Does the 5 seed in the CFP hold the cheat code??

[NEWDAYVOL]

Seems like it. 5 seed plays the 12th seed (likely a "G5" team) in the first round and then possibly the 13-17th best team in country in the second round against the 4th best conference champ.

Going to be interesting this year. There could be 2 teams in the top 12 who don't get in...so that the ACC & "G5" champ can.

For us to feel safe in the CFP we either need to win the SEC championship or finish in the top 9.

Great to have a 12 team playoff this year...but there will still be tons of drama and teams getting screwed at the end of the year. Can you imagine being ranked 11th, playing our schedule, and losing the playoff spot to an unranked Northern Illinois, Memphis, or Liberty.

 

[Vol49er]

I fell like if you don’t finish in the top ten in college football at the end of the regular season, you don’t have the right to feel screwed out of a chance at the national title

 

[Notorious B.E.N]

Yes

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Let's consider how this might work out in a recent year. Let's take 2022, since the Vols did so well that season.

First, who were the five highest-ranked conference champs (because they would all be guaranteed a playoff spot)?

#1 Georgia was the SEC champ
#2 Michigan won the B10
#7 Clemson was ACC champion
#8 Utah was the PAC's leader
#9 Kansas State won the B12

The first four of those would have been slotted for first round byes, so would start like this:

1-seed - #1 Georgia
2-seed - #2 Michigan
3-seed - #7 Clemson
4-seed - #8 Utah

Oh, and one other team would be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, as well--the highest-ranked G5 team. That would be #16 Tulane.

So 6 spots taken, the rest would be given, in order, to the highest ranking remaining teams.

5-seed - #3 TCU
6-seed - #4 Ohio State
7-seed - #5 Alabama
8-seed - #6 Tennessee
9-seed - #9 Kansas State
10-seed - #10 USCw
11-seed - #11 Penn State
12-seed - #16 Tulane

Now, let's follow a few teams through the brackets, to get a feel for who might have the easier road. Of course, we'll follow the 5-seed, that's what this thread is about. But let's also follow the 1-seed, the 4-seed, and the Vols (6-seed).

5-seed: #3 TCU would have been the 5-seed. Remember, they were the cinderella team of that season--picked to lose game after game, they just kept winning, until losing to Kansas State in the B12 championship game. Nonetheless, the CFP Committee put them in the playoffs.

In this alternate world with a 2022 12-team playoff, TCU would've faced #16 Tulane in the first round. If they'd won, in the next round they would take on #8 Utah. Then, in the semi-finals, they'd get #1 UGa (or #6 Tennessee), then finally if they kept winning, #2 Michigan (or someone who beat Michigan). Their sequence of opponents: #16, #8, #1, #2 at highest.

8-seed: the Vols, by comparison, would have this sequence: home game in the first round against #9 Kansas State ... then #3 TCU ... then #1 UGa .... finishing off with #2 Michigan. Sequence: #9, #3, #1, #2. Significantly harder than the 5-seed's path.

4-seed: #8 Utah would start with a bye ... then face #3 TCU ... then #1 UGa ... and then #2 Michigan. That's a rough route: bye, #3, #1, #2. Allowing for the bye, it would otherwise be just as hard as the 8-seed path.

Finally, let's follow:

1-seed UGa: in the first round, they would have a bye ... then #6 Tennessee ... then #8 Utah ... and finally 2-seed #2 Michigan. Their sequence: bye, #6, #8, #2.

Easiest path: starting in the 1-seed spot. Of course.

But as the OP pointed out, the 5-seed path would be pretty sweet, too. Certainly better than the 4-seed or 8-seed.

Go Vols!

 

[ntxVOL]

The automatic qualifiers are a terrible idea. Handing 4 of those AQs seeds 1-4 is an even worse idea.

But if we must do AQs:

Rank the teams and take the top 12, remove teams from the bottom to add lower ranked AQs as required, seed according to ranking.

 

[bpalmer28]

Let's consider how this might work out in a recent year. Let's take 2022, since the Vols did so well that season.

First, who were the five highest-ranked conference champs (because they would all be guaranteed a playoff spot)?

#1 Georgia was the SEC champ
#2 Michigan won the B10
#7 Clemson was ACC champion
#8 Utah was the PAC's leader
#9 Kansas State won the B12

The first four of those would have been slotted for first round byes, so would start like this:

1-seed - #1 Georgia
2-seed - #2 Michigan
3-seed - #7 Clemson
4-seed - #8 Utah

Oh, and one other team would be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, as well--the highest-ranked G5 team. That would be #16 Tulane.

So 6 spots taken, the rest would be given, in order, to the highest ranking remaining teams.

5-seed - #3 TCU
6-seed - #4 Ohio State
7-seed - #5 Alabama
8-seed - #6 Tennessee
9-seed - #9 Kansas State
10-seed - #10 USCw
11-seed - #11 Penn State
12-seed - #16 Tulane

Now, let's follow a few teams through the brackets, to get a feel for who might have the easier road. Of course, we'll follow the 5-seed, that's what this thread is about. But let's also follow the 1-seed, the 4-seed, and the Vols (6-seed).

