DiderotsGhost
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After grabbing huge classes in 2014 and 2015, the 2016 class has been much more frustrating as a Vol fan. We have limited numbers, there is not as much top talent in Tennessee this year, and we've lacked key "peer recruiters" in this class like we had in 2014 and 2015. Nevertheless, we're actually putting together a solid class in spite of the disadvantages, even if the recruiting rankings don't necessarily show it.
This is my "tl;dr" analysis of recruiting. I'm no expert; I just like writing and analyzing things. Read if you'd like; ignore it if not. Would love to hear other people's thoughts, as well.
The Final Ranking
First off, let's talk about the recruiting rankings. I've seen some people say this class is a failure is if it's not "top 10", but that's flat-out wrong IMO. In fact, from a pure numbers perspective, it would be extremely difficult for us to crack the top 10 in most of the recruiting services. We'd probably have to have multiple 5 stars to get there.
Comparing our class to Florida's showcases why a top 10 ranking may not be realistic. On 247 Sports, Florida's average recruit rating is 87.76, while ours is 89.10. In other words, we're recruiting "higher quality" than Florida overall. However, we're ranked #20 and Florida is ranked #7. The main reason for this is that Florida already has 25 commitments and may end up taking around 30, whereas we're at 15 commitments and may end up closer to 20. Even if we're getting higher quality recruits than Florida, we'll most likely finish well behind them in the rankings. Even Rivals, which only counts the top 20 recruits for the rankings, still factors in quantity significantly (after all, a school which takes 30 recruits is more likely to have a better top 20 than a school that takes exactly 20).
For this reason, I wouldn't focus too much on the team rankings this season. We're at an inherent disadvantage due to numbers. The more important issue is whether we're adding quality players to the roster. On that front, I feel like we're doing reasonably well.
O-Line
Grade: "A+" (best case) to "B-" (downside case)
This is the area where I feel like we're in the best shape closing. Seems like we're in good position with 4-star OG recruit Landon Dickerson. Meanwhile, we're now in on 3-star OT Nathan Niehaus, as well. We've got a very good shot at closing on both of them, and we already have 4-star OT recruit Ryan Johnson. If we grab all three of those guys, I'd call our O-line recruiting this year a major success. I really like all three of those guys. While Niehaus may only be rated at 3-stars, I feel like that kid has IMMENSE upside and has the prototypical Offensive Tackle body. I absolutely love his attitude and passion and he's exactly the type of player that Mahoney could mold into a top OT. And even if he strikes out at OT, he might work out very well at Tight End.
Overall, I like where we are right now on O-line recruiting. If we land all three guys, I'll call this O-line haul an "A+". If we only land two, then I'll call it a "B+". We're in much better shape at OL heading into 2016 than we were in 2014 or 2015, so even if we only got Johnson, it wouldn't be a total failure (we'll call it a "B-"), but I'd really much prefer to get at least 2 of these guys.
Quarterback
Grade: A
The more I see of Jarrett Guarantano, the more I like him. We will be absolutely loaded at QB next year. And as many top guys as we will have on the roster in the future, I could see JG being the QB of the future; not that he'll lack competition. It just feels like JG fits our system better than any other QB. I'm giving Butch & Co an "A" for this position.
Running Back
Grade: B
At RB, we have 4-star Carlin Fils-Aime locked up. Admittedly, I haven't really watched much footage of CFA and I also feel like RB can be a more difficult position to evaluate as a non-coach. (With a good enough OL, even an average RB can look great; and with a poor OL, even a great RB can look average.) For now, I'm giving us a "B" at RB. Still feel like we could use some more depth at RB, but looks like our best prospects to replace Hurd and Kamara are really in the 2017 class.
Wide Receiver
Grade: "A-" (best case) to "C" (downside case)
This is a position we've struggled recruiting a bit this cycle. A slot receiver is a big need. In spite of some optimism by many here, I've always felt that Mecole Hardman was a huge longshot. However, we look to be in good shape with Velus Jones. If we can lock up Jones, I'd say that would be a big step in the right direction.
We also have a shot at Marquez Calloway. He's sort of a "big mystery" when it comes to recruiting and has played things very close to the vest. He's also a top basketball prospect, but he's more in demand for football. However, he wants to play both sports. We're one of a small handful of schools that have offered him on both sports. I'd view him as an excellent addition, but difficult to know where we stand right now. Feel like we're in the top 3, but w/ little activity on his end and few public statements over the past few months, it's anyone's guess.
Thus far, we also have Jeff George, Brandon Johnson, and Corey Henderson locked up at WR. We released T. Marshall recently (more or less), which many view as a questionable decision.
