Computer Ranking Research Style

[Big Vol Nasty]

I'm a pretty calm guy. I'll be the first to tell you screw the computer rankings and just play football and eveything will work its self out.

Does it bother me that Cal is ranked higher than UT. Yes.

Am I going to whine about it. No.

But not really understanding about all this picking a champ by crunching numbers I went and looked at some of these Computer polls.

The following are some rankings I found:
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Richard Billingsley Rankings:as of Oct. 22

*0-8 Stanford is at #85. 5 spots ahead of a 4-2 San Jose State team that beat them 35-34. And you thought we had a case for being pissed.

*1-6 North Carolina is at #69, 4 spots above them is a 3-5 Virginia team that beat them 23-0.

*Stanford (like I said #85) is only 2 spots behind a 3-5 Arizona team that beat Stanford 20-7

*5-3 (#22) Washington State is above Texas AM, Missouri (both 7-1) and Wake Forrest (6-1)

Jeff Sagarian as of Oct. 29

*Appalachian State (8-1 D1-AA) is #69, NC State (which beat Appy State is #71)

*Washington State (6-3) (#12) is 5 spots ahead of (8-1) Wisconsin.

*Oregon State (5-2) (#18) is 2 spots ahead of 7-1 Boston College

*Oregon (6-2) (#15) is 8 spots above LSU also 6-2.

*Texas AM #32 (8-1) is 7 spots below Tulsa (7-1)

*As far as this poll is concerned Montana (D1-AA) is the #38th best team in the land. Which is 34 spots better than a (5-3) Miami (FL), 28 spots better than a (6-3) Houston. (7-2) Missouri is only 3 spots better at 35.


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There are 4 more polls and all can be found here: BCS COMPUTER RANKINGS

I know in any poll you're going to find discrepancies, but just take a look at some of these rankings and you'll see that Tennessee is not the only team with grounds to bitch and moan.

Wanting to understand these ranking a little more I wanted to know the math behind them:

Check this out: Explanation of Colley Matrix Rankings

Good luck understanding what this is all about.

Also check out this Open letter to the Fans, Media, and such from BCS Computer Ranker Richard Billingsley.

OPEN LETTER from Richard Billingsley

I've did the research, and my final word on the computer rankings after seeing everything and checking it out deeper than Tennessee/ Cal is these rankings are pretty much full of :censored:

 

[Lexvol]

First, this rests on the head's of the presidents of the universities.

Should anyone be surprised that the defense of the brain trust behind the computer rankings is nothing more than a list of the academic acheivments of their creators? Typically those who cannot survive in the world of free enterprise teach college. In my experience there are few exceptions to this rule.

The problem is that football is not simply an intellectual exercise, though intellect is a factor in strategy and coaching. Nothing thrills the brainiacs like Richard Billingsley more than feeling relevant.

In the world of computer geeks and academia, I am sure he is a hero. In the real world, this is senseless.

 

[patrick]

......therefore A playoff is necessary.

 

[allvol]

Here is my analysis of the current BCS situation.

The difference between #2 and #3 is .184

The difference between #3 and #11 is .086

The difference between #11 and #12 is .185

What this means to me is that #3 thru #11 are almost interchangeable and alot can happen between now and December.

I do believe, however, that the BCS "ranking" is affecting the Vols ranking the past few weeks. Prior to the official release of the BCS, the Vols were 7th. The talking heads on ESPN even made comments proclaiming the Vols as the best 1-loss team in the nation. However when it became official the next week, the Vols were 11th in the BCS. Since then, the Vols have dropped in the AP from 7th to 8th and been jumped by Auburn and Florida.

The biggest thing that hurts the Vols in the computers are the Marshall (3-5) and Memphis (1-7)games. Both teams are rated as horrible. Marshall's computer avg is 99.25 and Memphis' computer avg is 112.00.

"Not so fast my friend." LSU's computer ranking avg is 22.75, but more importantly in the human polls is ranked 13th. Arkansas' computer ranking avg is 14.00 and in the human polls is 12th. Computers love road games as well. A win over those 2 teams in the next 2 weeks should vault the Vols into the top 5 of the BCS.

and...

The only team between #3 and #10 coming close to playing 2 teams ranked that poorly would be Notre Dame.... but they haven't played one of them yet, North Carolina (#104) this weekend will hurt them in the computers.

USC plays Stanford (#105) this weekend and Cal plays Stanford later this season.

Auburn is on game 3 of its 3 straight games against creampuffs: Tulane (#87), Ole Miss (#82), and this weekend they play Arkansas St (#84). In addition, they have already played Buffalo (#117) and Miss State (#92). Auburn's computer average fell from 5.75 to 8.00 just for showing up the last 2 weeks. It'll fall again this week.

In summary, if Tennessee beats LSU and Arkansas the next 2 weeks, with Louisville and WVU playing each other, maybe one upset, and with other teams mentioned above playing low ranked teams.... the Vols could be as high as 6th in the human polls and have a computer average of #5. If that happens, based upon the current numbers in the BCS, the Vols would be #3 with a BCS number close to 0.790.

 

[dobre_shunka]

Looking at the Wolfe poll,

#33 Bama
#39 MTSU
#40 Nebraska
#41 South Carolina
#44 UGA



Can't say that I've followed the Blue Raiders too closely this year, but I can't buy that they are better than every team in the SEC East except UT and UF.