Florida game parallel

#1
volinSmyrna

volinSmyrna

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#1
Does anybody else see the parallel between this year's Florida game and the 95 Bama game. We were riding a 9 game losing streak (I know 93 was a tie, but it felt like a loss), and we came out and exorcised the demons that day. I think that win was what sent us on the trajectory we took into the late 90's.

I think a win this Saturday could provide the momentum and be the springboard this program has needed for a long time. Hopefully after the game Saturday we will all be saying....

i-have-exercised-the-demons-o.gif
 
#2
#2
volinSmyrna said:
Does anybody else see the parallel between this year's Florida game and the 95 Bama game. We were riding a 9 game losing streak (I know 93 was a tie, but it felt like a loss), and we came out and exorcised the demons that day. I think that win was what sent us on the trajectory we took into the late 90's.

I think a win this Saturday could provide the momentum and be the springboard this program has needed for a long time. Hopefully after the game Saturday we will all be saying....

i-have-exercised-the-demons-o.gif
Click to expand...

Yes. I did see this. Would be amazing to have a similar result (kill them). Main difference is that the 1995 game against Bama was at their place.

If we score on play number 1 then we will know its a repeat!
 
#4
#4
I'm not a Vol football historian, but just looking at it from afar, I would say it would be closer to beating Alabama in 1982.
 
#7
#7
I think Neyland will only truly explode when the clock hits 0:00 with Tennessee on top. We know the history of this matchup and how its not over til its over.
 
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#8
#8
Since Tennessee is something 0-10 in the last 10 games for winning the toss, what is the likelihood that Tennessee would win the toss (good mathematical probability) and would elect to receive the ball instead of deferring to the second half? Making that call and scoring on that drive would send the team and the crowd into a frenzy not seen in a long time. Of course, the "Third Downs for What?" will be rocking. Had two games to practice the loudness, now it's time for getting down to business.

Know your color section in advance. Mine is orange.
 
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#9
#9
what is the likelihood that Tennessee would win the toss (good mathematical probability)


The probability when flipping a fair coin is always 50/50. However, according to the law of large numbers we should win one one of these days
 
#10
#10
Well, in order for TN to get the ball first, we'd need to lose the toss, unless it was our choice. Either way, if we want the ball first, most likely we get it.
 
#11
#11
Volbackhomefromtx said:
Since Tennessee is something 0-10 in the last 10 games for winning the toss, what is the likelihood that Tennessee would win the toss (good mathematical probability) and would elect to receive the ball instead of deferring to the second half? Making that call and scoring on that drive would send the team and the crowd into a frenzy not seen in a long time. Of course, the "Third Downs for What?" will be rocking. Had two games to practice the loudness, now it's time for getting down to business.

Know your color section in advance. Mine is orange.
Click to expand...

not to be a math jerk, but its the same we have the same probability as losing the toss as winning. 50/50.

That said, i think we win the toss and win the game because its destiny. :)
 
#13
#13
The only win that will come close to the 82 bama game will be the next time we beat bama
 
#14
#14
Volbackhomefromtx said:
Since Tennessee is something 0-10 in the last 10 games for winning the toss, what is the likelihood that Tennessee would win the toss (good mathematical probability) and would elect to receive the ball instead of deferring to the second half? Making that call and scoring on that drive would send the team and the crowd into a frenzy not seen in a long time. Of course, the "Third Downs for What?" will be rocking. Had two games to practice the loudness, now it's time for getting down to business.

Know your color section in advance. Mine is orange.
Click to expand...

The probability of winning the toss is and always will be 50/50. Unless the coin is somehow loaded, previous flips, or a seemingly improbable string of them, are independent of each other and the current flip.
 
#16
#16
daj2576 said:
The probability of winning the toss is and always will be 50/50. Unless the coin is somehow loaded, previous flips, or a seemingly improbable string of them, are independent of each other and the current flip.
Click to expand...

If you're going to gripe over details, then you should know that the probability of a 50/50 coin is zero.
 
#17
#17
daj2576 said:
The probability of winning the toss is and always will be 50/50. Unless the coin is somehow loaded, previous flips, or a seemingly improbable string of them, are independent of each other and the current flip.
Click to expand...

More details… given team A has lost a coin toss 10 consecutive times, the probability they will lose the eleventh coin toss is not 50/50 or even close to 50/50.
 
#18
#18
DownTheField said:
More details… given team A has lost a coin toss 10 consecutive times, the probability they will lose the eleventh coin toss is not 50/50 or even close to 50/50.
Click to expand...

