How Tennessee can win the SEC East

#1
zjcvols

zjcvols

"On a Tennessee Saturday night."
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#1
Is this crazy? Yes. But not impossible. Let's assume Tennessee loses against Alabama (I know, such a pessimist). Does that mean Tennessee is out of it? Actually, no. If a crazy series of events occur, Tennessee can go to Atlanta. Let's break it down.

What Tennessee would have to do is win out after the Alabama game. That would land them 8-4 (5-3). They would have tiebreakers over South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Kentucky. Florida and Georgia owns tiebreakers over UT.

Georgia
Current record:4-3 (3-2)
SEC Wins: vs. South Carolina, vs. LSU, @Tennessee
SEC Losses: vs. Mizzouri, @Vanderbilt
Remaining SEC games: @Florida, @Auburn, vs. Kentucky
Most likely loss: @Auburn
Most likely win: vs. Kentucky
What needs to happen: Georgia needs to lose two SEC games.
Chances this happens: Florida still has a good D, but Georgia still has Aaron Murray. Can Florida score some points and run the ball against a depleted Georgia D? Not sure. I believe Georgia loses to Auburn at the Plains. I have UGA a slight favorite over Florida and Auburn a moderate favorite. I go with 50% they lose to both Florida and Auburn

Florida
Current Record: 4-3 (3-2)
SEC Wins: vs. Tennessee, vs. Kentucky, vs. Arkansas
SEC losses: @ LSU, @Mizzouri
Remaining SEC games: vs. Georgia, vs. Vanderbilt, @ South Carolina
Most likely loss: @South Carolina
Most likely win: vs. Vanderbilt
What needs to happens: Florida needs to lose two SEC games.
Chances this happens: I got Florida as a slight underdog against Georgia, and a heavy underdog @South Carolina. I give Florida a 40% chance against Georgia, and a 70% chance against South Carolina to win. I give them about a 40% chance to beat Georgia and lose to South Carolina. Preferably, Florida needs to beat Georgia, and lose to Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Not likely in my opinion. Overall, about 20% they beat Georgia and lose to Vandy and South Carolina.

South Carolina
Current Record: 5-2 (3-2)
SEC Wins: vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Kentucky, @Arkansas
SEC Losses: @Georgia, @Tennessee
Remaning SEC games: @Missouri, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Florida
Most likely loss: @Missouri
Most likely win: vs. Mississippi State
What needs to happen: South Carolina needs to lose to either Missouri or Mississippi State, but beat Florida.
Chances this happens: This looks good. I think Missouri gets South Carolina, and I think South Carolina gets Florida, especially since Connor Shaw should be back. I give them about a 70% chance to lose to Missouri and beat Florida.

Missouri
Current Record: 7-0 (3-0)
SEC Wins: @Vanderbilt, @Georgia, vs. Florida
SEC Losses: None
Remaining SEC games: vs. South Carolina, vs. Tennessee, @Kentucky, @Ole Miss, @Texas A&M
Most likely loss: @Texas A&M
Most likely SEC win: vs. South Carolina
What needs to happen: Tennessee HAS to beat Missouri, and Missouri preferably needs to lose to Texas A&M and Ole Miss
Chances this happens: This is a tough one to predict. I do not believe Missouri is for real, but they just have to go 2-3 the rest of the way in the SEC if one of those wins is Tennessee. And it would help to beat South Carolina. But I think UT gets Missouri, along with Ole Miss and TAMU beating them. But I also need to be realistic. I'll go 40% chance this happens.

As long as Tennessee beats Vanderbilt and Kentucky, those two can't go to the SEC title game.

I didn't try and add them up. I tried to give percentages on what I think. It's confusing yes. Overall, for all this to happen, along with UT winning the last four games...this is my percentage breakdown of chances to go to Atlanta:

Missouri: 40%
Georgia: 30%
Florida: 20%
Tennessee: 10%


But hey, you know what they say.......

a-chance.gif
 
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#3
#3
zjcvols said:
Is this crazy? Yes. But not impossible. Let's assume Tennessee loses against Alabama (I know, such a pessimist). Does that mean Tennessee is out of it? Actually, no. If a crazy series of events occur, Tennessee can go to Atlanta. Let's break it down.

What Tennessee would have to do is win out after the Alabama game. That would land them 8-4 (5-3). They would have tiebreakers over South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Kentucky. Florida and Georgia owns tiebreakers over UT.

