Because some people have been randomly asking, here are the only 2 scenarios that could result in UT being in the SECCG

[adam.vol]

I will skip Atlanta and play to win in the playoffs

If we win in Atlanta, we get extra time to rest with a bye and our first game is a neutral site game. If we don’t win in Atlanta, our first game could easily be a road game at OSU/Oregon, Alabama/Texas, Georgia, or Penn State.

I’d prefer to see us get the bye, as it’s safer than an away game.

 

[LegionnaireOfTheMiserable]

WE DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ATLANTA!!!!!

I mean we would have loved for that scenario to play out. But since it was about as likely as going to Atlanta and beating the Falcons, I’ll take the Ole Miss loss.

 

[Adam Sandler]

And it’s a very far stretch to begin with:

Scenario 1: - THIS SCENARIO IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE WITH THE FLORIDA UPSET OF OLE MISS. - This requires a 4-team tie with Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, and TN all at 2-conference losses

That would require:

4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas
4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
Texas beating A&M
5-5 Oklahoma or 4-6 Auburn beating Alabama
Ole Miss beating BOTH Florida AND Miss State
And Tennessee beating Vanderbilt

The team would be the second spot participant in the conference championship (as a 4-way tie would be created between Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss at 6-2, with the tiebreaker being based on the record vs common conference opponents Kentucky, Florida, and Mississippi State, with Georgia and Tennessee both being (3-0) against them while Ole Miss and Texas would now be (2-1), (having each lost to Kentucky in that scenario). Georgia's head-to-head victory over Tennessee would put Georgia in the top spot of the conference championship and Tennessee in the second spot. The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.


Scenario 2: This involves just every single conference game over the next two weeks.

It would require:

4-6 Auburn beating 9-2 A&M
5-5 Florida beating 8-2 Ole Miss
6-4 Vanderbilt beating 6-4 LSU
2-8 Mississippi State beating 7-3 Missouri
5-5 Oklahoma beating 8-2 Alabama
4-6 Kentucky beating 9-1 Texas

Followed by:
3-8 Mississippi State beating 8-3 Ole Miss
8-3 Alabama beating 5-6 Auburn
6-5 Oklahoma beatinf 6-5 LSU
6-5 Arkansas beating 7-4 Missouri
8-3 Texas A&M beating 9-2 Texas
And 9-2 Tennessee beating 7-4 Vanderbilt

This absolute storm would result in a three-team tie between Georgia, Texas A&M, and Tennessee for the spots in the SEC Championship Game. As the only common opponents the three share are Florida and Mississippi State (both of whom each team beat), it would go to conference opponent strength of schedules. Thanks to this exact series of results, Georgia's and Tennessee's conference opponent strength of schedules would actually shoot up to 0.4688 on the year whereas A&M's would now sit at 0.4375.

This would eliminate A&M, with Georgia's head-to-head victory over Tennessee would once again put Georgia in the top spot of the conference championship and Tennessee in the second spot.The result would be them playing Georgia (again)...In Atlanta, GA.

 

[TrueOrange]

WE DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ATLANTA!!!!!

And if we get beat then we are out of the playoffs......play the long game, not the short term instant gratification one

Honestly, no, not really. If those detailed upsets happened, Tennessee would move up enough in the rankings that it would more than balance out the limited, average 1-2 spaces the CFP committee has shown in the past to drop the losers of the conference championship games….ie, Tennessee would already be, rankings-wise, at a high enough position that they’d still make the playoffs regardless of the extra 13th game’s outcome.

 

[TrueOrange]

Do you remember we had to get help to get in that NC game? Regardless of winning the SEC

No, we didn’t. At all. People were scared the last weekend because it was a new system and they didn’t exactly understand what the computer rankings, the expanded Strength of Schedule, and Quality of Win component aspects did.

(1) By the last two weeks before the SEC Championship Game, Tennessee was so far ahead of UCLA that regardless of what happened in the Miami game in the final week, they weren’t going to be able to make up enough ground to jump Tennessee’s BCS rankings score.

(2) Likewise, Florida State was so far behind everyone (even with only 1 loss) that the only chances required both a combination of at least two teams (which happened with UCLA and Kansas State) and that even just would put them in the 2 spot at best.

(3) Finally, Kansas State’s chances to potentially jump Tennessee were entirely dependent on their Strength of Schedule and who the played in the Big 12 Championship Game component, but it took a massive hit the week before the Big 12 Championship Game (when Texas upset previously 10-1 Texas A&M), dropping their opponent out of the top 5, but more importantly their SOS component - which already was poor compared to Tennessee’s - dramatically dropped. But even with all that information- and presuming that A&M had upset Texas and then Kansas State upset a #5 A&M, the discrepancy in the scores was enough for them to have the opportunity to catch up to and jump UCLA, but it wasn’t nearly enough to make up the gap it had with Tennessee.

