Do we ACTUALLY favor our top WRs too much? (We Don't) Extreme TL;DR

[LouderVol]

Extreme TL;DR coming in. so much so I am breaking this into multiple posts.

I have seen the argument WAY TOO often that Heupel’s system does not use enough WR’s. The narrative is that we only play our top 4 guys, because we rarely substitute. And thus we won’t get good WRs because they don’t want to wait their turn or never get thrown to if they aren’t one of the guys on the field “all the time”. It gets thrown out all the time here in the FF, in the recruiting forum, and even by all media and website gurus. and guess what, its simply wrong.

It is simply false. It is one of a number of bad, and false, narratives about our offense. Its one thing for opposing fans or the media to use lazy arguments; but we as UT fans should not fall victim to the lies put out there. So I am here to TRY and teach you guys some truths about our offense so that we can at least not feed into the disparaging remarks about our offense.

There are a bunch of different categories you can look at and easily see we don’t fall outside the norm. Percentage of Catches, Pure Number of Catches, Number of Yards, number of TDs, are some of the most common that make sense to me that I will examine below. I only look at the Top 10 passing offense, obviously it doesn’t make sense to compare our offense to Auburn or one of the Triple Option teams, or some team that just doesn’t produce. So I focused on the best passing offense teams, fwiw we are #5 passing offense, so we are in the elite company that would be attractive enough to steal away WRs from us with stats if we favor our starters too much. For what little its worth I have done similar break downs with Bama, UGA, and Ohio State, you can find those in the Recruiting forum, I don't feel like recreating them here as there is enough information in this rant already.

Take into consideration that we had the best WR in the nation last year. So it makes sense IF we fed him too much. You always feed your top guys more, lets see how we look.

 

[LouderVol]

Percentage of Catches for the Top 10 Passing Offenses in the nation


Washington was #1. Their Top 4 caught 60%
Western Kentucky was #2. Their Top 4 caught 70%
USC was #3. Their Top 4 caught 54%
Georgia Southern was #4. Their Top 4 caught 65%
Tennessee was #5, our Top 4 caught 61%
Arizona was #6, their top 4 caught 79%
SMU was #7. Their Top 4 caught 57%
Houston was #8, Their Top 4 caught 67%
Wake Forest #9, their top 4 caught 69%
Mississippi State (RIP Mike Leach) #10, their top 4 caught 45%

drum roll please, that averages out to be..............................................62%. How much did we target our top 4? 61% we are BELOW the average of the top passing offenses for throwing to our top guys.

What about throwing to their #1 guy, maybe we targeted Hyatt “too” much?


Washington was #1. #1 Pass Catcher 21%
Western Kentucky was #2. #1 Pass Catcher 28%
USC was #3. #1 Pass Catcher 17%
Georgia Southern was #4. #1 Pass Catcher 44%
Tennessee was #5, #1 Pass Catcher 23%
Arizona was #6, #1 Pass Catcher 30%
SMU was #7. #1 Pass Catcher 28%
Houston was #8, #1 Pass Catcher 32%
Wake Forest #9, #1 Pass Catcher 27%
Mississippi State) #10, #1 Pass Catcher 12%

This one averages out to the Top 10 Passing Offenses throwing to their top guy 26%. A quick look back up says we only targeted Hyatt 23% of the time. So we are BELOW average of just feeding a star to take away from the rest.

 

[LouderVol]

Well what about pure # of catches? Maybe that changes things. I will go ahead and tell you they don’t.

Number of Catches for the Top 10 Passing Offenses in the nation

Washington was #1. Top 4, 79, 75, 41, 37
Western Kentucky was #2. Top 4, 101, 68, 63, 52
USC was #3. Top 4, 59, 50, 40, 39
Georgia Southern was #4. Top 4, 87, 66, 58, 35
Tennessee was #5, Top 4, 67, 52, 37, 31
Arizona was #6, Top 4, 85, 66, 39, 36
SMU was #7. Top 4, 96, 37, 28, 28
Houston was #8, Top 4, 109, 41, 38, 38
Wake Forest #9, Top 4, 81, 47, 42, 39
Mississippi State) #10, Top 4, 53, 46, 44, 40



Looking at the pure number doesn’t change anything from the percentages, which shouldn’t be a shock to anyone. One thing to note here is that our Number 1, the Biletnikoff winner (AKA best WR in the nation), had 9 guys in this list of 40 names catch more passes than him. Which includes two teams having two guys catch more passes than Hyatt. Again impossible to say we ball hog anyone.

there isn't a team out there that is actually THROWING to that much more to guys 5-10 than us. If you took the least percentage of catches and applied it to our offense, It averages out to 3 more catches PER GAME for the guys down the list. if 3 catches split between 5 guys is making a decision for players they need to look at their priorities.



