Duke’s overall SOS is 52, which isn’t great. Non-conference SOS is solid at 23 and included Kentucky, Kansas, Auburn, Arizona, and Illinois. They’ve also been bludgeoning teams all season.
SOS is entirely based on metrics so it’s impossible for anyone to get a “pity boost.” There’s no human element involved.
The thing about SoS is where and when you look because its not a set number it changes literally day to day. There is also SoR which is the more accurate number for the present because it matches your current record with the SoS of the teams you have played.
As of this moment according to ESPN Dukes Sor is 4 and their current SOS is 33. IF you look at current SOR rankings (which is what I think a lot of people are putting out there as SoS in a most cases) there are 8 SEC teams i nthe top 25 with Ole Miss being 26th. Now as far as current SoS only 5 SEC teams are in top 25. Remaining SoS 10 SEC teams. I know a lot of numbers that seem to be unrelated and contradictory.
My theory is this. ACC got some preseason love and its taken time for the rubber hitting the road to come into play. The SEC was WAY better than people thought. Before conference play started the worst SEC record was 10-3. 83% of all SEC teams losses have come in conference play. Only 68% of ACC losses happened in conference play. What does this mean? 1 ACC teams took a lot more OOC losses. 2 The gap between the top ACC teams and the bottom is HUGE. 11/18 ACC teams have losing conference records (under .500). Only 7/16 SEc teams are under 500. The wins in the ACC are concentrated in less teams.
This puts Duke in a weird situation where they played a really good OOC schedule and dominated it. Then got to go on cruise control in their conference. Its not their fault their conference opponents underperformed but its put them in a position where they are the team to beat. Duke is 'well rested' and wont face any real challengers outside of themselves till the tourney. SEC teams are beat the F up playing each other. This does not mean Duke is a shoe-in but it gives them a huge advantage comparatively. In that same breath their roster is nuts. They have more talent* than any other top6 team and its not close.
Top 6 players (production)
Duke 4 freshmen a junior and a senior
Auburn 4 seniors and 2 freshmen
Florida 3 Seniors a freshman 2 sophs and a junior.
Bama 4 Seniors 1 soph 1 fresh
Houston 3 Seniors 2 Juniors and 1Soph
Tennessee 5 Seniors and a junior
Duke only has 2 upper classmen contributing, 3 if you go 8 deep. Of these top 6 teams outside of Duke no one has more than 2 freshman contributors and only Auburn has more than 1. Even throwing in Sophs no one goes over 3 underclassmen but Duke. Florida is the only school other than Duke with more than 2 underclassmen in the mix. The SEC has reached parity via portal (upperclassmen) Duke is still on the one and done train. I think that train is dying because other bluebloods like UNC, Kentucky and so on are not doing well there.
The big nasty takeaways.
We likely are not in final 4 contention. Our depth is too not depthy. We are too vulnerable to injuries. Fully healthy we probably have the best chance to make the final 4 on experience alone.
Duke, UT, Auburn and Bama are looking at all-or-nothing trips to the portal. They all lose 5-6 guys to graduation/draft. UT loses damn near the whole roster. Florida and Houston are likely to bring back some decent proven talent.
Basketball is not football. 2-3 guys on a football team can get you a couple games and get you over the hump. 2-3 in basketball is cutting down nets. No football player has EVER carried the load of a midpack Basketball Star and that's just a math thing. 5 guys on the court each guy has a bigger impact. In basketball you can have have 2-3 meh guys in your rotation and overcome that. In football 2-3 scrubs on either side and you're toast. Lawd help you if you have 2-3 on both sides.
*talent metric is simple if I'm 18 doing the same thing as you at 20 I'm more talented than you. If you're 22 and I'm doing 80% of what you are at 18, I'm more talented than you.
heading into March. They’re high in every category above and have three projected 1st round picks. I thought their strength of schedule would be relatively low with the ACC being garbage, but they currently rank 10th. Auburn, Bama, Tennessee, and Kentucky are 1-4 in SOS.
