Economic News

#1
lawgator1

lawgator1

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#1
The deficit might end up being substantially less this year than expected ($300 billion less).

Also, the estimated loss on the TARP program is estimated to come in at a third of what was originally expected. And some think it might actually break even or turn a small proft.

This is the kind of news that makes the GOP cringe. If unemployment gets to below 9 percent and continues trending downard as we hit the end of the summer, the predicted GOP gains will evaporate. The nation's success would spell their failure.
 
#3
#3
ummm who started the tarp program exactly? why is this bad news for the gop? the only non gov't people not paying the money back now are GM and Chrysler which is obama's fault. and do you think it's a coincidence that the deficit will be less than expected by the exact amount of money paid back by bush's tarp program?
 
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i'd also like to point out that i accurately predicted obama and the democrats would take credit for the success of the tarp program.
 
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droski said:
ummm who started the tarp program exactly? why is this bad news for the gop? the only non gov't people not paying the money back now are GM and Chrysler which is obama's fault. and do you think it's a coincidence that the deficit will be less than expected by the exact amount of money paid back by bush's tarp program?
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1) Bush, with Obama's support. 2) AIG and the automakers are the ones holding up a profit. Predictions are that if the economy continues to improve, they will repay plus the vig. 3) The current GOP leadership are all on record blasting the TARP, and Obama for supporting it, and so they will have to tread lightly in criticizing or taking credit for it, 4) Even fi everything you say is correct, most folks won't get into the nitty gritty of it, just as long as they see things getting better for them. The incumbents will ride a wave of at least apathy.

Bottom line: If the electorate are fat, dumb, and happy, they don't bother to vote in the midterms.
 
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droski said:
i'd also like to point out that i accurately predicted obama and the democrats would take credit for the success of the tarp program.
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Of course they will.

Obama actually did support it. Gave a lot of credit to Bush for having the stones to stand up to the fiscal conservatives to do what had to be done to keep things stable.
 
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lawgator1 said:
1) Bush, with Obama's support. 2) AIG and the automakers are the ones holding up a profit. Predictions are that if the economy continues to improve, they will repay plus the vig. 3) The current GOP leadership are all on record blasting the TARP, and Obama for supporting it, and so they will have to tread lightly in criticizing or taking credit for it, 4) Even fi everything you say is correct, most folks won't get into the nitty gritty of it, just as long as they see things getting better for them. The incumbents will ride a wave of at least apathy.

Bottom line: If the electorate are fat, dumb, and happy, they don't bother to vote in the midterms.
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You can give it up, the dems will lose 50 or so seats in the House and maybe even lose the Senate.
 
#8
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lawgator1 said:
1) Bush, with Obama's support. 2) AIG and the automakers are the ones holding up a profit. Predictions are that if the economy continues to improve, they will repay plus the vig. 3) The current GOP leadership are all on record blasting the TARP, and Obama for supporting it, and so they will have to tread lightly in criticizing or taking credit for it, 4) Even fi everything you say is correct, most folks won't get into the nitty gritty of it, just as long as they see things getting better for them. The incumbents will ride a wave of at least apathy.

Bottom line: If the electorate are fat, dumb, and happy, they don't bother to vote in the midterms.
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this is some amazing revisionism. First off obama wanted the banks to give up FAR more equity and was not supportive in the slightest of the bush plan. He reluctantly supported it, but after they used to money to put equity into the banks rather than to buy assets he and frank went ape crap. It was the democrats that were against the TARP. And AIG is well on it's way to paying it off. The autos will never pay it off.

lawgator1 said:
Of course they will.

Obama actually did support it. Gave a lot of credit to Bush for having the stones to stand up to the fiscal conservatives to do what had to be done to keep things stable.
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you can't be serious. A) obama did not support the bush version and b) bush was being blasted by the democrats for being in the pocket of the business leaders. what world were you living in? you don't remember YOUR outrage over the tarp?
 