We've added some prospects, but no real home runs here. Right now, I'd grade us at "C". If we land Velus Johes, that should improve to a solid "B". If we add V. Jones and Callaway or if we somehow land Mecole Hardman, then we might talk about this being an "A"
D-Line
Grade: "A+" (best case) to "B-" (downside case)
IMO D-line is not our biggest position of need, but we've had a ton of activity at this position in 2016. We have had a lot of top recruits either committed or looking at us. Unfortunately, we lost two D-line commitments recently. One was reportedly let go by the staff (Okonya), as his Senior season was a bit of a disappointment. Meanwhile, we've lost D'Andre Christmas-Giles after he received an offer from home state LSU. We recruited DCG when he was only a 2-star, so we were well ahead of the curve, but looks like it's going to be an uphill battle to sign him.
Recent commit Jonathan Kongbo is not a lock either. I gotta admit, I absolutely love this kid at DE and he has a great story, too. I'd see holding onto him as a top priority. Alexis Johnson is a very solid JUCO at DT that will give us more depth at that position, as well.
I don't know why, but I've always had a very good feeling about landing 5-star DT Derrick Brown. I try to read as much about recruiting as I can, and I thought people were overestimating our chances with 5-star recruits like Kyle Davis and Mecole Hardman, but the way Derrick Brown talks about Tennessee makes me think we might be in better shape than perceived with him. The fact that we get his last visit is also a good sign. We're no lock for sure, but I feel like he's our best chance at a huge surprise near signing day.
If we can hold onto all the guys we currently have (including most notably Kongbo), I'll give this D-lien haul a solid "B+". If we land Brown, upgrade it to an "A+". If we lose Kongbo, but hold onto the rest, then maybe a "B" or "B-".
Linebackers
Grade: B+
It's not completely clear what JRM will do yet, but I feel like there's about a 75% chance he's back for another season. We should have a lot of depth at LB next year, so this is also probably not the biggest position of need, but 4-star Daniel Bituli was a big win for us. We also have two 3-star LBs (Blakely and Hart). Not sure what'll happen here, but so long as we hang onto Bituli, I'll give us a "B+" here. If we lose Bituli, then maybe downgrade it to a "C".
Secondary
Grade: "B+" (best case) to "D" (downside case)
IMO secondary is our biggest position of need. We lose our top two safeties (Randolph and McNeil) and we really need more depth. We also don't know whether or not Cam Sutton is coming back for a Senior season.
Unfortunately, I'd say we're struggling the most recruiting this position this cycle. Nigel Warrior is our top target at S. He's been difficult to get a read on. Feel like Warrior is genuinely undecided and could wait to the last minute to decide. While we seem to be in decent position, it's difficult to say that we're the "favorite" with any certainty. I would not be shocked if he ended up choosing Alabama or Georgia; nor would I be surprised if he picked us. If I had to wager, I'd probably give us a 40% chance, Bama a 40% chance, and UGA a 20% chance. If we land Warrior, that would be a HUGE win for us. We need more depth at Safety bad, and feel like Warrior may even have a chance to play some as a Freshman.
Aside from Warrior, we do have 4-star Marquill Osborne and 3-star Desmond Henderson at CB. However, if we lose Willie Martinez, that could potentially make it more difficult for us to hold onto Osborne, as well.
Right now, I'd give us maybe a "C+" at this position. That's not a knock against Osborne or Henderson; just a statement on the fact that we really need some more depth at Safety, as well. If we land Warrior or find ourselves in our another top Safety prospect upgrade this to "B+". However, I will flat-out say that secondary worries me the most from this class. If we were to lose Osborne, that would be a really big blow IMO.
How Do We Finish?
If I had to predict how we'll finish, here would be my guesses.
Landon Dickerson, OG
Nathan Niehaus, OT
Velus Jones, WR
Derrick Brown, DT
Sounds like we're in good position with the top 3 on the list, and I feel like we've got a very good shot at Brown.
The two unknowns that could join:
Nigel Warrior, S
Marquez Callaway, WR
Likely there will be a few other commitments not much on the radar now and and we probably lose a couple of guys currently committed, but I don't want to speculate too much on that.
If we get the four I have listed above and hold onto all our key players (including Kongbo), I'd say this class was an overall success. Call it a solid Triple. Getting those 4 guys and Warrior would make it a Home Run for me. Sure, we won't finish in the top 10 in the recruiting rankings, but if we add strong players at every position of need given our limited numbers, that's a big WIN.
Overall
Overall, I think we're actually in better shape than people realize. There have been no shortage of frustrations for the 2016 class, and we've been in "2nd place" or "3rd place" with way more recruits than we'd like (and unfortunately in recruiting, there are no consolation prizes). Still, we look in pretty good shape at most positions of need. We might only finish 15th in the rankings, but filling our needs with good quality recruits is what's actually important. The rankings will be more meaningful in 2017 when we have better numbers.
