So relax, Alabama (or Georgia) fans, your BCS hopes aren't nearly as dead as the rest of the non-SEC world might have you believe. Unfortunately, should at least two of Notre Dame, Oregon, and K-State lose, it's still not a given that Alabama deserves one of the two slots in Miami. They will probably get it, mostly because, well
Alabama. Starting the season at no. 2 and rolling over opponents until last weekend meant a loss to Texas A&M only dropped the Tide three spots. The problem is that those opponents were never much to begin with.
Michigan never played up to their preseason adulation, and the records of the Tides next six opponents following that win in Dallas are as follows (SEC conference marks in parenthesis): 6-4, 4-6 (2-4), 3-7, 5-5 (2-4), 5-5 (2-5), 4-6 (0-6). The only team with a winning record in that stretch is Western Kentucky, which currently sits tied for fifth in the mighty Sun Belt conference.
The first seemingly legitimate opponent Alabama played was Mississippi State, on the last weekend in October. Going into that game, the Bulldogs were 7-0 against Jackson State, Troy, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee (four non-BCS conference schools) and three conference foes who currently have a combined zero SEC wins yes, Tennessee, Auburn, and Kentucky are 0-20. So even MSU might have been just a tad bit overrated heading into Tuscaloosa. The Bulldogs lost their next three games by a combined 76 points.
Basically, Alabama has played two tough games LSU and Texas A&M. They are 1-1 in those games. Sure, if they win out, Alabama would add a win over Georgia to its résumé, but you can and should similarly belittle Georgia's schedule.
The Bulldogs are also 1-1 against "good" opponents losing at South Carolina and beating Florida at the Cocktail Party. The rest of the Bulldogs' SEC schedule are a combined 8-32. Repeat: It's November, and save for the two games against ranked teams, the rest of Georgia's conference opponents have a combined eight wins. And Vandy has half of those. At 4-3 in the conference and 6-4 overall, the Commodores are the only conference opponent aside from SC and Florida that have made it to bowl eligibility.
When Vanderbilt is part of the argument for your team, your argument is probably bad.
Alabama's Chances of Playing for the BCS Championship Are Better (But Less Deserved) Than You Might Think - The Triangle Blog - Grantland