The numbers do begin to highlight one thing that separates this offense from the rest that MIGHT explain why a WR wouldn’t want to come here. We don’t throw it that often.

 

[LouderVol]

IF there is something keeping WR from committing to us its that we don't throw it very much. and thats because we are SOOOOO much more effective than all those other offenses. our yards per attempt is the highest in the nation. our yards per completion was SECOND in the nation. to put it into perspective we ATTEMPTED fewer passes than Mississippi State COMPLETED.


Number of Pass Attempts for the Top 10 Passing Offenses in the nation


Washington was #1. 575 attempts
Western Kentucky, 623 attempts
USC was #3. 515 attempts
Georgia Southern, 611 attempts
Tennessee was #5, 422 attempts
Arizona was #6, 459 attempts
SMU was #7, 513 attempts
Houston was # 8, 500
Wake Forest #9, 473 attempts
Mississippi State #10, 638 attempts

averages out to 513 attempts. We threw 91 fewer attempts (7 per game) than the average.

You would have to go down to the Offenses 41-50 to find where our average “fits in” with the average number of attempts. We ATTEMPT at a top 50 rate, but PRODUCE at a TOP 5 rate.

 

[LouderVol]

Since I brought up yards per catch, lets look at those numbers. Maybe we only go deep to our top 4, or only put in our scrubs when we are up big and just dink and dunk with them?

Yards for the Top 10 Passing Offenses in the nation

Washington was #1. 4,807 total, 3,279 Top 4, #1 1,145
Western Kentucky, 4,929 total, 3,649 Top 4, #1 1,293
USC was #3. 4,696 total, 2,902 Top 4, #1 875
Georgia Southern, 4,289 total, 2,839 Top 4, #1 925
Tennessee was #5, 4,239 total, 2,977 Top 4, #1 1,267
Arizona was #6, 3821 Total, 3,296 Top 4, 1,105 #1
SMU was #7, 4,117 Total, 2,960 Top 4, 1,354 #1
Houston was # 8, 4,082 total, 3,054 Top 4, 1,398 #1
Wake Forest #9, 4055 total, 2949 Top 4, 1,096 #1
Mississippi State #10, 4046 total, 2110 Top 4, 626 #1


So we are 5th in the total yards given to our Top 4, and 4th in giving yards to our #1. Which is pretty par for the course considering we are #5 in passing offense, and total yards. Maybe its different in percentages?

 

[LouderVol]

Percentage of Yards for the Top 10 Passing Offenses in the nation

Washington was #1. 4,807 total, 68% Top 4, #1 24%
Western Kentucky, 4,929 total, 74% Top 4, #1 26%
USC was #3. 4,696 total, 62% Top 4, #1 19%
Georgia Southern, 4,289 total, 66% Top 4, #1 22%
Tennessee was #5, 4,239 total, 70% Top 4, #1 30%
Arizona was #6, 3821 Total, 86% Top 4, 1,105 #29%
SMU was #7, 4,117 Total, 72% Top 4, 33% #1
Houston was # 8, 4,082 total, 75% Top 4, 34% #1
Wake Forest #9, 4055 total, 73% Top 4, 27% #1
Mississippi State #10, 4046 total, 52% Top 4, 15% #1

So here our Top 4 is ranked 6th in percentages, and our Number 1 is ranked 3rd in percentages. I think that is fair considering he was the Number 1 WR in the nation. But lets look at the averages to see how far off we were.

Top 4 averages out right at 70%, right where we are.

#1 averages out at 26%, so we did average 4% more total yards to Hyatt than he “should” have had.

So our other WRs should have had about 170 total yards more than they did, based on the best WR in the nation getting “too many yards”. Divide that by 13 games, and that’s 13 yards per game. 13 yards a game, that “should” have been divided over the 5 guys we apparently don’t feature enough where it’s a problem and they “should” go play somewhere else. Realistically that would break down to something like 4 yards, 3, yards, 3 yards, 2 yards, 1 yard per those 5 guys who “didn’t get enough”.

