Heupel's offense has unlimited potential

#1
ConantheVolbarian

ConantheVolbarian

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#1
I watched a Dave Hooker video earlier where he argued we saw the ceiling of Heupel's offense last year when it averaged 46 points and led the nation in points per game. I thought that was such a bad take for many reasons. First off, imagine if this offense had an elite run threat at QB. Also just wait until we have an o-line that can stand toe to toe with Georgia in a few years. And what about the upgrades at the tight end position? They say Nico is a true duel threat QB and we are finally starting to land talented offensive linemen again. And the coaches and media are saying nothing but good things about the tight end personnel. When you add all of those things coming down the pipe together you have an offense that would even be a matchup nightmare for Georgia's defense. Oh yes, Dave Hooker. This offense can be scary good.
 
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#4
#4
Longsufferingvol said:
I watched a Dave Hooker video earlier where he argued we saw the ceiling of Heupel's offense last year when it averaged 46 points and led the nation in points per game. I thought that was such a bad take for many reasons. First off, imagine if this offense had an elite run threat at QB. Also just wait until we have an o-line that can stand toe to toe with Georgia in a few years. And what about the upgrades at the tight end position? They say Nico is a true duel threat QB and we are finally starting to land talented offensive linemen again. And the coaches and media are saying nothing but good things about the tight end personnel. When you add all of those things coming down the pipe together you have an offense that would even be a matchup nightmare for Georgia's defense. Oh yes, Dave Hooker. This offense can be scary good.
Click to expand...

Already as elite as it can be with regards to rank.

We had the #1 offense in 2022:

2022 College Football Team Offense | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

#9 passing offense: College Football Stats - College FB Team Passing Yards per Game | TeamRankings.com

#13 rushing: https://www.espn.com/college-football/stats/team/_/stat/rushing

Of course we could always improve, but the more you rush the less you pass.

I think the key to raising the ceiling on O is to stack defense with ridiculous talent.

The amount of possessions will skyrocket leading to record number possessions.

Why?

We will score fast and get off the field fast.

Their defense will be on the field the as much if not more throughout the game.

Their teams will hand the ball over and will hardly ever see it on offense.
 
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#5
#5
Longsufferingvol said:
I watched a Dave Hooker video earlier where he argued we saw the ceiling of Heupel's offense last year when it averaged 46 points and led the nation in points per game. I thought that was such a bad take for many reasons. First off, imagine if this offense had an elite run threat at QB.
Click to expand...

Technically leading the nation in points is every offenses ceiling. You can’t be better than first. And we had an elite run threat last year.
 
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#6
#6
Longsufferingvol said:
I watched a Dave Hooker video earlier where he argued we saw the ceiling of Heupel's offense last year when it averaged 46 points and led the nation in points per game. I thought that was such a bad take for many reasons. First off, imagine if this offense had an elite run threat at QB. Also just wait until we have an o-line that can stand toe to toe with Georgia in a few years. And what about the upgrades at the tight end position? They say Nico is a true duel threat QB and we are finally starting to land talented offensive linemen again. And the coaches and media are saying nothing but good things about the tight end personnel. When you add all of those things coming down the pipe together you have an offense that would even be a matchup nightmare for Georgia's defense. Oh yes, Dave Hooker. This offense can be scary good.
Click to expand...

If you have watched college football for many years like some of us here on the Nation, then there is a pattern that must be recognized. And I have been waiting to see it come round. Whenever a coach creates a flashy new offense that begins to dominate a segment of the game, the defensive minds around football usually take a few cycles to "catch up" to the new offense. We saw it with the wishbone back in the 80's, the fun and gun in the 90's, and now the read option since early 2000's.....among many others. The rule changes or interpretation of such by on-field officials also tend to help the offenses vs defenses but even that generally helps offensive schemes nationwide. The next big step in Heupel's evolution will be when one or two defensive coaches come up with an effective means to limit or even stop Tennessee's offense effectively. Then it will be JH's move to see if he can adjust to that new defensive scheme. THAT is the big challenge upcoming and I am hopeful that our coach can indeed do just that. Some will argue that Georgia did this over the past two years, but 2021 is not a good measure because we were so talent deficient that year and in my mind 2022 cant be used as a measure due to very significant crowd noise (including artificial piped in noise I have heard rumored in Athens). Lets see if he can adjust to the next new scheme that threatens his offense. But it sure is fun to watch this.
 
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#8
#8
Longsufferingvol said:
I watched a Dave Hooker video earlier where he argued we saw the ceiling of Heupel's offense last year when it averaged 46 points and led the nation in points per game. I thought that was such a bad take for many reasons. First off, imagine if this offense had an elite run threat at QB. Also just wait until we have an o-line that can stand toe to toe with Georgia in a few years. And what about the upgrades at the tight end position? They say Nico is a true duel threat QB and we are finally starting to land talented offensive linemen again. And the coaches and media are saying nothing but good things about the tight end personnel. When you add all of those things coming down the pipe together you have an offense that would even be a matchup nightmare for Georgia's defense. Oh yes, Dave Hooker. This offense can be scary good.
Click to expand...