5-seed: #3 TCU would have been the 5-seed. Remember, they were the cinderella team of that season--picked to lose game after game, they just kept winning, until losing to Kansas State in the B12 championship game. Nonetheless, the CFP Committee put them in the playoffs.

In this alternate world with a 2022 12-team playoff, TCU would've faced #16 Tulane in the first round. If they'd won, in the next round they would take on #8 Utah. Then, in the semi-finals, they'd get #1 UGa (or #6 Tennessee), then finally if they kept winning, #2 Michigan (or someone who beat Michigan). Their sequence of opponents: #16, #8, #1, #2 at highest.

8-seed: the Vols, by comparison, would have this sequence: home game in the first round against #9 Kansas State ... then #3 TCU ... then #1 UGa .... finishing off with #2 Michigan. Sequence: #9, #3, #1, #2. Significantly harder than the 5-seed's path.

4-seed: #8 Utah would start with a bye ... then face #3 TCU ... then #1 UGa ... and then #2 Michigan. That's a rough route: bye, #3, #1, #2. Allowing for the bye, it would otherwise be just as hard as the 8-seed path.

Finally, let's follow:

1-seed UGa: in the first round, they would have a bye ... then #6 Tennessee ... then #8 Utah ... and finally 2-seed #2 Michigan. Their sequence: bye, #6, #8, #2.

Easiest path: starting in the 1-seed spot. Of course.

But as the OP pointed out, the 5-seed path would be pretty sweet, too. Certainly better than the 4-seed or 8-seed.

Go Vols!

Excellent

 

[temptn]

Let's consider how this might work out in a recent year. Let's take 2022, since the Vols did so well that season.

First, who were the five highest-ranked conference champs (because they would all be guaranteed a playoff spot)?

#1 Georgia was the SEC champ
#2 Michigan won the B10
#7 Clemson was ACC champion
#8 Utah was the PAC's leader
#9 Kansas State won the B12

The first four of those would have been slotted for first round byes, so would start like this:

1-seed - #1 Georgia
2-seed - #2 Michigan
3-seed - #7 Clemson
4-seed - #8 Utah

Oh, and one other team would be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, as well--the highest-ranked G5 team. That would be #16 Tulane.

So 6 spots taken, the rest would be given, in order, to the highest ranking remaining teams.

5-seed - #3 TCU
6-seed - #4 Ohio State
7-seed - #5 Alabama
8-seed - #6 Tennessee
9-seed - #9 Kansas State
10-seed - #10 USCw
11-seed - #11 Penn State
12-seed - #16 Tulane

Now, let's follow a few teams through the brackets, to get a feel for who might have the easier road. Of course, we'll follow the 5-seed, that's what this thread is about. But let's also follow the 1-seed, the 4-seed, and the Vols (6-seed).

5-seed: #3 TCU would have been the 5-seed. Remember, they were the cinderella team of that season--picked to lose game after game, they just kept winning, until losing to Kansas State in the B12 championship game. Nonetheless, the CFP Committee put them in the playoffs.

In this alternate world with a 2022 12-team playoff, TCU would've faced #16 Tulane in the first round. If they'd won, in the next round they would take on #8 Utah. Then, in the semi-finals, they'd get #1 UGa (or #6 Tennessee), then finally if they kept winning, #2 Michigan (or someone who beat Michigan). Their sequence of opponents: #16, #8, #1, #2 at highest.

8-seed: the Vols, by comparison, would have this sequence: home game in the first round against #9 Kansas State ... then #3 TCU ... then #1 UGa .... finishing off with #2 Michigan. Sequence: #9, #3, #1, #2. Significantly harder than the 5-seed's path.

4-seed: #8 Utah would start with a bye ... then face #3 TCU ... then #1 UGa ... and then #2 Michigan. That's a rough route: bye, #3, #1, #2. Allowing for the bye, it would otherwise be just as hard as the 8-seed path.

Finally, let's follow:

1-seed UGa: in the first round, they would have a bye ... then #6 Tennessee ... then #8 Utah ... and finally 2-seed #2 Michigan. Their sequence: bye, #6, #8, #2.

Easiest path: starting in the 1-seed spot. Of course.

But as the OP pointed out, the 5-seed path would be pretty sweet, too. Certainly better than the 4-seed or 8-seed.

Go Vols!

Could you explain this in a little more detail?

.

 

[chuckiepoo]

First, who were the five highest-ranked conference champs (because they would all be guaranteed a playoff spot)?

So far, so good.

Oh, and one other team would be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, as well--the highest-ranked G5 team. That would be #16 Tulane.

This is where ya go off the track. TCU would get the fifth AQ slot. The only reason a G5 champion gets a slot this year is because PAC 2 doesn’t have enough members to qualify.

 

[Will74]

Let's consider how this might work out in a recent year. Let's take 2022, since the Vols did so well that season.

First, who were the five highest-ranked conference champs (because they would all be guaranteed a playoff spot)?