Georgia
Current record:4-3 (3-2)
SEC Wins: vs. South Carolina, vs. LSU, @Tennessee
SEC Losses: vs. Mizzouri, @Vanderbilt
Remaining SEC games: @Florida, @Auburn, vs. Kentucky
Most likely loss: @Auburn
Most likely win: vs. Kentucky
What needs to happen: Georgia needs to lose two SEC games.
Chances this happens: Florida still has a good D, but Georgia still has Aaron Murray. Can Florida score some points and run the ball against a depleted Georgia D? Not sure. I believe Georgia loses to Auburn at the Plains. I have UGA a slight favorite over Florida and Auburn a moderate favorite. I go with 50% they lose to both Florida and Auburn

Florida
Current Record: 4-3 (3-2)
SEC Wins: vs. Tennessee, vs. Kentucky, vs. Arkansas
SEC losses: @ LSU, @Mizzouri
Remaining SEC games: vs. Georgia, vs. Vanderbilt, @ South Carolina
Most likely loss: @South Carolina
Most likely win: vs. Vanderbilt
What needs to happens: Florida needs to lose two SEC games.
Chances this happens: I got Florida as a slight underdog against Georgia, and a heavy underdog @South Carolina. I give Florida a 40% chance against Georgia, and a 70% chance against South Carolina to win. I give them about a 40% chance to beat Georgia and lose to South Carolina. Preferably, Florida needs to beat Georgia, and lose to Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Not likely in my opinion. Overall, about 20% they beat Georgia and lose to Vandy and South Carolina.

South Carolina
Current Record: 5-2 (3-2)
SEC Wins: vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Kentucky, @Arkansas
SEC Losses: @Georgia, @Tennessee
Remaning SEC games: @Missouri, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Florida
Most likely loss: @Missouri
Most likely win: vs. Mississippi State
What needs to happen: South Carolina needs to lose to either Missouri or Mississippi State, but beat Florida.
Chances this happens: This looks good. I think Missouri gets South Carolina, and I think South Carolina gets Florida, especially since Connor Shaw should be back. I give them about a 70% chance to lose to Missouri and beat Florida.

Missouri
Current Record: 7-0 (3-0)
SEC Wins: @Vanderbilt, @Georgia, vs. Florida
SEC Losses: None
Remaining SEC games: vs. South Carolina, vs. Tennessee, @Kentucky, @Ole Miss, @Texas A&M
Most likely loss: @Texas A&M
Most likely SEC win: vs. South Carolina
What needs to happen: Tennessee HAS to beat Missouri, and Missouri preferably needs to lose to Texas A&M and Ole Miss
Chances this happens: This is a tough one to predict. I do not believe Missouri is for real, but they just have to go 2-3 the rest of the way in the SEC if one of those wins is Tennessee. And it would help to beat South Carolina. But I think UT gets Missouri, along with Ole Miss and TAMU beating them. But I also need to be realistic. I'll go 40% chance this happens.

As long as Tennessee beats Vanderbilt and Kentucky, those two can't go to the SEC title game.

I didn't try and add them up. I tried to give percentages on what I think. It's confusing yes. Overall, for all this to happen, along with UT winning the last four games...this is my percentage breakdown of chances to go to Atlanta:

Missouri: 40%
Georgia: 30%
Florida: 20%
Tennessee: 10%


But hey, you know what they say.......

a-chance.gif
Click to expand...

Tl;dr
 
#5
#5
Notorious B.E.N said:
Tl;dr
Click to expand...

Simpletons don't appreciate the fine works of life, sir Benjamin.

For you my friend:

A lot of teams need to lose, Tennessee needs to get hot and kick some ass, and if it breaks right, we can go to Atlanta.
 
#6
#6
zjcvols said:
Simpletons don't appreciate the fine works of life, sir Benjamin.

For you my friend:

A lot of teams need to lose, Tennessee needs to get hot and kick some ass, and if it breaks right, we can go to Atlanta.
Click to expand...

Ahh, now i digs tha ka-nowledge.
 
#7
#7
Vercingetorix said:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0Y1KAHVWhU[/youtube]
Click to expand...

I highly doubt it happens, but I thought it was interesting to break it down. It would take Vandy beating Florida in Gainesville, which isn't going to happen.
 
#8
#8
zjcvols said:
Simpletons don't appreciate the fine works of life, sir Benjamin.

For you my friend:

A lot of teams need to lose, Tennessee needs to get hot and kick some ass, and if it breaks right, we can go to Atlanta.
Click to expand...