The probability on losing a coin toss 11 times in a row is 1/2048. So we are due.

I personally would rather fla get the ball first. The crowd will be loud, Driskell will be nervous with a lot of pressure on his shoulders, etc. A three and out would just get everyone more amped up, and our young players would settle into the game with a little more ease on offense. But if we let them take the ball and they march down the field and get a td, there will be a lot of nervous bodies in neyland. It's still the best strategy and worth the risk, IMO.
 
#19
#19
DownTheField said:
More details… given team A has lost a coin toss 10 consecutive times, the probability they will lose the eleventh coin toss is not 50/50 or even close to 50/50.
Click to expand...

You think these are dependent events, then?

In the book "Scorecasting" by Moskowitz and Wertheim, in the chapter entitled "Myth of the Hot Hand" the authors do a great job of trying to delineate these ideas.

"[M]any of us don't have a firm grasp of the laws of chance"

As an illustration the authors cite the specific example we are discussing. "If you get ten heads in a row, what is the likelihood that the next flip will be heads? Don't be fooled - it's 50 percent, the same as it is on any single coin flip. Most people think the chances of getting heads will actually be lower than 50 percent...they know they should see roughly the same number of heads as tails (50/50) so they feel that if they've seen ten heads in a row, they're due for a tails. A tail has to emerge to balance things out. But it doesn't. There is no law of averages. If the process is random, there is no predictability. This is also what drives the 'gambler's fallacy." Gamblers on losing streaks erroneously believe they're due and keep gambling, thinking their luck has to balance out. But if the whole thing is random, you aren't due for anything. Your chances haven't changed at all."
 
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#20
#20
roddo518 said:
The probability on losing a coin toss 11 times in a row is 1/2048. So we are due.

I personally would rather fla get the ball first. The crowd will be loud, Driskell will be nervous with a lot of pressure on his shoulders, etc. A three and out would just get everyone more amped up, and our young players would settle into the game with a little more ease on offense. But if we let them take the ball and they march down the field and get a td, there will be a lot of nervous bodies in neyland. It's still the best strategy and worth the risk, IMO.
Click to expand...

See above.
 
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#21
#21
99gator said:
I'm not a Vol football historian, but just looking at it from afar, I would say it would be closer to beating Alabama in 1982.
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I can see why you would say that but at the time Tennessee beat Alabama in 1982, the Tide was undefeated and ranked #2 in the nation and had just beaten #3 ranked Penn State 42-21 a week earlier, who would go on to win the National Championship. Tennessee had already lost to Duke and was plodding through another disappointing season...It really was a mind boggling upset that this obviously doesn't compare to...and Bear Bryant had a mystique about him that intimidated people - Muschamp has no such respect. Beating Alabama in 1995 felt like a great and satisfying relief, beating them in 1982 felt like college football's version of The Miracle on Ice.
 
#22
#22
If Jalen pulls a Jay Graham then I certainly wouldn't be disappointed that run was a thing of beauty. 19 years later I still remember it like it was yesterday. Watching it on tv while John Ward called and give him 6
 
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#23
#23
BowlBrother85 said:
I can see why you would say that but at the time Tennessee beat Alabama in 1982, the Tide was undefeated and ranked #2 in the nation and had just beaten #3 ranked Penn State 42-21 a week earlier, who would go on to win the National Championship. Tennessee had already lost to Duke and was plodding through another disappointing season...It really was a mind boggling upset that this obviously doesn't compare to...and Bear Bryant had a mystique about him that intimidated people - Muschamp has no such respect. Beating Alabama in 1995 felt like a great and satisfying relief, beating them in 1982 felt like college football's version of The Miracle on Ice.
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Correct on all counts. Conversely, we had Peyton at quarterback with enough experience under his belt to take full advantage of opportunities as they availed themselves in the '95 Alabama game. Peyton also had a far better overall supporting cast than Justin Worley currently has. In making that statement, I am referring to talent, depth and experience in the trenches on both sides of the ball as well as the skilled positions. Nevertheless, the '95 victory clearly evoked an extraordinary sigh of relief from the Big Orange Nation just as a win Saturday over Florida, regardless of the circumstances, would accomplish. I could foresee a scenario in which we thump Florida pretty good, but it will require keeping Justin upright, scoring early, preferably with some big momentum-seizing "splash" play, playing with the same kind of sustained effort we showed against Oklahoma and Georgia, and winning the turnover battle.
 
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