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droski said:
this is some amazing revisionism. First off obama wanted the banks to give up FAR more equity and was not supportive in the slightest of the bush plan. He reluctantly supported it, but after they used to money to put equity into the banks rather than to buy assets he and frank went ape crap. It was the democrats that were against the TARP. And AIG is well on it's way to paying it off. The autos will never pay it off.



you can't be serious. A) obama did not support the bush version and b) bush was being blasted by the democrats for being in the pocket of the business leaders. what world were you living in? you don't remember YOUR outrage over the tarp?
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I believe my posiiton was that it was disgusting that the excesses of so few had put us in the position we found ourselves in, but that I saw it as a necessary evil.
 
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a democrat taking credit for someone else's work... weird.

how can you say the economy is rebounding when people are still losing jobs left and right. I hate to tell you, but welfare and government handouts do not count as jobs
 
#13
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lawgator1 said:
Predictions are that if the economy continues to improve, they will repay plus the vig.
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Please show me these predictions. GM may repay the loans but they were a small part of the package. To repay the equity, GM's market cap has to be substantially higher than it was at the company's peak market cap - way back when they had a significant market share advantage.

Unless we have huge inflation, GM will not pay back the tax payers in any reasonable time.

Paulsen's (Bush") plan worked. Obama's additions may have had an impact on saving auto jobs but will result in a massive subsidy from tax payers.
 
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ObamaKooladeGIF.gif
 
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The trillions of mortgages at ridiculously low rates that fannie and freddie are buying is absolutely the real cost of the tarp. this could be a huge problem if long term rates rise over the next 10 years.
 
#18
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This thread seems premature. It's way too early to know how a lot of this will shake out.
 
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not really. most of hte banks have paid the tarp back. many have bought back the warrents with huge profit to american taxpayers.
 
#21
#21
wow, a whole 300 billion less.

guess what? the democrats will find ways to spend that.
 
#22
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paul1454 said:
You don't happen to have a link to this do you? I have looked for it and can't find anything to support this.
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he's right that it has been revisioned down, but only because they haven't changed anything but the tarp numbers. in other words, thank bush.
 
#23
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droski said:
he's right that it has been revisioned down, but only because they haven't changed anything but the tarp numbers. in other words, thank bush.
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Okay, thanks. That's what I was going to look for. I wanted to see where we were finding increased savings or revenues, other than the TARP repayments. Guess there isn't anything else.
 
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The Congressional Budget Office hiked its forecast Tuesday for how much the stimulus bill will add to the nation's deficit, raising its estimate by $75 billion to $862 billion.

....
CBO's initial estimate for the Recovery Act, the unemployment rate was expected to cap at 9%, but the rate rose above 9% in May and soared above 10% in October.

As a result, the CBO said unemployment compensation in 2009 and 2010 will cost $58 billion. That's $21 billion more than initially expected.

....

Nearly half of the additional $75 billion comes from more spending on food stamp benefits than originally anticipated. CBO said in its February 2009 estimate that the government would spend $20 billion on increased food stamp benefits through 2019, but it now believes that amount will be closer to $54 billion.

Stimulus now $75 billion more expensive - Jan. 26, 2010

So 1 year later they have already revised these particular estimates by about 36% and over 100% respectively. Wonder what the revisions will be next year?
 
#25
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paul1454 said:
Okay, thanks. That's what I was going to look for. I wanted to see where we were finding increased savings or revenues, other than the TARP repayments. Guess there isn't anything else.
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As I understand it, its TARP being paid back and value of remaining stock pledged/required for the loans.

And I agree with droski, as I always have on this issue, that Bush deserved credit for believing the advisors who came to him and said we were hours, maybe days, from a complete meltdown and that the federal government had to give assurances that it would be the financial rock for these companies.

Obama likewise believed these claims and supported Bush's decision on it.

I think both deserve credit for getting past the momentary political problems created by the action and seeing the potential real crisis had there not been action taken.

I remain of the opinion that much of the cause of the problem in the first place was under-regulated trading and manipulation of the entire credit industry. I acknowledge that individual people went out and borrowed too much money for dubious investment purposes. Greed got the better of both the top business people and the little guys, too.
 
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