Early betting lines released for Florida/Bama/Georgia

#1
KnoxRealtorVOL

KnoxRealtorVOL

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#1
They seem about right except that Bama line seems really high.

I guess they think Milton/Squirrel can't do the exact same thing against them that Hooker/Hyatt did.

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#6
#6
Some of these home field advantages in the SEC are worth 10-14 points in the right circumstances. I think ours was for the Alabama game last year, and I think Georgia’s was for them. LSU’s . . . not so much. We were able to take the crowd out of it early . . . and the early kickoff meant a larger % of their crowd was sober.
 
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#8
#8
cbrown said:
Some of these home field advantages in the SEC are worth 10-14 points in the right circumstances. I think ours was for the Alabama game last year, and I think Georgia’s was for them. LSU’s . . . not so much. We were able to take the crowd out of it early . . . and the early kickoff meant a larger % of their crowd was sober.
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Take or put the crowd in early is sometimes key. I say the first few series at Georgia last year sealed the deal.
 
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#10
#10
cbrown said:
Some of these home field advantages in the SEC are worth 10-14 points in the right circumstances. I think ours was for the Alabama game last year, and I think Georgia’s was for them. LSU’s . . . not so much. We were able to take the crowd out of it early . . . and the early kickoff meant a larger % of their crowd was sober.
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Bama was not 10-14 points better than us on a neutral field.
 
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#12
#12
cbrown said:
Maybe not, but it’s unlikely we win that game on a neutral field. Didn’t Bama have something like 11 pre-snap penalties? We had about as many at UGA.
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That's not true.

We also put the ball on the ground in front of their end zone for a free TD. We also put them in field goal range to seal the game. They still couldn't win.

We shared two mutual opponents with them, LSU and Vandy. We throttled LSU and Bama lost to them. We played Vandy better at Vandy than Bama played them at home.

We were just a better team than Bama.
 
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#14
#14
knox-townVOL said:
That's not true.

We also put the ball on the ground in front of their end zone for a free TD. We also put them in field goal range to seal the game. They still couldn't win.

We shared two mutual opponents with them, LSU and Vandy. We throttled LSU and Bama lost to them. We played Vandy better at Vandy than Bama played them at home.

We were just a better team than Bama.
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And Alabama SHOULD have lost to Texas. That was a 3 or 4 loss worthy squad last year although their fans don’t want to hear it. They won’t know what to do if they have another „off“ season this year.
 
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#15
#15
knox-townVOL said:
They seem about right except that Bama line seems really high.

I guess they think Milton/Squirrel can't do the exact same thing against them that Hooker/Hyatt did.

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Here's how I'm reading this:

Tennessee is a two-score better team than Florida. But the game is at Florida, which reduces the Vols advantage from 10.5 down to 7.5 points. Right at the edge of a one-full-score advantage.

Both Bama and UGa are expected to be better than the Vols: Bama by slightly less than a touchdown (6.5 point advantage), but UGa closer to a touchdown and a half (10.5 point adv.). Adjusted for home game advantages (3 points in the home team's favor, typically), that puts the Vols-Bama line (at Bama's place) at -9.5 for the pachyderms, while the UGa game (in Neyland Stadium) is -7.5 for the dawgs.

And every bit of that makes sense to me, short of knowing which Joe Milton we'll have in 2023. But if he's hot, we can win them all.

Go Vols!
 
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#16
#16
OrangeTsar said:
And Alabama SHOULD have lost to Texas. That was a 3 or 4 loss worthy squad last year although their fans don’t want to hear it. They won’t know what to do if they have another „off“ season this year.
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They also could have very easily lost to A&M at home and at Ole Miss. Both of those teams had an opportunity to win the game on the last drive inside the red zone. Last year's Bama team team was every bit as close to being 7-5 as they were to being undefeated.
 
#17
#17
knox-townVOL said:
That's not true.

We also put the ball on the ground in front of their end zone for a free TD. We also put them in field goal range to seal the game. They still couldn't win.

We shared two mutual opponents with them, LSU and Vandy. We throttled LSU and Bama lost to them. We played Vandy better at Vandy than Bama played them at home.

We were just a better team than Bama.
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Bama muffed a punt that gave us 7 . . . Gibbs dropped a gimme that likely would have sealed it. You can find examples both ways. I don’t believe that game is a 3-point TN win on a neutral field or in Tuscaloosa. Neyland Stadium was a significant advantage on that night.
 
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#19
#19
VFL-82-JP said:
Here's how I'm reading this:

Tennessee is a two-score better team than Florida. But the game is at Florida, which reduces the Vols advantage from 10.5 down to 7.5 points. Right at the edge of a one-full-score advantage.

Both Bama and UGa are expected to be better than the Vols: Bama by slightly less than a touchdown (6.5 point advantage), but UGa closer to a touchdown and a half (10.5 point adv.). Adjusted for home game advantages (3 points in the home team's favor, typically), that puts the Vols-Bama line (at Bama's place) at -9.5 for the pachyderms, while the UGa game (in Neyland Stadium) is -7.5 for the dawgs.

And every bit of that makes sense to me, short of knowing which Joe Milton we'll have in 2023. But if he's hot, we can win them all.

Go Vols!
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I like the way you think.
 
#21
#21
cbrown said:
Bama muffed a punt that gave us 7 . . . Gibbs dropped a gimme that likely would have sealed it. You can find examples both ways. I don’t believe that game is a 3-point TN win on a neutral field or in Tuscaloosa. Neyland Stadium was a significant advantage on that night.
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I thought Bryce Young was a significant advantage that night. Even with the crowd that dude made some plays that everybody can't make. Without him I don't think the game is close.
 
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#25
#25
cbrown said:
Bama muffed a punt that gave us 7 . . . Gibbs dropped a gimme that likely would have sealed it. You can find examples both ways. I don’t believe that game is a 3-point TN win on a neutral field or in Tuscaloosa. Neyland Stadium was a significant advantage on that night.
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Neyland was definitely special that day, but they didn’t stop us much. That muffed punt didn’t give us 7. It give us the opportunity for 7. We went down the field and made that happen. I believe that drive concluded with an offset I formation where Fant scored on the dive. Bama had no idea what we were running .

Also, let’s not forget that Bama was also gifted a PI in the end zone on 3rd down where Bryce Young was running for his life and the Bama WR pulled our corner down by his pads and they called it on us. That should’ve been a huge penalty that could’ve backed them up and most likely wouldn’t have led to a touchdown. Instead they got a goal to go situation
 
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