do. You really think a 22-9 UNC deserves a bid higher than a 24-6 Tennessee?
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I think tenn is going to lose at least twice more and a third in the sec tourney. If that happens unc needs to lose 2 more than us during that span and I don't see them losing 5 more games
 
#1,448
#1,448
BruinVol said:
With their advantage in SOS and beating us we need to be more than a few spots higher than them RPI. Right now they are ahead of us
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We'll just agree to disagree on the matter. You have more faith in UNC and less faith in Tennessee than I do, so we aren't going to find common ground.
 
#1,450
#1,450
BruinVol said:
I understand the confidence in our team but we keep acting like unc is going to lose more games while it seems like everyone is talking about us winning out or all but 1. I think the sec is just too good for us to go without at least 2 more losses and if that is the case unc will likely get a seed ahead of us.
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If we lose 2 more there’s gonna be other teams besides just UNC that will be ahead of us
 
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