But we have missed your 10 thoughts post game threads for the last two games.
 
#9
#9
Notorious B.E.N said:
But we have missed your 10 thoughts post game threads for the last two games.
Click to expand...

I was too heart broken for the Georgia game. It's probably the only game I could not bring myself to do one.

The South Carolina game I only caught the second half and didn't watch the first half till Monday.
 
#10
#10
zjcvols said:
I was too heart broken for the Georgia game. It's probably the only game I could not bring myself to do one.

The South Carolina game I only caught the second half and didn't watch the first half till Monday.
Click to expand...

Pregnancy/baby...you know the rest.
 
#11
#11
zjcvols said:
I highly doubt it happens, but I thought it was interesting to break it down. It would take Vandy beating Florida in Gainesville, which isn't going to happen.
Click to expand...

That's not out of the question. Florida sucks. They can't score, and the defense hasn't been close to the same since Easley got hurt. The problem is that, assuming nobody loses to Kentucky, every other game has to go in exactly one way. It's not 10 percent; it's more like 1 or 2.
 
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#12
#12
We don't need Georgia to lose 2 more, only 1 more, and beat Mizzou with them losing 2 more, then we all have 5-3 SEC records, with no clear tiebreaker...That clears Georgia if they lose to Auburn and we win based on rule 7... then it's just us and Mizzou, we win the tiebreaker. Right? This is confusing...

B. THREE (OR MORE) TEAM TIE

1. (Once the tie has been reduced to two teams, go to the two-team tie-breaker format.)
2. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams.
3. Record of the tied teams within the division.
4. Head-to-head competition vs. the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference record and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last.
5. Overall record vs. non-division teams.
6. Combined record vs. all common non-divisional teams.
7. Record vs. common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference (divisional and non-divisional) record and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division.
8. The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the last weekend of regular-season games shall be the divisional representative in the SEC Championship Game, unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the SEC Championship Game.
 
Last edited:
#13
#13
IF....we can win out, we're going to Atlanta. GA & FL will lose another SEC game, and MIZZ will lose to Ole Miss & A&M.
 
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#14
#14
Vercingetorix said:
That's not out of the question. Florida sucks. They can't score, and the defense hasn't been close to the same since Easley got hurt. The problem is that, assuming nobody loses to Kentucky, every other game has to go in exactly one way. It's not 10 percent; it's more like 1 or 2.
Click to expand...


Furthermore, do we really want to face the prospect of the Commodes being able to brag about beating both Georgia and Florida when we couldn't defeat either one? Of course, that scenario would conveniently ignore the fact that we knocked Florida's starting quarterback out and essentially left Georgia crippled and dead in the water, depleted of virtually all of their offensive armament. Vanderbilt and Missouri already owe us a huge debt of gratitude for incapacitating Georgia.
 
#15
#15
I LOVE the positive energy and thoughts man. and your right, our guys do have a chance..

however, it isn't happening.

that being said, I'd rather talk to 100 optimistic people like you then 1, ONE Negavol.
 
#18
#18
You had me till you said Missouri's most likely win is over South Carolina - they still have Kentucky on their schedule.
It appears some breaks are starting to go our way again, but I don't see us winning the East if we lose another game.
 
#19
#19
All that needs to happen is we win out, Mizzou loses to either Tamu or Ole Miss or SC, GA loses to FL or Auburn, and FL loses to GA or SC. All of that is likely, except the first one.
 
#23
#23
Mr. Lofton said:
You had me till you said Missouri's most likely win is over South Carolina - they still have Kentucky on their schedule.
It appears some breaks are starting to go our way again, but I don't see us winning the East if we lose another game.
Click to expand...

I guess it's easy to forget that UK has a football team.
 
#25
#25
Vercingetorix said:
That's not out of the question. Florida sucks. They can't score, and the defense hasn't been close to the same since Easley got hurt. The problem is that, assuming nobody loses to Kentucky, every other game has to go in exactly one way. It's not 10 percent; it's more like 1 or 2.
Click to expand...

I calculated our odds of winning out at 1.62% and was fairly generous in the process. That's not including the other games going our way. That's just the results of our games.

I figure
Bama 15%
Mizzou 40%
AU 40%
VU 75%
Kentucky 90%

The only game I feel like I wasn't generous to Tennessee was maybe Kentucky.

The really sad part is that I still haven't completely given up yet.
 
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