Experts (Democrats too) see double-digit Dem losses in 2010

[SavageOrangeJug]

After an August recess marked by raucous town halls, troubling polling data and widespread anecdotal evidence of a volatile electorate, the small universe of political analysts who closely follow House races is predicting moderate to heavy Democratic losses in 2010.

Some of the most prominent and respected handicappers can now envision an election in which Democrats suffer double-digit losses in the House — not enough to provide the 40 seats necessary to return the GOP to power but enough to put them within striking distance.

Top political analyst Charlie Cook, in a special August 20 update to subscribers, wrote that “the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and congressional Democrats.”

"Many veteran congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats,” he wrote.

At the mid-August Netroots Nation convention, Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website FiveThirtyEight.com* a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House.

“A lot of Democratic freshmen and sophomores will be running in a much tougher environment than in 2006 and 2008 and some will adapt to it, but a lot of others will inevitably freak out and end up losing,” Silver told POLITICO. “Complacency is another factor: We have volunteers who worked really hard in 2006 and in 2008 for Obama but it’s less compelling [for them] to preserve the majority.”

The rest of the article: POLITICO

*FiveThirtyEight.com

 

[VolsSportsFan]

Right now yes....but we'll see if voters remember all this come 2010.

 

[Voodoomonkey]

Between 20-50? Isn't going out on too much of a limb there. It wouldn't be a bad thing though, IMO.

 

[rjd970]

I think it will depend primarily upon the economy. If it is booming, the dems don't lose near as much as this article predicts...whether or not they are really responsible for the turnaround.

The GOP desperately needs to get back to its platform of smaller government and fiscal responsibility. The opposition to UHC is a step in the right direction but I wonder if people question them as doing it for legitimate reasons or purely for a political victory.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

I think it will depend primarily upon the economy. If it is booming, the dems don't lose near as much as this article predicts...whether or not they are really responsible for the turnaround.

The GOP desperately needs to get back to its platform of smaller government and fiscal responsibility. The opposition to UHC is a step in the right direction but I wonder if people question them as doing it for legitimate reasons or purely for a political victory.

This.

I'm not naive enough to believe they aren't doing it for political victories.

 

[MG1968]

the only "booming" the economy will be doing will be a sound similar to that of a ship sinking into the depths and imploding.

 

[BigPapaVol]

This.

I'm not naive enough to believe they aren't doing it for political victories.

That's crazy. They're opposing UHC because it's a pending disaster.
Posted via VolNation Mobile

 

[T-TownVol]

The "political victory" is a Dem talking point.

 

[rjd970]

That's crazy. They're opposing UHC because it's a pending disaster.
Posted via VolNation Mobile

You think everyone at these townhalls realize that? You have old people saying things that make no sense like "keep your hands off my medicare".

 

[BigPapaVol]

You think everyone at these townhalls realize that? You have old people saying things that make no sense like "keep your hands off my medicare".

no. I think the politicians who have worked hardest to kill it realize that.

 

[rjd970]

no. I think the politicians who have worked hardest to kill it realize that.

Even the "gang of six" who have publicly stated they are there to kill it, no matter what it looks like? Healthcare needs changes, but there are some that want to kill it simply because it is a dem initiative. Going by what these guys have said they would kill it even if it was a total free market solution, simply because it was introduced and supported by the dems.

And the gun carrying, shouting, and other theatrics doesn't help matters.

 

[Oldvol75]

As someone who upon arriaval of his 50th birthday, got a letter from AARP wanting me to become a member. Talk about hitting you like a ton of bricks, but I rejected. Medicade has been a disaster. My mother has medicade and a United Health Care supplement, with this her bills are paid. They would not with out the supplement. My dad passed away in Feb. 2008. I have no brothers or sisters. My mom had a stroke 12 years ago. She has broken her hip and has had 4 operations on it. She draws a small SS check($1420). She lives near me in a small housing authority apt. (She doen't not want to live with us) Yes these older Americans are in fact worried about the medicade services they recieve. The majority of these people have worked their entire lives and help to build this country. Without these folks we would not be in a position that we are today, what they layed as a foundation for the things that we have now. I have no problem with these Americans recieving these benefits, IMO they deserve it.

BUT, these people that have never worked, not because they couldn't but because they didn't want too, do not deserve anything. I firmly believe that if a man doesn't work, a man doesn't eat. That we are to care for our widows and orphans, not the government.

There are ways to work a healthcare plan for all Americans, one that everyone could afford, not have it handed to them just because they don't want to work and want everything handed to them.