Growing Trend of Midseason Redshirting Has Caused a Divide in College Football

[LouderVol]

The biggest problems with college football are problems that have always existed. It's not a level playing field and it never will be unless the NCAA does things they aren't willing to do. 40 games each week and you only end up with about 1-3 games that are both interesting and close. Out of 20 total playoff teams in 5 years, there have only been 10 different schools to make it. 4 of the current top 5 teams have been to the playoff multiple times. Amateurism is supposed to level the playing field but it does the opposite of that.

Put all the big $ teams in their own division, let them pay players, and watch as the playing field levels. Bama's 3rd string has more talent than our 1st string and there is no way that happens if we can put our $ on the table against theirs.

NFL hasn't been that much more diverse of a playoff group.

the Pats have been one of the final four teams all 5 years.
over that 5 year period 15 of the 32 teams made it to the final four. which sounds impressive except that half of the teams in the NFL make it to the playoffs every year. it gets even less impressive if you look back even further.

if you go back an additional five years you only add 3 more teams to that 15.

you would have to go back an additional 6 years beyond that to find the next (two) team that wasn't included in the previous 10. and I didn't go through all the teams but looking back further it looks pretty much the same. Tons of repeating Conference Championship Game teams.

for guaranteed level playing fields it doesn't look that diverse to me.

 

[n_huffhines]

NFL hasn't been that much more diverse of a playoff group.

the Pats have been one of the final four teams all 5 years. over that 5 year period 15 of the 32 teams made it to the final four. which sounds impressive except that half of the teams in the NFL make it to the playoffs every year. it gets even less impressive if you look back even further.

That's 50% more. That's a pretty significant difference. You're saying it's not that impressive because of the structure of the NFL, but my point is the structure of college is part of the problem. Also, not that it matters to my point, but 12 teams make the playoffs and there are 32 teams, so not half.

if you go back an additional five years you only add 3 more teams to that 15.

you would have to go back an additional 6 years beyond that to find the next (two) team that wasn't included in the previous 10. and I didn't go through all the teams but looking back further it looks pretty much the same. Tons of repeating Conference Championship Game teams.

for guaranteed level playing fields it doesn't look that diverse to me.

You're saying over half (18) of NFL teams have made a CCG in the last 10 years and then claiming that doesn't look diverse? That seems pretty freaking diverse.

In other words, nearly 1/2 of all NFL teams have made the final 4 in the last 5 years and 1/13 of FBS teams have. You don't see the difference in parity?

 

[LouderVol]

That's 50% more. That's a pretty significant difference. You're saying it's not that impressive because of the structure of the NFL, but my point is the structure of college is part of the problem. Also, not that it matters to my point, but 12 teams make the playoffs and there are 32 teams, so not half.



You're saying over half (18) of NFL teams have made a CCG in the last 10 years and then claiming that doesn't look diverse? That seems pretty freaking diverse.

In other words, nearly 1/2 of all NFL teams have made the final 4 in the last 5 years and 1/13 of FBS teams have. You don't see the difference in parity?

If you only want to look at a small timeslot, sure the NFL is much more diverse. But when you look at the full trend of that sport you realize that diversity is actually a repeating pattern. And therefore not diverse.

The FBS is at least 4 times larger than the NFL. But their playoff is 1/3 the size. So when you do the math it's not far off the parity of the NFL. 1/4 x 1/3 =1/12 to your 1/13.

And that is with the NFL supposedly designed for parity and the college game not at all designed for parity. To me when you look at all the information, instead of focusing on just one data point, the levels are eerily.similar.

Which makes sense because the NFL takes the best players from college. The best players are typically on the best teams in college. And those best teams are usually in the college playoffs.

 

[05_never_again]

NFL hasn't been that much more diverse of a playoff group.

the Pats have been one of the final four teams all 5 years.
over that 5 year period 15 of the 32 teams made it to the final four. which sounds impressive except that half of the teams in the NFL make it to the playoffs every year. it gets even less impressive if you look back even further.

if you go back an additional five years you only add 3 more teams to that 15.

you would have to go back an additional 6 years beyond that to find the next (two) team that wasn't included in the previous 10. and I didn't go through all the teams but looking back further it looks pretty much the same. Tons of repeating Conference Championship Game teams.

for guaranteed level playing fields it doesn't look that diverse to me.

Of the four major sports, the NFL actually has the most diversity of different teams winning a championship. I saw a stat the other day talking about the English Premier League - since it formed in 1992, only 6 different teams have won the EPL. Over that same timeframe, 15 different NFL teams have won a Super Bowl.

College football is a lot more like the EPL than the NFL. It isn't designed for parity - I totally agree with you on that.

 

[n_huffhines]

If you only want to look at a small timeslot, sure the NFL is much more diverse. But when you look at the full trend of that sport you realize that diversity is actually a repeating pattern. And therefore not diverse.

That's because it's a smaller population size. There are only 32 teams so if you look at 40 data points, you'll necessarily see repetition. The Patriots are an outlier in NFL history and they take up 5 of those last 20 spots. If you look at the other 15 spots, you're seeing incredible diversity...14/15. Mfkn 14 out of 15. That's wild. Take out Bama and CFP is 9/15. Take out Clemson and it's 8/12. Take out OU and it's 7/9. You can't even achieve the same rate of parity by eliminating the top 3 most dominant teams.

Think of it like this... 15 NHL teams made the final 4 in the last 5 years. 10 NBA teams did. 13 for MLB. FBS had 10 with a strong possibility that it's still 10 after this year. NCAAM Final 4 had a whopping 17 and I think almost everybody has the perception that NCAAM has the most parity. NFL's right behind them and FBS is as bad as the NBA, which is known for lack of parity.

