Do Last Second shots - Win vs Loss Even Out over time

#1
stllvf

stllvf

StlLVF Saw first game in 1976
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#1
Remember the shot that Davis made to beat , I believe, Arkansas in the last possession?
I can recall several March games leading to the Lady Vols national championships decided by last second put-backs

The last three SEC conference game top 10 defeats against SC,(last year) OK, LSU all decided


what do you believe as a fan in the stands or watching on TV, not a player and definitely not a first year coach
 
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#2
#2
stllvf said:
Remember the shot that Davis made to beat , I believe, Arkansas in the last possession?
I can recall several March games leading to the Lady Vols national championships decided by last second put-backs

The last three SEC conference game top 10 defeats against SC,(last year) OK, LSU all decided


what do you believe as a fan in the stands or watching on TV, not a player and definitely not a first year coach
Click to expand...

It was Alabama.
 
#6
#6
stllvf said:
Remember the shot that Davis made to beat , I believe, Arkansas in the last possession?
I can recall several March games leading to the Lady Vols national championships decided by last second put-backs

The last three SEC conference game top 10 defeats against SC,(last year) OK, LSU all decided


what do you believe as a fan in the stands or watching on TV, not a player and definitely not a first year coach
Click to expand...
It was Alabama



I enjoy seeing this often.
 
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#10
#10
stllvf said:
Remember the shot that Davis made to beat , I believe, Arkansas in the last possession?
I can recall several March games leading to the Lady Vols national championships decided by last second put-backs

The last three SEC conference game top 10 defeats against SC,(last year) OK, LSU all decided


what do you believe as a fan in the stands or watching on TV, not a player and definitely not a first year coach
Click to expand...
You ask a Q in the title and it never gets addressed

I will sum it up for you,,,,

Games aren't won in the first quarter, but they can be lost in the first quarter
and this one was a good example of that
down 26-13 at the end of Q1

IF your game comes down to the last shot, unless it is a one possession game throughout the game,,,it is BC you had a lapse that you couldn't overcome

Look at a stonecutter hammering away at his rock, perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundred-and-first blow, it will split in two, and I know it was not the last blow that did it, but all that had gone before
 
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#12
#12
Volfan2012 said:
It was Alabama



I enjoy seeing this often.
Click to expand...


Me too, Volfan2012. In all my years of going to Lady Vols games, there were plenty of loud roars of the crowd, but none any louder than when that shot finally dropped down, seemingly from the rafters, through the net. I swear it felt like the whole building shook. I'll never forget the elation of that moment. Strangers were hugging each other. I saw a couple of people crying with joy. It was a special moment.
 
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#13
#13
I have watched the highlights of several men's games recently decided by the last shot that (didn't) go in as well as when it did.

Now that the LVs have lost three games by four points - and the thread to this point is remembering the ones that the LV's won. does it average out

Jumper used the coaching story that the work put in before the game is frequently the advantage. However, the four teams the LVs have lost to - they all broke their chair of rocks.

how many of those loses were "just bad luck!"
 
#14
#14
lvocd said:
Me too, Volfan2012. In all my years of going to Lady Vols games, there were plenty of loud roars of the crowd, but none any louder than when that shot finally dropped down, seemingly from the rafters, through the net. I swear it felt like the whole building shook. I'll never forget the elation of that moment. Strangers were hugging each other. I saw a couple of people crying with joy. It was a special moment.
Click to expand...

I always enjoy seeing Lou Brown, bum leg and all, jumping up and down with both knees up to chest, right at the basket. Sheer joy.
 
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#15
#15
The answer is yes if we assume that last second shots are random events like a coin toss.

Even then, they even out over the loooong run. Let's say a coin flip has gone tails five times in a row, people intuitively think that the odds are in favor of "heads" on the next throw. However, every toss is an independent 50-50 proposition. The tosses only are only guaranteed to even out over a long series of throws, lets say a 1000 (assume there is not some bias in the coin's weighting which favors one side over another).

So, it is comforting to say that at some point the shots will drop in a way that favors the LVs winning a close game but in fact each game is an independent event. I don't think we really care how it all evens out over a 10 year period. In the long run, we are all dead.

Here is my advice (and you can all call me mad for thinking this way!!) but rather than letting games come down to the last shot and hoping that luck falls your way, the LVs should have a double digit lead going in the final seconds.
 
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#17
#17
madtownvol said:
The answer is yes if we assume that last second shots are random events like a coin toss.

Even then, they even out over the loooong run. Let's say a coin flip has gone tails five times in a row, people intuitively think that the odds are in favor of "heads" on the next throw. However, every toss is an independent 50-50 proposition. The tosses only are only guaranteed to even out over a long series of throws, lets say a 1000 (assume there is not some bias in the coin's weighting which favors one side over another).

So, it is comforting to say that at some point the shots will drop in a way that favors the LVs winning a close game but in fact each game is an independent event. I don't think we really care how it all evens out over a 10 year period. In the long run, we are all dead.

Here is my advice (and you can all call me mad for thinking this way!!) but rather than letting games come down to the last shot and hoping that luck falls your way, the LVs should have a double digit lead going in the final seconds.
Click to expand...

Et tu, Madtown?

I'm hoping that the law of averages will favor us re: injuries to key players at the most inopportune times. We've had our share or more in recent years.
 
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#18
#18
creekdipper said:
Et tu, Madtown?

I'm hoping that the law of averages will favor us re: injuries to key players at the most inopportune times. We've had our share or more in recent years.
Click to expand...
Hmm, I am not sure encouraging the LVs to build a safe lead is quite on par on with betraying Caesar. For this season, the LVs had the pre-season loss of Wynn and Jewel missed a few games but on the whole, they have been doing pretty well on the injury front, nothing quite like Rickea's extended injury spell last season.

Frustrating thing is that these are 3 games that could have been won. Even going 2-1 would felt okay but three straight close but no cigar moments is hard to take.

Of course, we are just in January and the real $ games happen in late Feb and March but these losses do put a dent in our tournament seeding which has been a problem that hamstrung the team over the last few seasons.

They really need a run of games and upsets against higher ranked opponents. How about wins against Texas, South Carolina, LSU, and Uconn?
 
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