 

[LouderVol]

Ok well who cares about yards and catches right? WRs want to score TDs, surely we gave Hyatt or our top 4 too many TDs right? Lets find out.



Total TDs for the Top 10 Passing Offenses in the nation

Washington was #1. 32 total, 23 Top 4, #1 9
Western Kentucky, 43 total, 27 Top 4, #1 11
USC was #3. 43 total, 23 Top 4, #1 8
Georgia Southern, 28 total, 18 Top 4, #1 7
Tennessee was #5, 38 total, 26 Top 4, #1 15
Arizona was #6, 26 Total, 23 Top 4, 8 #1
SMU was #7, 36 Total, 21 Top 4, 10 #1
Houston was # 8, 40 total, 31 Top 4, 17 #1
Wake Forest #9, 43 total, 35 Top 4, 11 #1
Mississippi State #10, 36 total, 22 Top 4, 8 #1

Alright so here we go, we gave Hyatt the second most TDs this year. I guess to be fair we should have given at least one or two of those Bama TDs to someone else. Gosh darn that Josh Heupel for scheming perfectly against one of the best teams, and our biggest rival, now we can’t WRs to play for us because one of our players had the craziest stat line from that game. Well lets look at percentages and see how this looks (probably not much better)

Washington was #1. 32 total, 72% Top 4, #1 28%
Western Kentucky, 43 total, 63% Top 4, #1 26%
USC was #3. 43 total, 53% Top 4, #1 19%
Georgia Southern, 28 total, 64% Top 4, #1 25%
Tennessee was #5, 38 total, 68% Top 4, #1 39%
Arizona was #6, 26 Total, 88% Top 4, 31% #1
SMU was #7, 36 Total, 58% Top 4, 28% #1
Houston was # 8, 40 total, 78% Top 4, 43% #1
Wake Forest #9, 43 total, 81% Top 4, 26% #1
Mississippi State #10, 36 total, 61% Top 4, 22% #1

So yeah, Hyatt still #2, but overall our Top 4 caught the 5th most TDs (including Hyatt) which fits right in with us being the 5th best passing offense.

Average for #1 was 29%, Average for Top 4 was 69% (nice), so we are actually below average in our Top 4 TD percentages.

So overall, the only one where we significantly gave too much to a single category was Hyatt had too many touch downs. If that is chasing away WRs they can leave.

 

[LouderVol]

And remember this was paired with a pretty good rushing game too, #26 overall. The next closest from this list of top passing games is USC @ #53. So none of these offenses were anywhere close to as balanced as we were.

NCAA College Football FBS current team Stats | NCAA.com

I really hate being stuck in online meetings where I do nothing.

 

[McDad]

IF there is something keeping WR from committing to us its that we don't throw it very much. and thats because we are SOOOOO much more effective than all those other offenses. our yards per attempt is the highest in the nation. our yards per completion was SECOND in the nation. to put it into perspective we ATTEMPTED fewer passes than Mississippi State COMPLETED.


Number of Pass Attempts for the Top 10 Passing Offenses in the nation


Washington was #1. 575 attempts
Western Kentucky, 623 attempts
USC was #3. 515 attempts
Georgia Southern, 611 attempts
Tennessee was #5, 422 attempts
Arizona was #6, 459 attempts
SMU was #7, 513 attempts
Houston was # 8, 500
Wake Forest #9, 473 attempts
Mississippi State #10, 638 attempts

averages out to 513 attempts. We threw 91 fewer attempts (7 per game) than the average.

You would have to go down to the Offenses 41-50 to find where our average “fits in” with the average number of attempts. We ATTEMPT at a top 50 rate, but PRODUCE at a TOP 5 rate.

I knew last year's offense was efficient but those stats REALLY put it into perspective.

 

[tombowalker]

Devil's advocate....

If it's a "narrative", then it's clearly something prospects are aware of and/or consider.

It doesn't have to be true to impact recruiting.

Edit:
Same can be said for the "narrative" that skillsets in Heupel's offense do not translate to the NFL. Again, truth isn't necessarily a factor.

 

[LouderVol]

Devil's advocate....

If it's a "narrative", then it's clearly something prospects are aware of and/or consider.

It doesn't have to be true to impact recruiting.

Edit:
Same can be said for the "narrative" that skillsets in Heupel's offense do not translate to the NFL. Again, truth isn't necessarily a factor.

thats why I want to at least change what our fans are saying.