Hooker wasn't an elite run threat?
 
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#17
#17
It is easier for DH to say we hit the ceiling than to say the sky is the limit. We had some pretty special players, not saying this group isn't as good but averaging 46 ppg is damn impressive.
 
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#18
#18
HiltonHeadVol said:
If you have watched college football for many years like some of us here on the Nation, then there is a pattern that must be recognized. And I have been waiting to see it come round. Whenever a coach creates a flashy new offense that begins to dominate a segment of the game, the defensive minds around football usually take a few cycles to "catch up" to the new offense. We saw it with the wishbone back in the 80's, the fun and gun in the 90's, and now the read option since early 2000's.....among many others. The rule changes or interpretation of such by on-field officials also tend to help the offenses vs defenses but even that generally helps offensive schemes nationwide. The next big step in Heupel's evolution will be when one or two defensive coaches come up with an effective means to limit or even stop Tennessee's offense effectively. Then it will be JH's move to see if he can adjust to that new defensive scheme. THAT is the big challenge upcoming and I am hopeful that our coach can indeed do just that. Some will argue that Georgia did this over the past two years, but 2021 is not a good measure because we were so talent deficient that year and in my mind 2022 cant be used as a measure due to very significant crowd noise (including artificial piped in noise I have heard rumored in Athens). Lets see if he can adjust to the next new scheme that threatens his offense. But it sure is fun to watch this.
Click to expand...
Absolutely true. Excellent post.

I'm encouraged this week to hear coaches talking about putting in new plays, new routes, etc., to maximize what each player does best. That's one way of keeping things fresh, and not just a plug-n-play offense-in-a-box.

Historically, defensive coordinators have looked for tells (keys) in a new offense that become reads for different defensive positions to anticipate where plays are going.

Coaches have also explored rule changes to negate offenses (Saban) but I can't think of a time when any football league changed a rule to help the defense. Rule changes almost always help the offense, because that's where the money is.

Other new offenses have been negated by switching to assignment-oriented defense (like, against the triple option) where players occupy a space rather than follow a man. I guess the first zone passing defense initiated that thinking.

Some passing offenses were negated by bringing enough pressure quickly enough to force short throws, while running press coverage or jumping routes (Sugar Vols against Miami's Testaverde).

In the NFL, Manning suffered some last minute interceptions when defenses blitzed, forcing receivers into their hot routes, while CBs gambled and jumped the hot route. [This is my biggest fear for this season, that some underdog team will all-out gamble the entire game, and pull out a win just from being unpredictable.]

I expect to see some interceptions this season... not from bad throws, but from DBs breaking away from their assigned coverage and jumping another route. But that will depend on defensive coordinators discerning what coverages determine which automatic route changes by our receivers, and educating their DBs to recognize them in game situations. (Which may be the actual utility of our fast pace and wide spacing: not allowing defensive backfields the time or proximity to communicate anything beyond basic coverage assignments.)

Sometimes it takes unique personnel to negate an offense. Spurrier's passing offense at Florida often depended on his receivers winning accurately placed 50/50 balls along the sidelines. Taller, faster CBs eventually lowered those odds.

If you compare football to playing rock-paper-scissors... having size AND speed will usually beat scheme over the course of a game. I think that's where Heupel has the program headed.

Five years from now, we may look back at Heupel's offense--and its defensive bookend (plus culture)--not as the scheme that put Tennessee back on top, but as the lure that first attracted exceptional players to come to Tennessee.
------
On the other hand, defensive coordinators are paid millions of dollars and stay up late nights year 'round to win games. Who knows... we might be screwed already for this season. ;)
 
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#19
#19
We're returning more than 2,000 yds of rushing production from last year and 3/5 o-lineman. I could see us leaning more on the ground game, especially early in the season, then we did last year.

I think our ceiling is high though. This team has everything it needs to make a serious run this year, just need Milton and a few other key players to live up to their potential.
 
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#20
#20
An afterthought:
One thing we can count on is every defensive line coach who has us on his schedule this season put in a much more challenging conditioning program into their off-season preparations. The D-linemen we face this season should bring more endurance than last season.

More, but not enough.

If it shows up in the stats, we might see a small drop in our first quarter scoring average.
 
#21
#21
BruisedOrange said:
Absolutely true. Excellent post.

I'm encouraged this week to hear coaches talking about putting in new plays, new routes, etc., to maximize what each player does best. That's one way of keeping things fresh, and not just a plug-n-play offense-in-a-box.

Historically, defensive coordinators have looked for tells (keys) in a new offense that become reads for different defensive positions to anticipate where plays are going.

