DiderotsGhost
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There was a recent thread about where Tennessee would be five years from now. I admittedly have a difficult time answering that question, but I did think it would be interesting to take a look at how the rest of the NCAA landscape might change in five years.
My predictions:
Alabama. Still dominant. I don't think Saban will leave soon, and they'll remain a powerhouse until he goes.
Michigan. Will become dominant again. I like what Brady Hoke's doing there, and he has a history of building programs. It's worthwhile to note that Scout currently ranks Michigan's class #1 in the nation. While they'll likely drop somewhat in the final rankings, this still shows that Hoke's doing a great job recruiting, and we know he's a great coach, so would not be surprised to see them re-emerge as a national contender, in spite of a few minor setbacks this year.
UCLA. Will become a major player in the Pac-12. Remember when Rick Neuheisel came in and declared the end of USC's dominance in LA? That didn't turn out so well. UCLA looked even more futile after he left than before. Funny enough, hardly anyone is talking about how things could reverse under Jim Mora, yet it seems much more likely to me this time around. Mora is a proven NFL head coach. His background is actually remarkably similar to Pete Carroll's. That doesn't guarantee success, but the guy can obviously coach. While I don't know if USC will remain good or not under Kiffin (he's still bringing in top recruiting classes), I do think UCLA will at least become a player in the PAC-12 race.
Colorado. Streak of futility will continue. It's almost like this university has given up on football completely. I remember when they were a national title contender.
South Carolina. Return to middle of the pack / lower pack SEC team. There are some reasons to believe that South Carolina will continue building upon their recent success, but I think Spurrier will retire in the next five years and SC will have a hard time staying where they are in the SEC pecking order once that happens.
Mississippi State. Dan Mullen is too good of a coach to stay there for long. If he does stay, this team will continue to perform well, but he has to know that winning a championship at Miss St is all but impossible, and his odds would be improved by jumping over to a more name-brand school with more resources.
Texas A&M. Tough to say how A&M will fare against the SEC and with Coach Sumlin, but I do think their move to the SEC will change the dynamics with their arch-nemesis, Texas. Texas has dominated recruiting rankings for over a decade and A&M has lagged behind, without as strong of an identity. Being in the SEC helps A&M re-establish its identity and you can already see them jumping over Texas in the recruiting rankings. Don't be surprised if A&M becomes an SEC contender, as well.
Tennessee. I really have a difficult time predicting how the Derek Dooley experiment will end, but there's one particularly ominous sign to me; Tennessee is currently ranked #24 by Scout and #20 by Rivals in recruiting. This isn't horrendous, but it does mean that only four SEC teams are ranked worse than us: Arkansas (with its lame duck coach), Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Missouri. It was the same deal last year (but slightly different teams under us). As good as the SEC is right now, it's going to be difficult to remain competitive when we are ranked 10th out of 14 in the SEC. Even Vanderbilt is beating us right now. But as to where we will be in 5 years --- it's almost impossible to tell. Dooley can still succeed, but it's going to take on-field improvement to drive recruiting improvement. I think recruits are shying away from UT right now b/c they know Dooley is on the hot seat. Winning this year will dispel that perception.
Washington. I'm a believer in what Steve Sarkasian has been doing at Washington. This is a great program that had fallen into the gutter, but I think he's really turned the place around. Another team that will regularly compete for Pac-12 titles in the upcoming years.
PAC-12. Speaking of Washington and UCLA, the PAC-12 in general is getting a lot stronger. In my view, the SEC has been the strongest league in the NCAA without question for nearly every year over the past decade. A few years, the Big-12 was a close second, but even then, I think the SEC was stronger. But the Pac-12 really looks like it could overtake the Big-12 as the second best league, and maybe even give the SEC a run for its money here or there.
Vanderbilt. Return to futility. Can't see Franklin staying there. They've dropped off a bit this year, but he's already shown he knows how to coach and motivate. All he needs is another good year (and 7-6 is a great year for Vanderbilt!) and some bigger program will try to lure him away. I mean ... if you can get the #18 recruiting class at frickin' Vandy, then there are a lot of programs out there that are going to have you high upon their wish list.
Auburn. Will fire Chizik within the next five years. Don't think any Auburn coach has ever lived up to expectations there. Remember, this is the program that fired Terry Bowden after having around a .735 winning percentage, and tried to fire Tommy Tuberville right before he went undefeated. Look, I know all the schools in the SEC have impatient and demanding fanbases, but there's no school with quite as crazy expectations as Auburn.
I think there are a lot more intriguing storylines, as well:
Will Florida State re-emerge as a national contender?
Will Dabo Sweeney finally get over the hump at Clemson?
Can RichRod turn Arizona around?
Will Penn State have a decade of futility?
Can Cutcliff take Duke to bowl games regularly?