If our fans/media aren't selling this false narrative its a lot easier to argue the truth of something. if our side is arguing the same false narrative its impossible to convince outsiders. clearly UT fans don't mind disagreeing with the media, Greg Schiano being a great coach among others. So I would like to shift the internal narrative to the truth, so there is at least some push back to be found instead of just an echo chamber.

 

[LouderVol]

I knew last year's offense was efficient but those stats REALLY put it into perspective.

yeah. we averaged close to a yard more per catch and attempt. and thats above the Top 10 passing offenses, so that average gets even better when you look at the rest of the nation.

 

[VolBricks]

I ain't worried bought no recruiting. Let Hyatt start blowing up in the NFL and TN will be WRU all over again.

Edit: not to mention that other WR that was drafted right after Hyatt, I think he will be a good one as well.

 

[SpookyAction]

We also had 6 receivers with 20+ receptions.
That is a decent job of spreading it around.
Plus that is 1TE, and 5 WRs.
JSmall led RBs in receptions with 12.
I am amazed Heupel's offense is so good on the ground and in the air, without having the dimension of throwing to the backfield. We only completed 17 to RBs.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

Best post I have read in years.

 

[njvols]

We also had 6 receivers with 20+ receptions.
That is a decent job of spreading it around.
Plus that is 1TE, and 5 WRs.
JSmall led RBs in receptions with 12.
I am amazed Heupel's offense is so good on the ground and in the air, without having the dimension of throwing to the backfield. We only completed 17 to RBs.

Just my opinion, but think we'll see more interior TE/Slot/RB reception balance this year to balance things more. Milton will air it out for sure, but think JH will go w/ a heavier rushing theme w/ more shorter passes and RBs to fit Milton's skill set not quite being where Hooker was on accuracy. Also, it appears our RBs will be proficient catching in space...certainly with the added help of Seldon being so versatile.

 

[BigBadVol]

Nice work LouderVol!

 

[LouderVol]

We also had 6 receivers with 20+ receptions.
That is a decent job of spreading it around.
Plus that is 1TE, and 5 WRs.
JSmall led RBs in receptions with 12.
I am amazed Heupel's offense is so good on the ground and in the air, without having the dimension of throwing to the backfield. We only completed 17 to RBs.

thats a good point.

Washington: 7 guys with 20 catches or more (373 completed passes)
Western Kentucky: 6 guys with 20 catches or more (401 completed passes)
USC: 7 guys with 20 or more catches (345 completed passes)
Georgia Southern: 7 guys with 20 or more catches (370 completed passes)
Tennessee: 6 guys with 20 or more catches (290 completed passes)
Arizona: 5 guys with 20 or more catches (283 completed passes)
SMU: 5 guys with 20 or more catches (333 completed passes)
Houston: 7 guys with 20 or more catches (337 completed passes)
Wake: 6 guys with 20 or more catches (302 completed passes)
Mississippi State: 9 guys with 20 or more catches (428 completed passes) ((Tennessee only attempted 422 passes)

We had the second lowest amount of completed passes, but are right in the pack for number of guys with 20 catches. 66 total guys with 20 catches in that group (Average is 6.6 players per team).
Average number of completed passes to get 6.6 guys: 346 passes, or 1 per 53 passes. we were 56 completed passes off the average, and getting 20 passes to a player every 48 completed passes. Which means if we had those 56 extra completed passes we would have had 7 players with 20 and been officially above average.

Outside of the players with 20 catches, these are the number of players with at least 10.

Washington: 1 guys with 10 catches or more (373 completed passes)
Western Kentucky: 3 guys with 10 catches or more (401 completed passes)
USC: 5 guys with 10 or more catches (345 completed passes)
Georgia Southern: 1 guys with 10 or more catches (370 completed passes)
Tennessee: 2 guys with 10 or more catches (290 completed passes)
Arizona: 0 guys with 10 or more catches (283 completed passes)
SMU: 5 guys with 10 or more catches (333 completed passes)
Houston: 2 guys with 10 or more catches (337 completed passes)
Wake: 0 guys with 10 or more catches (302 completed passes)
Mississippi State: 2 guys with 10 or more catches (428 completed passes)

21 guys with 10 or more catches (but less than 20). average of 2 per team, we had 2. and again 56 fewer passes to get those 2.

so this is just another case where we at least share the ball as much as the average, while averaging quiet a good bit fewer throws.

