Football Outsiders Preseason top 25

#1
PowerT83

PowerT83

Somewhat sober
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Aug 27, 2007
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#1
These guys go in depth, and I think they are the best in the business. They got them boys from Knoxville coming in 20th.

here is what they said about the Big Orange.

No. 20 Tennessee Volunteers
2009 Record (Conference): 7-6 (4-4 SEC)
2009 Ranks: 23rd F/+ | 37th FEI | 14th S&P+
2009 Offensive Ranks: 22nd F/+ | 32nd FEI | 14th S&P+
2009 Defensive Ranks: 25th F/+ | 25th FEI | 27th S&P+
Proj. 2010 Offensive F/+ Rank: 24th
Proj. 2010 Defensive F/+ Rank: 22nd
Top 25 Opponents: 7 (4 home, 3 away)
Two Signs for Optimism
1. The talent is there. Tennessee ranks 14th in five-year recruiting, and there are plenty of recent blue-chippers dotting the roster, whether or not former five-star running back Bryce Brown plays for the Vols this season. Units like quarterback, wide receiver, defensive line and secondary are in good hands, at least from a "recruiting talent" perspective.
2. Success breeds success. Even with their mini-collapse in 2008, Tennessee's long-term metrics are still stout. They rank 20th in Program F/+, and they took demonstrable steps forward last season. If new head coach Derek Dooley can push the right buttons, this could still be a successful team, even if the murderous schedule defines "success" simply as bowl eligibility.
Two Red Flags
1. The offensive line. Ask former Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford what happens when you are breaking in an almost entirely new starting offensive line. Solid skill position talent doesn't matter if your offensive line is a sieve. It cannot be overstated just how worrisome the green O-line is.
2. Turnover on the field and the sidelines. Tennessee ranked ninth in the country on Standard Downs S&P+ last season despite an only decent running game, suggesting that, among other things, the play calling was quite good. Can a new offensive staff do as well, especially with the aforementioned green line? And if the defense ranked 25th in F/+ with safety Eric Berry and defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, both of whom have since departed Knoxville, can they really expect to succeed at a similar level? And ... have you seen this schedule? This is an aggressive projection for Tennessee, based as much on long-term success as anything else. It might end up being a little too aggressive.


FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2010 College Football Preseason Top 25
 
#2
#2
ole miss and south carolina in the top-25? arkansas 18th? georgia 19th?

let me guess you think he's the best in the business because he consistantly ranks SEC teams way too high?
 
#3
#3
Nah, those teams have recruited really well. They factor a whole lot of different variables.

I assure you they are not SEC homers and neither am I.

The Projected F/+ has a foundation in both recent history and numerous transition factors. A team’s recent output (illustrated by the Program F/+ and weighted more toward later seasons), five-year recruiting success (using Rivals.com ratings for signees who actually enrolled at each school), and offensive and defensive fluctuation form the baseline data. We adjust that baseline with transition factors like returning offensive and defensive starters, talent lost to the NFL Draft, and disproportional success on passing downs. The result, Projected F/+, is a more accurate predictor of next-year success than any other data we have tested or used to date, with a remarkable 0.85 correlation between projected and actual wins.
 
#5
#5
They got 2 top 25 opponents, and a cupcake schedule they'll do better than most think.
 
#7
#7
top 25

22nd for Ole Miss

15th for USCe

We could finish 15 th in the nation in recruiting at Tennessee, and be 7th or 8th in the SEC.
 
#10
#10
Bonus Red Flag for USC
3. What are they playing for? The NCAA's sanctions against the Trojans were more harsh than anybody expected, including a two-year postseason ban. USC is used to playing for national title bids and Rose Bowl berths. Can they maintain focus with both of those goals off the table? USC is as talented as anybody, but will they play like a team, or will they all be simply attempting to improve their draft stock and get out of town? You never know how a team will respond to something like this. This obviously wasn't taken into account in the projections, but it is clearly a concern until they prove it is not.
 
#11
#11
I've studied Lindy's, Athlon, & Phil Steele's projections the past few years and they're all full of projections that have **** the bed.
 
#12
#12
If this UT team is anywhere near the top 25, that would only further prove the utter meaninglessness of preseason polls.
 
#13
#13
droski said:
ole miss and south carolina in the top-25? arkansas 18th? georgia 19th?

let me guess you think he's the best in the business because he consistantly ranks SEC teams way too high?
Click to expand...

Those guys are way out there in stuff they measure, but they usually are better as a whole than everybody else.

I'm not a huge fan of preseason stuff though.
 
#14
#14
justingroves said:
Those guys are way out there in stuff they measure, but they usually are better as a whole than everybody else.

I'm not a huge fan of preseason stuff though.
Click to expand...

These guys do an excellent job on statistical prognostication in the NFL. There are just a lot of variables in college that make it more difficult to predict.
 
#15
#15
Boise at 14? Tennessee at 20? Ole Miss at 25? Georgia in the top 25?

These rankings are a joke, I'm sorry.
 
#16
#16
They know more than you.

Your tune will change I bet if they have the Ducks in the top 5.

Your smoking quack if you think Georgia isn't a top 25 team.
 
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#17
#17
Preseason polls are just pipe dreams, nothing more and nothing less. Just something for avid football fans to read because the interest is there for the debating.
 
#18
#18
PowerT83 said:
They know more than you.

Your tune will change I bet if they have the Ducks in the top 5.

Your smoking quack if you think Georgia isn't a top 25 team.
Click to expand...

You're absolutely wrong. At this point, I know damn well we aren't a top 5 team.
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#19
#19
I think their breakdown about us was spot on. They define we are a long shot and could go south. We do have talent on this team though regardless of the coach you credit. Just not enough for the sec.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#20
#20
Do they factor into their rivals rankings averages how many of those 4 and 5 stars are still on the roster?
 
#21
#21
The writer did a good job of qualifying his predictions. That perspective allows for a lot of movement on what he saying.
 
#22
#22
droski said:
ole miss and south carolina in the top-25? arkansas 18th? georgia 19th?

let me guess you think he's the best in the business because he consistantly ranks SEC teams way too high?
Click to expand...

SC and ark could be good this year

what about tenn? they got a new coach from a small school but they made it


id say ark, & sc are actually in a better position then you guys
 
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