Here's my breakdown
Jimmie Johnson-Like I said, I won't count him out until the math doesn't add up.
Kevin Harvick-Has been the most consistent of anyone, but can he win in the chase? New Hampshire and Phoenix are his 2 best options.
Jeff Gordon- I can easily see him going off and winning 3 races in the chase and giving himself a chance entering Homestead.
Tony Stewart-He's starting to get hot. He's a multiple champ. Don't sleep on him.
Denny Hamlin-He's really struggled since dominating Michigan 2 months ago. Is it R&D? Are they really slumping? They're plenty capable of getting hot for 10 races.
Kyle Busch-Will he be consistent enough? Can he take 8th place cars and bring them home in 8th? Will he get in over his head and damage it and finish 25th-30th? To win a championship he's going to have to salvage average days.
Carl Edwards-He's quietly placed himself in the championship race. Since Chicagoland he's made his move and is flying under the radar. Can he win races to keep him alive?
Jeff Burton-Similar to his teammate Harvick, except his luck hasn't been as good. Same as a lot of others. He needs to finish races off and break into victory lane.
Kurt Busch-Has ran really well and is a threat on the 1.5-2 mile tracks. He's had some bad luck mostly not of his own doing.
Greg Biffle-He and Irwin have really found something over the past month. Much like his teammate Edwards, he's peaking at the right time.
Matt Kenseth-Wasted spot. His performance has been garbage since April.
Clint Bowyer-Has ran competitively, but not enough to be in the top half of the points after 10 races. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in shouting distance after the first couple of races, though.