This offense is so ridiculously balanced and efficient. 2nd most yards per play in the nation. most offensive touchdowns, so its not like we are good between the 20s and fall apart in the red zone (like Clemson was. laces out Dabo, laces out).

that is literally the only critique I can find. We don't have enough offensive touches to go around because we generate so many yards per play we run out of room. How many 1:30 drives did we have ending in touchdowns? How many substitutions do most other offenses make in a minute thirty of playing time? because it can't be a lot. I don't think Heupel is substitution-phobic, I just really think our offense doesn't really need it. and when guys get into the game we give them the ball at least as much as every other top offense.

 

[SpookyAction]

Just my opinion, but think we'll see more interior TE/Slot/RB reception balance this year to balance things more. Milton will air it out for sure, but think JH will go w/ a heavier rushing theme w/ more shorter passes and RBs to fit Milton's skill set not quite being where Hooker was on accuracy. Also, it appears our RBs will be proficient catching in space...certainly with the added help of Seldon being so versatile.

I agree it would be a welcome addition to our plan. The unusual part is that it is not needed. Meaning, this offense being successful without this aspect of the passing game is very surprising.

The West Coast offense uses the RBs in the passing game to set up the receivers downfield by forcing defensive pass defense to cover more ground near the line of scrimmage. Those Bengals (QB Ken Anderson) and Colts (QB Bert Jones) West Coast offenses featured RBs catching 100+ passes each season. The late 70s Colts offense was a prime example. Their RB corps averaged 140 reception per season in the late 70s. Lydell Mitchell averaged 60 receptions for several seasons, Don McCauley average 50+ receptions during those 5 seasons, and Joe Washington caught 82 in 1980. Those offenses used Bill Walsh's offensive philosophy (Offensive co-ordinator of the Bengals, he made the scheme because his QBs had weak arms.) he used to great results with the 49ers in the 80s.

Heupel's scheme accomplishes the mission by having 5-6 yd gulps of yards from a power run game. (so far in Knoxville)
We have heard whispers that Heupel has not even opened up most of the playbook so far. He has used RBs in the passing game in the past.

In 2018, UCF TEs caught 23 passes for 291yd, UCF 2018 roster stats
2018 RBs 44 catches for 723 yds!!!!, also rushed for 2792 yds!!! UCF 2018 stats

2019 TEs 11 catches for 93yds UCF 2019 roster
2019 RBs 53 catches for 574yds, rushed for 2704 yds!!! UCF 2019 stats

2020 stats are weird, so I don't know how to put them in perspective. The passing game, overall, was just as productive as the preceding two seasons, but UCF no longer had a future NFL player in the backfield.
2020 TEs 10 catches 53yds UCF 2020 roster UCF 2020 roster
2020 RBs 33 catches for 211 yds, 1916 yards rushing UCF 2020 stats

 

[RockyTopTexas]

I mean this is a pretty dumb take in general because the only reason why we only played 3 guys last 2 years is because they were the only Wrs with experience in it.. like we aren't going to play freshman and people who don't apply themselves (Rem admitted to this himself)
We really weren't that deep at the position when it comes to knowledge of the offense

don't be surprised to see it again this year... Bru, Squirrel, Rem and add Thorton. Rem will be outside looking in once again imo but kid has made some incredible plays for us

this is nothing and should be considered as common

ALSO.. we gonna get ours in time when it comes to recruiting. Trust me

 

[ftsandersvol]

Someone needs a hobby.

 

[BruisedOrange]

...that is literally the only critique I can find. We don't have enough offensive touches to go around because we generate so many yards per play we run out of room. How many 1:30 drives did we have ending in touchdowns? How many substitutions do most other offenses make in a minute thirty of playing time? because it can't be a lot. I don't think Heupel is substitution-phobic, I just really think our offense doesn't really need it. and when guys get into the game we give them the ball at least as much as every other top offense.

Gee. I guess the only way to improve would be as our defense improves, giving us more possessions per game.
Yeah.
That works for me.

 

[CAVPUT]

Someone needs a hobby.

Well, it's hard when TEWLKD%%^)ROUEW-FGLLLI

 

[ftsandersvol]

Well, it's hard when TEWLKD%%^)ROUEW-FGLLLI

 

[LouderVol]

Gee. I guess the only way to improve would be as our defense improves, giving us more possessions per game.
Yeah.
That works for me.

good problem to have. even one more drive a game would be a big help.