The FBS is at least 4 times larger than the NFL. But their playoff is 1/3 the size. So when you do the math it's not far off the parity of the NFL. 1/4 x 1/3 =1/12 to your 1/13.

Why does this matter? Why would you calculate based off how many teams make the playoff and not how many are in the league? We're concerned about leaguewide parity, not parity among the successful teams.

To me when you look at all the information, instead of focusing on just one data point, the levels are eerily.similar.

Not even close.

 

[hog88]

Only the P5 schools need to worry about parity, if the playoffs continue the trend of only 5-6 different teams getting there they will die for lack of interest.

I'd like to see the P5 break off from the NCAA or at least have more autonomy when it comes to football. Set it up so that P5 schools only play P5 schools, let them pay the players (call it a stipend or whatever), increase the yearly signing limit to 35 and permit immediate eligibility for transfers if they are going out of the P5.

Also have harsh and immediate penalties for breaking the rules, strip championships, schools must forfeit TV and bowl revenue for season(s) the infractions incurred and coaches get a show cause.

 

[n_huffhines]

Only the P5 schools need to worry about parity, if the playoffs continue the trend of only 5-6 different teams getting there they will die for lack of interest.

I'd like to see the P5 break off from the NCAA or at least have more autonomy when it comes to football. Set it up so that P5 schools only play P5 schools, let them pay the players (call it a stipend or whatever), increase the yearly signing limit to 35 and permit immediate eligibility for transfers if they are going out of the P5.

Also have harsh and immediate penalties for breaking the rules, strip championships, schools must forfeit TV and bowl revenue for season(s) the infractions incurred and coaches get a show cause.

I like everything except for the increased policing. The NCAA is corrupt. Big money schools get away with more and that seems like it's impossible to fix. Like the war on drugs, it's time to give up a losing battle.

 

[hog88]

I like everything except for the increased policing. The NCAA is corrupt. Big money schools get away with more and that seems like it's impossible to fix. Like the war on drugs, it's time to give up a losing battle.

If they aren't policed then all recruiting and compensation rules need to be scrapped. I'm of the opinion that you relax the rules but the ones you keep enforce them strictly and harshly.

 

[LouderVol]

That's because it's a smaller population size. There are only 32 teams so if you look at 40 data points, you'll necessarily see repetition. The Patriots are an outlier in NFL history and they take up 5 of those last 20 spots. If you look at the other 15 spots, you're seeing incredible diversity...14/15. Mfkn 14 out of 15. That's wild. Take out Bama and CFP is 9/15. Take out Clemson and it's 8/12. Take out OU and it's 7/9. You can't even achieve the same rate of parity by eliminating the top 3 most dominant teams.

Think of it like this... 15 NHL teams made the final 4 in the last 5 years. 10 NBA teams did. 13 for MLB. FBS had 10 with a strong possibility that it's still 10 after this year. NCAAM Final 4 had a whopping 17 and I think almost everybody has the perception that NCAAM has the most parity. NFL's right behind them and FBS is as bad as the NBA, which is known for lack of parity.



Why does this matter? Why would you calculate based off how many teams make the playoff and not how many are in the league? We're concerned about leaguewide parity, not parity among the successful teams.



Not even close.

You are looking at 5 years over 128 teams. There is literally no way to achieve the NFL level of parity in that time frame. Even if it was a different team every game that's still less than 1/6th, the NFL being smaller is going to have a bigger fraction of their total no matter what college does over the same time frame. Which is why I was doing math so you can look at better comparisons.

 

[LSU-SIU]

If they aren't policed then all recruiting and compensation rules need to be scrapped. I'm of the opinion that you relax the rules but the ones you keep enforce them strictly and harshly.

What rules are you referring to than?

My take is, under existing law, the NCAA/schools could possibly be able to setup limited transfer rules within the season and eligibility requires as long as they are fairly basic. (idk, just guessing as to how the courts could view it) The compensation/recruiting rules will be going up in smoke either way.

Right now, they should be preparing for the retreat.

 

[n_huffhines]

If they aren't policed then all recruiting and compensation rules need to be scrapped. I'm of the opinion that you relax the rules but the ones you keep enforce them strictly and harshly.

That's what I'm saying.

 

[n_huffhines]

You are looking at 5 years over 128 teams. There is literally no way to achieve the NFL level of parity in that time frame. Even if it was a different team every game that's still less than 1/6th, the NFL being smaller is going to have a bigger fraction of their total no matter what college does over the same time frame. Which is why I was doing math so you can look at better comparisons.

Right, which is why I expressed the disparity in two different ways, as a %, and in absolute terms. 15 > 10 by a margin of 50% in absolute terms, then you factor in the FBS has a larger population to gives that disparity more damning context.

 

[hog88]

That's what I'm saying.

Even the NFL has rules. With zero rules there will be less parity than we have now.

 

[n_huffhines]

Even the NFL has rules. With zero rules there will be less parity than we have now.

Well, I wasn't literally meaning no rules at all. I meant scrap the amateurism and recruiting rules.

 

[hog88]

Well, I wasn't literally meaning no rules at all. I meant scrap the amateurism and recruiting rules.

There has to some rules on how many you can take per class and how much can be paid, whether it be team total or individual.

 

[n_huffhines]

There has to some rules on how many you can take per class and how much can be paid, whether it be team total or individual.

You could probably cover that with a salary cap, but I agree with your sentiment