ESPN FPI Rankings???

#1
imavolfan

imavolfan

I bleed Orange
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#1
How are the FPI rankings decided? New rankings released and Bama moved up to #3 after their 2nd loss. This puts them higher than the team that beat them last night and has one loss. Also a close game to SC. A 1 loss Ohio State is the new #1 and the team that beat them? An undefeated Oregon who is ranked lower?? IMG_2101.pngBama should save some of their cash for NIL instead of paying off the media. 2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN
 
#4
#4
To me, if sounds like you're obsessing over "recency bias" and not understanding what FPI does. FPI, like a lot of quant ranking systems, looks at results on a play-by-play basis over the season and factors in things like home field advantage, SoS, etc.

Over the course of this season, Alabama has played better than us IMO.

Yesterday, Tennessee played better.

It makes sense that Bama is ranked ahead of us in FPI, Sagarin, and other quant ranking systems IMO. But if we play like we did in the 2nd half yesterday for the rest of the season (rather than like we did in the 1st half the past 3 weeks or at the end of the Arky game), we'll be a legit contender. That's what matters.

If we continue to play like we did yesterday, we'll improve in FPI, but FPI still has to factor in the stinker of a game we had in Arky, a dismal Florida game that we were lucky to escape with a "W", and the 1st half of the Bama game where we couldn't score to save our lives. Also, I think Bama's near-loss against South Carolina doesn't look so bad right now, as SC has been looking pretty good. Whereas, the Arkansas team we stunk it up against, got blown out by LSU.
 
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#5
#5
DiderotsGhost said:
To me, if sounds like you're obsessing over "recency bias" and not understanding what FPI does. FPI, like a lot of quant ranking systems, looks at results on a play-by-play basis over the season and factors in things like home field advantage, SoS, etc.

Over the course of this season, Alabama has played better than us IMO.

Yesterday, Tennessee played better.

It makes sense that Bama is ranked ahead of us in FPI, Sagarin, and other quant ranking systems IMO. But if we play like we did in the 2nd half yesterday for the rest of the season (rather than like we did in the 1st half the past 3 weeks or at the end of the Arky game), we'll be a legit contender. That's what matters.

If we continue to play like we did yesterday, we'll improve in FPI, but FPI still has to factor in the stinker of a game we had in Arky, a dismal Florida game that we were lucky to escape with a "W", and the 1st half of the Bama game where we couldn't score to save our lives. Also, I think Bama's near-loss against South Carolina doesn't look so bad right now, as SC has been looking pretty good. Whereas, the Arkansas team we stunk it up against, got blown out by LSU.
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How does it weight that Ole Miss beat the crap out of terrible teams and then struggled against good one? I figure how they destroyed bad teams is the only way they’d be over us right now. If we flipped schedules no way we have 2 losses and they’d have at least 2 with our schedules. Does this metric treat all teams with the same record equally? Is a 6-1 Syracuse the same as 6-1 UGA?
 
#6
#6
hUTch2002 said:
How does it weight that Ole Miss beat the crap out of terrible teams and then struggled against good one? I figure how they destroyed bad teams is the only way they’d be over us right now. If we flipped schedules no way we have 2 losses and they’d have at least 2 with our schedules. Does this metric treat all teams with the same record equally? Is a 6-1 Syracuse the same as 6-1 UGA?
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I’m not sure anyone is going to be able to explain an algorithm in way that you can comprehend.
 
#8
#8
imavolfan said:
How are the FPI rankings decided? New rankings released and Bama moved up to #3 after their 2nd loss. This puts them higher than the team that beat them last night and has one loss. Also a close game to SC. A 1 loss Ohio State is the new #1 and the team that beat them? An undefeated Oregon who is ranked lower?? View attachment 689288Bama should save some of their cash for NIL instead of paying off the media. 2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN
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FPI is a predictive model that is meant to predict outcomes of games, not rank teams based on their results. That said, not sure that this model is especially helpful or accurate.
 
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