Just mainly depends on where LSU fell.
If they fall behind bama, your top 2 in the sec west are Arky and bama, they're within 5 ranked spaces, tie goes to Alabama due to beating the hogs early in the year
If LSU somehow manages to fall ahead of Bama (would take a miracle and an odd outcome....arky needs to probably win by ALOT but too much and lsu risks falling behind bama), then it's arky and LSU, arky beat LSU that week, they go to the SEC championship game
If LSU stayed ahead of Bama, wouldn't they be the top 2 (instead of Arky), and so LSU would go to the championship?
So basically if LSU loses, Alabama will go to the SECCG and the NCG.
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If undefeated LSU loses the SEC CG, do you put Bama vs. Oregon in the BCS game after LSU beat them both? Assuming wins by those teams of course.
- The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the last weekend of regular-season games shall be the divisional representative in the SEC Championship Game, unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the SEC Championship Game.
LSU. If they dropped below Alabama but stayed ahead of Arkansas, LSU would be the second team in the BCS tiebreaker equation. Which means they would advance to the SECCG because they beat Bama head-to-head.
If Arkansas doesn't jump bama. If Arkansas is 2-3 spaces behind bama, it's hard to see a win over the #1 team either not result in them jumping Alabama or not result in lsu dropping behind the team that beat them
Alabama would be #2 at that point (with OSU's loss), so they would go to number 1 if LSU falls. And I agree that it is unlikely that Arky would not jump LSU if they won, but it's still an interesting scenario. I wish it would happen though; all it does is highlight the necessity for a +1 or playoff system.