That's all I got. Flame away
This is my "tl;dr" analysis of recruiting. I'm no expert; I just like writing and analyzing things. Read if you'd like; ignore it if not. Would love to hear other people's thoughts, as well.
The Final Ranking
First off, let's talk about the recruiting rankings. I've seen some people say this class is a failure is if it's not "top 10", but that's flat-out wrong IMO. In fact, from a pure numbers perspective, it would be extremely difficult for us to crack the top 10 in most of the recruiting services. We'd probably have to have multiple 5 stars to get there.
Comparing our class to Florida's showcases why a top 10 ranking may not be realistic. On 247 Sports, Florida's average recruit rating is 87.76, while ours is 89.10. In other words, we're recruiting "higher quality" than Florida overall. However, we're ranked #20 and Florida is ranked #7. The main reason for this is that Florida already has 25 commitments and may end up taking around 30, whereas we're at 15 commitments and may end up closer to 20. Even if we're getting higher quality recruits than Florida, we'll most likely finish well behind them in the rankings. Even Rivals, which only counts the top 20 recruits for the rankings, still factors in quantity significantly (after all, a school which takes 30 recruits is more likely to have a better top 20 than a school that takes exactly 20).
For this reason, I wouldn't focus too much on the team rankings this season. We're at an inherent disadvantage due to numbers. The more important issue is whether we're adding quality players to the roster. On that front, I feel like we're doing reasonably well.
O-Line
Grade: "A+" (best case) to "B-" (downside case)
This is the area where I feel like we're in the best shape closing. Seems like we're in good position with 4-star OG recruit Landon Dickerson. Meanwhile, we're now in on 3-star OT Nathan Niehaus, as well. We've got a very good shot at closing on both of them, and we already have 4-star OT recruit Ryan Johnson. If we grab all three of those guys, I'd call our O-line recruiting this year a major success. I really like all three of those guys. While Niehaus may only be rated at 3-stars, I feel like that kid has IMMENSE upside and has the prototypical Offensive Tackle body. I absolutely love his attitude and passion and he's exactly the type of player that Mahoney could mold into a top OT. And even if he strikes out at OT, he might work out very well at Tight End.
Overall, I like where we are right now on O-line recruiting. If we land all three guys, I'll call this O-line haul an "A+". If we only land two, then I'll call it a "B+". We're in much better shape at OL heading into 2016 than we were in 2014 or 2015, so even if we only got Johnson, it wouldn't be a total failure (we'll call it a "B-"), but I'd really much prefer to get at least 2 of these guys.
Quarterback
Grade: A
The more I see of Jarrett Guarantano, the more I like him. We will be absolutely loaded at QB next year. And as many top guys as we will have on the roster in the future, I could see JG being the QB of the future; not that he'll lack competition. It just feels like JG fits our system better than any other QB. I'm giving Butch & Co an "A" for this position.
Running Back
Grade: B
At RB, we have 4-star Carlin Fils-Aime locked up. Admittedly, I haven't really watched much footage of CFA and I also feel like RB can be a more difficult position to evaluate as a non-coach. (With a good enough OL, even an average RB can look great; and with a poor OL, even a great RB can look average.) For now, I'm giving us a "B" at RB. Still feel like we could use some more depth at RB, but looks like our best prospects to replace Hurd and Kamara are really in the 2017 class.
Wide Receiver
Grade: "A-" (best case) to "C" (downside case)
This is a position we've struggled recruiting a bit this cycle. A slot receiver is a big need. In spite of some optimism by many here, I've always felt that Mecole Hardman was a huge longshot. However, we look to be in good shape with Velus Jones. If we can lock up Jones, I'd say that would be a big step in the right direction.
We also have a shot at Marquez Calloway. He's sort of a "big mystery" when it comes to recruiting and has played things very close to the vest. He's also a top basketball prospect, but he's more in demand for football. However, he wants to play both sports. We're one of a small handful of schools that have offered him on both sports. I'd view him as an excellent addition, but difficult to know where we stand right now. Feel like we're in the top 3, but w/ little activity on his end and few public statements over the past few months, it's anyone's guess.
Thus far, we also have Jeff George, Brandon Johnson, and Corey Henderson locked up at WR. We released T. Marshall recently (more or less), which many view as a questionable decision.
