How will the economy affect the election?

[lawgator1]

The Dow hit a four year high today. Is that a leading indicator of anticipated increase in GDP? Lower unemployment? Or is it just investment money fleeing terrible returns on bonds and hoping for better in stocks?

Are the investors wrong, and we are headed for stagnant growth of, at best, 2 percent for the foreseeable future?

Will Europe inevitably fail to deal with their debt problems, sending the world into rapid recession?

Come November, what do you think -- who will the economy favor and why?

 

[golfballs]

Well it's due for a crash, so I say Romney

 

[golfballs]

:cheer:

 

[n_huffhines]

Better question?

How will America's lack of economic understanding affect the election?

 

[Cartervol]

I chose the last one. I think that's about where it's going to be. There is a lot of issues with why the economy is like it is. Bring some work back home, lower the corporate tax, get the green nazis off everyone's backs. You would see it get much better in a hurry.

 

[volinbham]

GDP growth was revised down. First time unemployment claims have been up for at least 3 straight weeks.

Signs point to more of the same with the economy - sluggish growth at best and minimal change in UE rate.

By all measures, the recovery is underwhelming.

 

[VolsNSkinsFan]

The economy will "improve" at 2.0% a year and the UE rate will be below 8% b/c 200k people "retire" and companies hire 150k every month. Meanwhile "the Dip" will be bought and "the Rip'" will be sold as QE3 will always be just around the corner

 

[TheDeeble]

The DOW was at all time highs in 2007. How was that for an economic indicator?

 

[BeecherVol]

GDP growth was revised down. First time unemployment claims have been up for at least 3 straight weeks.

Signs point to more of the same with the economy - sluggish growth at best and minimal change in UE rate.

By all measures, the recovery is underwhelming.

Covers it well.

When it comes to November Obama has to pass this off on something other than bad policy and direction on his part. If he is able to pull of this misdirection he will get 4 more years to make a bigger mess.

 

[VolsNSkinsFan]

ADP jobs data 119K vs 170k exp

Big miss

Fridays nonfarm payroll will be below 100k IMO

 

[myrobbins7]

U.S. stock-index futures off 0.4% after ADP data

More of that to come.

 

[VolsNSkinsFan]

Going to be tough to be bullish this summer

 

[golfballs]

News Headlines

 

[YorkVol]

I predict unemployment benefits will be extended in October, thus making sure there are sufficient numbers of the Democratic base available on election day to give the President a second term.

 

[VolsNSkinsFan]

The "October Surprise" will be a major arrest of some wall street fat cat like the Lehman CEO.

 

[vols4sure]

http://www.volnation.com/forum/politics/133688-obama-just-got-re-elected.html

LG last year: "No rate increase for two years. Economy Is going to take off."

 

[VolsNSkinsFan]

Factory orders suffer largest drop in 3 years | Reuters

New orders for U.S. factory goods in March recorded their biggest decline in three years as demand for transportation equipment and a range of other goods slumped, government data showed on Wednesday.

The Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods dropped 1.5 percent after a revised 1.1 percent rise in February.

 

[volinbham]

http://www.volnation.com/forum/politics/133688-obama-just-got-re-elected.html

LG last year: "No rate increase for two years. Economy Is going to take off."

Lulz. Goes along with the prediction that we were set for an era of Dem control of House/Senate and presidency (pre-2010 elections)

Thread also has some great references by posters no longer with us and a prediction that the thread is premature and bumpable.

 

[Gramps]

I predict unemployment benefits will be extended in October, thus making sure there are sufficient numbers of the Democratic base available on election day to give the President a second term.

The GOP in the House will have to agree to extend UE benefits.

 

[VolsNSkinsFan]

Spain's Unemployment Rate Is Now Almost As High As US Unemployment In Great Depression - Business Insider

We got a boatload of horrible economic news from Europe this morning, starting with unemployment.

Unemployment for the Eurozone as a whole rose to 10.9%, a new high.

Unemployment in Spain, meanwhile, rose to a shocking 24.1% from 23.8%, with an even more startling 51% youth unemployment rate.

Euro Ecomony seems stable

 

[MG1968]

The economy will stay rougly the same, both sides claim advantage, net effect marginal

I chose that one, because "rougly" is easier and more fun to say than "empmnt"

 

[VolsNSkinsFan]

NFP +116k which is a big miss with exp 170k

UE rate at 8.1%. Labor force fell 342k. Ever since Obama took office, its fallen hard

We almost have 100 Million adults not working

 

[T-TownVol]

BHO's campaign slogan is, in effect, "It could be Worse".

 

[Gramps]

BHO's campaign slogan is, in effect, "It could be Worse".

Wow, a campaign slogan that is truthful. That is rare.

It is leaving out the "or it could be better" part of slogan.

 

[rjd970]

NFP +116k which is a big miss with exp 170k

UE rate at 8.1%. Labor force fell 342k. Ever since Obama took office, its fallen hard

We almost have 100 Million adults not working

It also fell after Bush took office (albeit not as far). Why was that?

Also, the scale on your y-axis is telling. 66% to 63.5%. I honestly don't know, but is -2.5% a lot in the grand scheme of things over the last 20 years? Also, what does the graph look like after January this year? Any upswings?