Coaches have also explored rule changes to negate offenses (Saban) but I can't think of a time when any football league changed a rule to help the defense. Rule changes almost always help the offense, because that's where the money is.

Other new offenses have been negated by switching to assignment-oriented defense (like, against the triple option) where players occupy a space rather than follow a man. I guess the first zone passing defense initiated that thinking.

Some passing offenses were negated by bringing enough pressure quickly enough to force short throws, while running press coverage or jumping routes (Sugar Vols against Miami's Testaverde).

In the NFL, Manning suffered some last minute interceptions when defenses blitzed, forcing receivers into their hot routes, while CBs gambled and jumped the hot route. [This is my biggest fear for this season, that some underdog team will all-out gamble the entire game, and pull out a win just from being unpredictable.]

I expect to see some interceptions this season... not from bad throws, but from DBs breaking away from their assigned coverage and jumping another route. But that will depend on defensive coordinators discerning what coverages determine which automatic route changes by our receivers, and educating their DBs to recognize them in game situations. (Which may be the actual utility of our fast pace and wide spacing: not allowing defensive backfields the time or proximity to communicate anything beyond basic coverage assignments.)

Sometimes it takes unique personnel to negate an offense. Spurrier's passing offense at Florida often depended on his receivers winning accurately placed 50/50 balls along the sidelines. Taller, faster CBs eventually lowered those odds.

If you compare football to playing rock-paper-scissors... having size AND speed will usually beat scheme over the course of a game. I think that's where Heupel has the program headed.

Five years from now, we may look back at Heupel's offense--and its defensive bookend (plus culture)--not as the scheme that put Tennessee back on top, but as the lure that first attracted exceptional players to come to Tennessee.
------
On the other hand, defensive coordinators are paid millions of dollars and stay up late nights year 'round to win games. Who knows... we might be screwed already for this season. ;)
Click to expand...
Excellent points here Bru'. The fascinating thing that you alluded to is that Huep's system has forever pretty much utilized "2nd tier players" to essentially make their offense overachieve. Now, Huep did have some occasional ballers to plug into his plan but what I am excited to see is exactly what you referred to ......attracting elite or near elite level players with depth at all positions to run his offense. That we have never seen, ever.....not under Heup at Mizzo, CentFla, or Tennessee yet. So it is exciting to sit and watch to see just how far he can take it with top tier players. And I appreciate JH's seeming attention paid to getting a defensive unit full of the same level of players. In fact, I am really hoping the D surprises some folks and maybe saves our bacon early on - like in Gainesville.
 
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#22
#22
HiltonHeadVol said:
Excellent points here Bru'. The fascinating thing that you alluded to is that Huep's system has forever pretty much utilized "2nd tier players" to essentially make their offense overachieve. Now, Huep did have some occasional ballers to plug into his plan but what I am excited to see is exactly what you referred to ......attracting elite or near elite level players with depth at all positions to run his offense. That we have never seen, ever.....not under Heup at Mizzo, CentFla, or Tennessee yet. So it is exciting to sit and watch to see just how far he can take it with top tier players. And I appreciate JH's seeming attention paid to getting a defensive unit full of the same level of players. In fact, I am really hoping the D surprises some folks and maybe saves our bacon early on - like in Gainesville.
Click to expand...
Couldn't agree more. Great point about us seeing something even Heupel hasn't had a chance to see. That's just a fact, regardless of what color your glasses are.
 
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#23
#23
barney said:
We're returning more than 2,000 yds of rushing production from last year and 3/5 o-lineman. I could see us leaning more on the ground game, especially early in the season, then we did last year.

I think our ceiling is high though. This team has everything it needs to make a serious run this year, just need Milton and a few other key players to live up to their potential.
Click to expand...
If we get Clemson Milton we're a serious contender.
 
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#24
#24
barney said:
We're returning more than 2,000 yds of rushing production from last year and 3/5 o-lineman. I could see us leaning more on the ground game, especially early in the season, then we did last year.

I think our ceiling is high though. This team has everything it needs to make a serious run this year, just need Milton and a few other key players to live up to their potential.
Click to expand...
We have 3 RBs (at least) with 1000 yd potential. We had that with Hurd, Kamara, and John Kelly.
That is being stacked.

One thought, if our defense improves, especially on 3rd down, it will actually offer the offense shorter fields multiple times per game. Better defense will limit offensive yardage stats, but creating many easier scoring situations.
We could see stats come down as the team improves.
Awesome problem to have.
 
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#25
#25
A lot of ppl forget the Pitt game, we got off to a slow start but nobody panicked, I think because Hooker & Heupel brought a calmness. Just hope if we have a slow start this year ppl don't come out throwing barbs. Since there is a contingent of Vol fans that are not confident in QB1 from some I've read on here, even though he finished strong.
Even with this game and the UGA game we still had a dominant O.
 
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