We've added some prospects, but no real home runs here. Right now, I'd grade us at "C". If we land Velus Johes, that should improve to a solid "B". If we add V. Jones and Callaway or if we somehow land Mecole Hardman, then we might talk about this being an "A"
D-Line
Grade: "A+" (best case) to "B-" (downside case)
IMO D-line is not our biggest position of need, but we've had a ton of activity at this position in 2016. We have had a lot of top recruits either committed or looking at us. Unfortunately, we lost two D-line commitments recently. One was reportedly let go by the staff (Okonya), as his Senior season was a bit of a disappointment. Meanwhile, we've lost D'Andre Christmas-Giles after he received an offer from home state LSU. We recruited DCG when he was only a 2-star, so we were well ahead of the curve, but looks like it's going to be an uphill battle to sign him.
Recent commit Jonathan Kongbo is not a lock either. I gotta admit, I absolutely love this kid at DE and he has a great story, too. I'd see holding onto him as a top priority. Alexis Johnson is a very solid JUCO at DT that will give us more depth at that position, as well.
I don't know why, but I've always had a very good feeling about landing 5-star DT Derrick Brown. I try to read as much about recruiting as I can, and I thought people were overestimating our chances with 5-star recruits like Kyle Davis and Mecole Hardman, but the way Derrick Brown talks about Tennessee makes me think we might be in better shape than perceived with him. The fact that we get his last visit is also a good sign. We're no lock for sure, but I feel like he's our best chance at a huge surprise near signing day.
If we can hold onto all the guys we currently have (including most notably Kongbo), I'll give this D-lien haul a solid "B+". If we land Brown, upgrade it to an "A+". If we lose Kongbo, but hold onto the rest, then maybe a "B" or "B-".
Linebackers
Grade: B+
It's not completely clear what JRM will do yet, but I feel like there's about a 75% chance he's back for another season. We should have a lot of depth at LB next year, so this is also probably not the biggest position of need, but 4-star Daniel Bituli was a big win for us. We also have two 3-star LBs (Blakely and Hart). Not sure what'll happen here, but so long as we hang onto Bituli, I'll give us a "B+" here. If we lose Bituli, then maybe downgrade it to a "C".
Secondary
Grade: "B+" (best case) to "D" (downside case)
IMO secondary is our biggest position of need. We lose our top two safeties (Randolph and McNeil) and we really need more depth. We also don't know whether or not Cam Sutton is coming back for a Senior season.
Unfortunately, I'd say we're struggling the most recruiting this position this cycle. Nigel Warrior is our top target at S. He's been difficult to get a read on. Feel like Warrior is genuinely undecided and could wait to the last minute to decide. While we seem to be in decent position, it's difficult to say that we're the "favorite" with any certainty. I would not be shocked if he ended up choosing Alabama or Georgia; nor would I be surprised if he picked us. If I had to wager, I'd probably give us a 40% chance, Bama a 40% chance, and UGA a 20% chance. If we land Warrior, that would be a HUGE win for us. We need more depth at Safety bad, and feel like Warrior may even have a chance to play some as a Freshman.
Aside from Warrior, we do have 4-star Marquill Osborne and 3-star Desmond Henderson at CB. However, if we lose Willie Martinez, that could potentially make it more difficult for us to hold onto Osborne, as well.
Right now, I'd give us maybe a "C+" at this position. That's not a knock against Osborne or Henderson; just a statement on the fact that we really need some more depth at Safety, as well. If we land Warrior or find ourselves in our another top Safety prospect upgrade this to "B+". However, I will flat-out say that secondary worries me the most from this class. If we were to lose Osborne, that would be a really big blow IMO.
How Do We Finish?
If I had to predict how we'll finish, here would be my guesses.
Landon Dickerson, OG
Nathan Niehaus, OT
Velus Jones, WR
Derrick Brown, DT
Sounds like we're in good position with the top 3 on the list, and I feel like we've got a very good shot at Brown.
The two unknowns that could join:
Nigel Warrior, S
Marquez Callaway, WR
Likely there will be a few other commitments not much on the radar now and and we probably lose a couple of guys currently committed, but I don't want to speculate too much on that.
If we get the four I have listed above and hold onto all our key players (including Kongbo), I'd say this class was an overall success. Call it a solid Triple. Getting those 4 guys and Warrior would make it a Home Run for me. Sure, we won't finish in the top 10 in the recruiting rankings, but if we add strong players at every position of need given our limited numbers, that's a big WIN.
Overall
Overall, I think we're actually in better shape than people realize. There have been no shortage of frustrations for the 2016 class, and we've been in "2nd place" or "3rd place" with way more recruits than we'd like (and unfortunately in recruiting, there are no consolation prizes). Still, we look in pretty good shape at most positions of need. We might only finish 15th in the rankings, but filling our needs with good quality recruits is what's actually important. The rankings will be more meaningful in 2017 when we have better numbers.
That's all I got. Flame away
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