There was a short thread about this in 2013- cliodynamics- predicting the future with mathematics
I believe it has acquired more relevance as of late.
Peter Turchin: A pioneer of cliodynamics employs multiple disciplinary perspectives, ranging from mathematics and statistics to anthropology and complex systems theory, as well as vast troves of historical data to identify patterns of sociopolitical instability over the centuries. It is, in essence, an attempt to identify why states rise and fall and then use this knowledge to make predictions about the future
Will the US Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020? | Live Science
Mathematician predicted violent upheaval in 2020 all the way back in 2012 | Live Science
Very short summary of Turchin's position:
"...what creates the risk of political instability is the behavior of elites, who all too often react to long-term increases in population by committing three cardinal sins. First, faced with a surge of labor that dampens growth in wages and productivity, elites seek to take a larger portion of economic gains for themselves, driving up inequality. Second, facing greater competition for elite wealth and status, they tighten up the path to mobility to favor themselves and their progeny. For example, in an increasingly meritocratic society, elites could keep places at top universities limited and raise the entry requirements and costs in ways that favor the children of those who had already succeeded. Third, anxious to hold on to their rising fortunes, they do all they can to resist taxation of their wealth and profits, even if that means starving the government of needed revenues, leading to decaying infrastructure, declining public services and fast-rising government debts."
Intra-elite competition among elite aspirants:
"It is true that revolutions and protests, even those ostensibly about the working class or other downtrodden groups, have historically been a bourgeois thing — and 2020 is no different.
"The wider 'Great Awokening,' of which the 2020 disturbances are a part, is a very elite phenomenon, with progressive activists nearly twice as likely as the average American to make more than $100,000 a year, nearly three times as likely to have a postgraduate degree, and only one-quarter as likely to be black. "
--Forget about the Culture War --It's just a symptom
Further reading:
Press
Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade
Ages of Discord
Welcome To The ‘Turbulent Twenties’ - NOEMA
The real class war is within the rich by Janan Ganesh (Financial Times) -- (FOR LINK GO TO "PRESS" above)
George Floyd & Protests: More to Come? | National Review
Why the rich are revolting - UnHerd
Class War As Culture War | The American Conservative
The New Class War - American Affairs Journal
The New Class War Isn’t a Culture War
I believe it has acquired more relevance as of late.
Peter Turchin: A pioneer of cliodynamics employs multiple disciplinary perspectives, ranging from mathematics and statistics to anthropology and complex systems theory, as well as vast troves of historical data to identify patterns of sociopolitical instability over the centuries. It is, in essence, an attempt to identify why states rise and fall and then use this knowledge to make predictions about the future
Will the US Really Experience a Violent Upheaval in 2020? | Live Science
Mathematician predicted violent upheaval in 2020 all the way back in 2012 | Live Science
Very short summary of Turchin's position:
"...what creates the risk of political instability is the behavior of elites, who all too often react to long-term increases in population by committing three cardinal sins. First, faced with a surge of labor that dampens growth in wages and productivity, elites seek to take a larger portion of economic gains for themselves, driving up inequality. Second, facing greater competition for elite wealth and status, they tighten up the path to mobility to favor themselves and their progeny. For example, in an increasingly meritocratic society, elites could keep places at top universities limited and raise the entry requirements and costs in ways that favor the children of those who had already succeeded. Third, anxious to hold on to their rising fortunes, they do all they can to resist taxation of their wealth and profits, even if that means starving the government of needed revenues, leading to decaying infrastructure, declining public services and fast-rising government debts."
Intra-elite competition among elite aspirants:
"It is true that revolutions and protests, even those ostensibly about the working class or other downtrodden groups, have historically been a bourgeois thing — and 2020 is no different.
"The wider 'Great Awokening,' of which the 2020 disturbances are a part, is a very elite phenomenon, with progressive activists nearly twice as likely as the average American to make more than $100,000 a year, nearly three times as likely to have a postgraduate degree, and only one-quarter as likely to be black. "
--Forget about the Culture War --It's just a symptom
Further reading:
Press
Political instability may be a contributor in the coming decade
Ages of Discord
Welcome To The ‘Turbulent Twenties’ - NOEMA
The real class war is within the rich by Janan Ganesh (Financial Times) -- (FOR LINK GO TO "PRESS" above)
George Floyd & Protests: More to Come? | National Review
Why the rich are revolting - UnHerd
Class War As Culture War | The American Conservative
The New Class War - American Affairs Journal
The New Class War Isn’t a Culture War
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