But I offer no predictions on those.
What are your predictions for five years down the road?
My predictions:
Alabama. Still dominant. I don't think Saban will leave soon, and they'll remain a powerhouse until he goes.
Michigan. Will become dominant again. I like what Brady Hoke's doing there, and he has a history of building programs. It's worthwhile to note that Scout currently ranks Michigan's class #1 in the nation. While they'll likely drop somewhat in the final rankings, this still shows that Hoke's doing a great job recruiting, and we know he's a great coach, so would not be surprised to see them re-emerge as a national contender, in spite of a few minor setbacks this year.
UCLA. Will become a major player in the Pac-12. Remember when Rick Neuheisel came in and declared the end of USC's dominance in LA? That didn't turn out so well. UCLA looked even more futile after he left than before. Funny enough, hardly anyone is talking about how things could reverse under Jim Mora, yet it seems much more likely to me this time around. Mora is a proven NFL head coach. His background is actually remarkably similar to Pete Carroll's. That doesn't guarantee success, but the guy can obviously coach. While I don't know if USC will remain good or not under Kiffin (he's still bringing in top recruiting classes), I do think UCLA will at least become a player in the PAC-12 race.
Colorado. Streak of futility will continue. It's almost like this university has given up on football completely. I remember when they were a national title contender.
South Carolina. Return to middle of the pack / lower pack SEC team. There are some reasons to believe that South Carolina will continue building upon their recent success, but I think Spurrier will retire in the next five years and SC will have a hard time staying where they are in the SEC pecking order once that happens.
Mississippi State. Dan Mullen is too good of a coach to stay there for long. If he does stay, this team will continue to perform well, but he has to know that winning a championship at Miss St is all but impossible, and his odds would be improved by jumping over to a more name-brand school with more resources.
Texas A&M. Tough to say how A&M will fare against the SEC and with Coach Sumlin, but I do think their move to the SEC will change the dynamics with their arch-nemesis, Texas. Texas has dominated recruiting rankings for over a decade and A&M has lagged behind, without as strong of an identity. Being in the SEC helps A&M re-establish its identity and you can already see them jumping over Texas in the recruiting rankings. Don't be surprised if A&M becomes an SEC contender, as well.
Tennessee. I really have a difficult time predicting how the Derek Dooley experiment will end, but there's one particularly ominous sign to me; Tennessee is currently ranked #24 by Scout and #20 by Rivals in recruiting. This isn't horrendous, but it does mean that only four SEC teams are ranked worse than us: Arkansas (with its lame duck coach), Kentucky, Ole Miss, and Missouri. It was the same deal last year (but slightly different teams under us). As good as the SEC is right now, it's going to be difficult to remain competitive when we are ranked 10th out of 14 in the SEC. Even Vanderbilt is beating us right now. But as to where we will be in 5 years --- it's almost impossible to tell. Dooley can still succeed, but it's going to take on-field improvement to drive recruiting improvement. I think recruits are shying away from UT right now b/c they know Dooley is on the hot seat. Winning this year will dispel that perception.
Washington. I'm a believer in what Steve Sarkasian has been doing at Washington. This is a great program that had fallen into the gutter, but I think he's really turned the place around. Another team that will regularly compete for Pac-12 titles in the upcoming years.
PAC-12. Speaking of Washington and UCLA, the PAC-12 in general is getting a lot stronger. In my view, the SEC has been the strongest league in the NCAA without question for nearly every year over the past decade. A few years, the Big-12 was a close second, but even then, I think the SEC was stronger. But the Pac-12 really looks like it could overtake the Big-12 as the second best league, and maybe even give the SEC a run for its money here or there.
Vanderbilt. Return to futility. Can't see Franklin staying there. They've dropped off a bit this year, but he's already shown he knows how to coach and motivate. All he needs is another good year (and 7-6 is a great year for Vanderbilt!) and some bigger program will try to lure him away. I mean ... if you can get the #18 recruiting class at frickin' Vandy, then there are a lot of programs out there that are going to have you high upon their wish list.
Auburn. Will fire Chizik within the next five years. Don't think any Auburn coach has ever lived up to expectations there. Remember, this is the program that fired Terry Bowden after having around a .735 winning percentage, and tried to fire Tommy Tuberville right before he went undefeated. Look, I know all the schools in the SEC have impatient and demanding fanbases, but there's no school with quite as crazy expectations as Auburn.
I think there are a lot more intriguing storylines, as well:
Will Florida State re-emerge as a national contender?
Will Dabo Sweeney finally get over the hump at Clemson?
Can RichRod turn Arizona around?
Will Penn State have a decade of futility?
Can Cutcliff take Duke to bowl games regularly?
But I offer no predictions on those.
What are your predictions for five years down the road?
