Drafting Stars

#1
zehr27

zehr27

I'm a lawyer
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Jul 13, 2007
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#1
Here is the break down for the first round of the NFL draft. Does stars really matter???

Rivals 2 star- 6
Rivals 3 star- 7
Rivals 4 star- 14
Rivals 5 star- 5
 
#2
#2
I've always thought stars are somewhat subjective because everyone plays against different levels of competition. At the same time, players have a great chance to improve against good competition in college. Those 2 and 3 stars probably stayed in school and developed longer than the 4 and 5 stars also.
 
#3
#3
zehr27 said:
Here is the break down for the first round of the NFL draft. Does stars really matter???

Rivals 2 star- 6
Rivals 3 star- 7
Rivals 4 star- 14
Rivals 5 star- 5
Click to expand...

Considering there are thousands of 2 and 3 stars, and only a small number of five stars... Yes. Your numbers show that stars empirically do matter.
 
#4
#4
IPorange said:
Considering there are thousands of 2 and 3 stars, and only a small number of five stars... Yes. Your numbers show that stars empirically do matter.
Click to expand...

Dang beat me to it. Of course they matter. Its not even close, in fact this is good representation of how valuable 5 stars are.
 
#5
#5
IPorange said:
Considering there are thousands of 2 and 3 stars, and only a small number of five stars... Yes. Your numbers show that stars empirically do matter.
Click to expand...

Thats the point I was trying to make. The 4 and 5 stars are really the bread and butter in recruiting.
 
#6
#6
zehr27 said:
Thats the point I was trying to make. The 4 stars are really the bread and butter in recruiting.
Click to expand...

Yes only because there are such a limited amount of 5 stars. Rivals graded like 26 players 5 stars while their are way more than 3x the amount of 4 stars (3x being the number of 4 stars drafted over 5).
 
#7
#7
Yes. Stars are a good predictor for the guys who get noticed. IOW's a high percentage of 5* and 4* players that get drafted. OTOH, it is unreasonable to expect the recruiting svcs to find every guy with elite talent or even more guys who have hidden potential that they fulfill.

Dan Williams was a 3* OG who was on the short side to say the least. No one anticipated that he'd become one of the best DT's in the country.
 
#8
#8
I would be interested to see how many OL and DLs were in the 2 and 3 star category and how many skill position players including DEs were 4 and 5 stars.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#9
#9
zehr27 said:
Here is the break down for the first round of the NFL draft. Does stars really matter???

Rivals 2 star- 6
Rivals 3 star- 7
Rivals 4 star- 14
Rivals 5 star- 5
Click to expand...

You've provided evidence that they do, indeed matter. 19 /XXX. 13/XXXXX. Yep they matter.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#10
#10
Montori Hughes looks like a 4 or 5 star guy now...Remember he was a last minute addition from a school that wasn't really putting D 1 guys out...He was a 2 star with few offers...They still miss a lot too like 5 *Ahmad Paige and #1 LBs 5*'s Chris Donald and Willie Williams who went to Miami
 
#11
#11
volman85 said:
Montori Hughes looks like a 4 or 5 star guy now...Remember he was a last minute addition from a school that wasn't really putting D 1 guys out...He was a 2 star with few offers...They still miss a lot too like 5 *Ahmad Paige and #1 LBs 5*'s Chris Donald and Willie Williams who went to Miami
Click to expand...

Pretty sure Hughes was graded low because he wasn't supposed to qualify.
 
#12
#12
They absoloutly matter. The point has been made several times and continues to be made. Later in the recruiting year however, you will have MANY on this site arguing until they are blue in the face that stars make no difference. I do not even get into those conversations anymore because it obviously matters and u can't make a case stronger than this op has made....GBO
 
#14
#14
By percentages, they do, but if a player doesn't develop while on campus, they don't. It's all about a player's drive to be the best, 1* or 5*. Find those players, and regardless of their rankings, you will succeed as a program.
 
#16
#16
volman85 said:
Montori Hughes looks like a 4 or 5 star guy now...Remember he was a last minute addition from a school that wasn't really putting D 1 guys out...He was a 2 star with few offers...They still miss a lot too like 5 *Ahmad Paige and #1 LBs 5*'s Chris Donald and Willie Williams who went to Miami
Click to expand...

Paige was a 4-star on Rivals and Scout. And he still has two years of college to play at a FBS school. Little premature on the "miss" aspect, even if he didn't do anything of note here.
 
#17
#17
I would like to see a breakdown on what percentage of OL that grade 2*,3*,etc. make it to the league, broken down by round. I would think that that it is a higher percentage of lower star players than other positions.

As others have said, you can't compare sheer numbers of each star category taken in a round due to the different numbers of players that are allowed into each category. You have to look at percentages to answer the question of whether or not stars matter.
 
#18
#18
it's amazing that the evaluation of a kid at the age of 16-18 seems to be a fairly good indicator as to their chances of getting drafted into the nfl...goes to show you how far raw talent and genetics will get you
 
#19
#19
EricFreakingBerry said:
Paige was a 4-star on Rivals and Scout. And he still has two years of college to play at a FBS school. Little premature on the "miss" aspect, even if he didn't do anything of note here.
Click to expand...

How is it premature to think A Paige is not "as advertised" (FSU and LSU wanted him) when he could NOT get on the field at UT and was passed up by TRUE FRESHMEN in the rotation. No disrespect to him but he is at La Tech now and there was no reason to think he was any better than Todd Campbell who is still on our team.

And pretty sure Willie Williams out of high school had enough baggage with the LAW and ACADEMICALLY that he should have been deemed "high risk" too.

Two more came to mind..Walk-ons Nick Reveiz and USC's walkon LB to 1st rounder Clay Matthews.

I see the correlation, just saying it has as much error on the other side.

PS Does that mean that Oklahoma had the best team last yr since they had 4 of the top 10 picked. Rank em'.:)
 
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