The only help Tennessee really got was probably Arkansas’s offensive lineman stepping on his QB’s foot in the 4th quarter and causing him drop/fumble the ball onto the ground. (Perhaps also a defensive pass interference on 4th down vs Syracuse…and debatably Florida’s kicker shanking a FG in overtime)

 

[TrueOrange]

So you would go for it?

P.S. - winning the SEC doesn't guarantee you a first round bye, right now Boise gets it over BYU.

Tennessee wouldn’t be stuck behind Boise State, though, if they won the SEC Championship.

 

[TrueOrange]

If the runner up of the SEC CG gets in just because they are the runner up, the you open the door to the runner up from all the other 3 main conferences having a case to get in.

Except the possibility of getting in isn’t based on just being the conference runner up, it’s relative to and based based on how high in the rankings teams are prior to the conference championship game (given that, the past 10 years, CFP committee appears to drop the conference championship game losing teams only on average 1-2 spots, 3 spots if it’s an utter, decimating, humiliating blowout).

And looking around at the moment: the Big 12 teams aren’t in positions rankings wise for that to happen with the conference game losers (with BYU and Colorado currently sitting at 14th and 16th respectively).

The Big 10 Conference Championship Game loser was probably getting in regardless, given they’re sitting at the 1 and 2 overall rankings spots.

And in the ACC, SMU’s not in a good enough position given they’re currently down at 13th and need multiple 1-loss or 2-loss teams above them to get upset for even a chance at being in the position we’re discussing as at the moment (having the possibility of making it in as a loser of the conference championship game). Miami’s the only non-SEC team that maybe has a chance at such…but given how much the committee dropped them for the close loss to 7-4 Georgia Tech (meaning they’re super high on Miami’s résumé and strength of schedule this year) they’d need help to move to up a spot or so higher to appropriately be able to weather the drop from losing the ACC Championship Game enough to still be in position for the playoffs (rather than just falling to the position of the first team out of it).

 

[Golfprovol]

If we win in Atlanta, we get extra time to rest with a bye and our first game is a neutral site game. If we don’t win in Atlanta, our first game could easily be a road game at OSU/Oregon, Alabama/Texas, Georgia, or Penn State.

I’d prefer to see us get the bye, as it’s safer than an away game.

It is the same, if we don't play in Atlanta we get an extra week to rest. If you go to Atlanta and lose, YOU ARE OUT WITH 3 LOSES

 

[Golfprovol]

Tennessee wouldn’t be stuck behind Boise State, though, if they won the SEC Championship.

We would be in the citrus bowl if you lose in Atlanta,

 

[SockeyeVol]

How sad would it be if UGA misses the CFP for the 2nd year in a row because they lose the SECCG? Very sad.

 

[TrueOrange]

How sad would it be if UGA misses the CFP for the 2nd year in a row because they lose the SECCG? Very sad.

Unless Oklahoma or Auburn beats Alabama, Georgia’s not going to be in it.

 

[TrueOrange]

We would be in the citrus bowl if you lose in Atlanta,

Probably not, given again, those scenarios would have required things like #3 Texas losing a second game to Kentucky and potentially a 3rd game to A&M, #7 Alabama losing a 3rd game to OU or Auburn, #9 Ole Miss losing (which did happen), which would mean Tennessee in turn would have moved up to around the #6 or #7 spot, possibly the #8 spot.

Again, based on the last 10 years of what we have seen, the CFP committee has recurringly shown a trend/tendency to drop the conference championship game loser, on average, 1-2 spots (they’ve shown they pretty much don’t punish the teams that have to play in the conference championship games as roughly as they do a normal rest-of-the-season loss, almost in realization of “hey, these teams had to play an extra, 13th game that most of the other teams did not”…in context, they’ve treated it as a 10-2 team that had to play an additional 13th game the others didn’t, not a team that lost 3 regular season games.)

Sitting at #6, #7, or #8 going into the conference championship game week, even at 10-3 Tennessee would easily be able to weather that average 1-2 spot post-conference-championship-game-loser drop that the committee’s shown over the over the last decade and still make the playoffs in the scenario.

 

[greenbacknative]

Remember it well.

I remember 1998, too.

Do you?

Remember Syracuse that year? Florida? Arkansas?

You don't plan to lose. You play to win.

Go Vols!

But have you seen our first half offense in the last 6 games?

 

[37620VOL]

If the runner up of the SEC CG gets in just because they are the runner up, the you open the door to the runner up from all the other 3 main conferences having a case to get in.

No sir. The loser of the seccg should not fall behind others in the same conference. Shouldn't affect anything but the pecking order within the conference. There is no blow back with other conferences.

 

[Ned Ray McWorkher]

In a 12 team playoff you won't be penalized for being good enough to make the SEC title game.