#1 Georgia was the SEC champ
#2 Michigan won the B10
#7 Clemson was ACC champion
#8 Utah was the PAC's leader
#9 Kansas State won the B12

The first four of those would have been slotted for first round byes, so would start like this:

1-seed - #1 Georgia
2-seed - #2 Michigan
3-seed - #7 Clemson
4-seed - #8 Utah

Oh, and one other team would be guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, as well--the highest-ranked G5 team. That would be #16 Tulane.

So 6 spots taken, the rest would be given, in order, to the highest ranking remaining teams.

5-seed - #3 TCU
6-seed - #4 Ohio State
7-seed - #5 Alabama
8-seed - #6 Tennessee
9-seed - #9 Kansas State
10-seed - #10 USCw
11-seed - #11 Penn State
12-seed - #16 Tulane

Now, let's follow a few teams through the brackets, to get a feel for who might have the easier road. Of course, we'll follow the 5-seed, that's what this thread is about. But let's also follow the 1-seed, the 4-seed, and the Vols (6-seed).

5-seed: #3 TCU would have been the 5-seed. Remember, they were the cinderella team of that season--picked to lose game after game, they just kept winning, until losing to Kansas State in the B12 championship game. Nonetheless, the CFP Committee put them in the playoffs.

In this alternate world with a 2022 12-team playoff, TCU would've faced #16 Tulane in the first round. If they'd won, in the next round they would take on #8 Utah. Then, in the semi-finals, they'd get #1 UGa (or #6 Tennessee), then finally if they kept winning, #2 Michigan (or someone who beat Michigan). Their sequence of opponents: #16, #8, #1, #2 at highest.

8-seed: the Vols, by comparison, would have this sequence: home game in the first round against #9 Kansas State ... then #3 TCU ... then #1 UGa .... finishing off with #2 Michigan. Sequence: #9, #3, #1, #2. Significantly harder than the 5-seed's path.

4-seed: #8 Utah would start with a bye ... then face #3 TCU ... then #1 UGa ... and then #2 Michigan. That's a rough route: bye, #3, #1, #2. Allowing for the bye, it would otherwise be just as hard as the 8-seed path.

Finally, let's follow:

1-seed UGa: in the first round, they would have a bye ... then #6 Tennessee ... then #8 Utah ... and finally 2-seed #2 Michigan. Their sequence: bye, #6, #8, #2.

Easiest path: starting in the 1-seed spot. Of course.

But as the OP pointed out, the 5-seed path would be pretty sweet, too. Certainly better than the 4-seed or 8-seed.

Go Vols!

Dang you just went deep on that one ,hats off .Great info

 

[volKano]

I fell like if you don’t finish in the top ten in college football at the end of the regular season, you don’t have the right to feel screwed out of a chance at the national title

But there are 12 teams.

 

[vol94]

The automatic qualifiers are a terrible idea. Handing 4 of those AQs seeds 1-4 is an even worse idea.

But if we must do AQs:

Rank the teams and take the top 12, remove teams from the bottom to add lower ranked AQs as required, seed according to ranking.

It’s almost similar to the NFL except college has conferences instead of divisions. The NFL has wild card teams with better records than division winners.

 

[JustFunnN'Orange]

I fell like if you don’t finish in the top ten in college football at the end of the regular season, you don’t have the right to feel screwed out of a chance at the national title

Think I understand and agree with what you're saying but, have you read the crazzy AZZ rules the NCAA has put forth to define who's in and who's out??

 

[ntxVOL]

It’s almost similar to the NFL except college has conferences instead of divisions. The NFL has wild card teams with better records than division winners.

Except the NFL has a clear and objective process for qualifying for the post season.

This just a way for CFB to say we have a "fair" process. The selection committee is really not needed anymore except for introducing their biases.

Just let a damn computer pick the 12 best teams and be done with it.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

So far, so good.

This is where ya go off the track. TCU would get the fifth AQ slot. The only reason a G5 champion gets a slot this year is because PAC 2 doesn’t have enough members to qualify.

Well, Kansas State--not TCU--got the fifth AQ slot. Because KSU beat TCU in the conference championship game that year. I did include them. They'd have made it anyway, given their #9 ranking, but they were guaranteed a spot by the AQ rule.

But I think there is a separate rule, a promise of sorts, that the top-ranked non-Power 5 team is in.

Could be wrong, but I think it's in the rule set as well.

Go Vols!

 

[VFL-82-JP]

Just let a damn computer pick the 12 best teams and be done with it.

But we learned during the BCS era that computers sometimes come up with wonky results, and need human oversight to keep them from drawing waaaaay outside the lines from time to time.

And this week's ESPN FPI index is a perfect example. It has Notre Dame, which just lost to NIU, in the #7 spot. Notre Dame would be in the playoffs if this were the end of the season and we blindly followed this particular computer.

2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

And that is why the BCS "two polls and five computers" formula was scrapped in favor of a panel of human beings in the CFP.

Go Vols!

 

[Raebo]

You control your own destiny by finishing near the top. If you are not in the top 6 or so, then you are letting others control your destiny.
IMO, if you can’t finish in the top 6 or 7, then you don’t have much room to gripe. Really, there is very little difference between a 10th ranked team and a 15th ranked team.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Would you rather be UGA or Ohio State? Pretty clear answer