Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are proof America can be harmed non-militarily, Asia need

#1

OrangeEmpire

The White Debonair
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#1
Foreign investments in Fannie/Freddie

China is largest holder of the debt in Asia

China does not have to engage us militarily to weaken us at this point. They can hurt us by selling U.S. bonds and other investments on the open market. If I recall correctly, China is the single most largest holder of U.S. debt. Think of what would happen to the dollar globally, and our financial credibility in the global market, if China began selling its dollars and U.S. debt on the market? Our dollar would fall rapidly, the economy would begin to decline, foreign investors seek refuge elsewhere and begin withdrawing their investments in U.S. markets, exacerbating the economic decline.

The notion of an open and free market has assisted us but when our companies and government spend beyond its means, and sell its debt to foreign banks and companies, in large quantities, we make ourselves vulnerable. The U.S. might be a superpower militarily but this is current situation is exemplary in the sense of demonstrating how there is more than one way to address a military superpower other than slugging it out with them in battle.

Think about the potential implications of the present situation. If China or other Asian banks disapprove of what we are doing internationally, can they not threaten to harm us economically unless we conform our behavior to their dictates? For example, China is adamantly opposed to any U.S. military strike in Iran. What position are we in to ignore China's warning they will immediately sell U.S debt and assets on the market if we were to attack Iran?

Now, there is some give and take here. At this time, under the present arrangement, the world economy is so interdependent right now, along with the fact a lot of foreign economies are predicated upon U.S. consumption of their goods, that if the U.S. economy sinks, so does the rest of the world. This fact may preclude China and other Asian banks from doing what they threaten, unless the calculate the harm perpetuated upon themselves by their own actions will not be as great as what is inflicted upon the U.S.

We may control the military, but China controls our purse. Tell me, how far do you get when the purse is closed?


Thoughts?
 
#2
#2
What does selling our debt on the open market do to us? Similarly, our dollars are on the open market today and the market clearing price rules.

This scenario isn't as simple as some rogue Chinese leader making an arbitrary decision to destroy our economy. They would absolutely murder themselves in the process of destroying the value of our dollar, because they're selling their goods to us and taking dollars for them. The fewer dollars they get, the worse it is for them. The cheap dollar hurts all nations who are net exporters to the US. It helps us. The weak dollar devalues our assets in the eyes of international investors, but doesn't remotely change the intrinsic value of assets. It's the reason that you see global money flowing very quickly to distressed US real estate assets. Dollar's cheap, buying in foreign money lowers price, yet doesn't decrease long term property value.

If the Chinese dump a bunch of our CDOs at below market rates, people will buy them and make an outsized return for the risk, until the market stabilizes the price at the proper equilibrium again. Just isn't particularly realistic.

Intertwined economies pose risks to everyone playing in the global economy, but those equally shared risks simultaneously provide protection to the participants. Sort of a mutually assured destruction type of scenario.

The real risk of letting international players help finance our appetite is the liquidity crisis that we're seeing today.
 

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