paul1454
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A lot of us have been voicing our opinions on last nights passage of the health care bill in the House and I would like to give my opinion on the matter. Ultimately, I can not support the bill passed by the House, not because I do not want to help others, but because I believe there is a better way of doing so that does not create a net loss on society and the economy. Below, I have tried to remain as unbiased as possible, in an attempt to focus on an area that is largely left out of the mainstream media the economics of the current proposals. I apologize beforehand for not posting it in one of the other threads discussing the matter, but I was afraid this might get lost in the bickering between kicker33 and everyone else. In addition, because this may be long, I may have to break it up into several posts.
These proposals illustrate a tradeoff between equality and efficiency (most good for the most number of people or utilitarianism). The two primary justifications for health care reform have been the equitable goal of ensuring everyone has access to care and then the economic argument that shifting the burden of uncompensated care to private payers has caused private health insurance to skyrocket. Certainly, reducing the number of those who cannot afford health care is an important policy goal of advanced societies such as the United States. This goal has been the driving factor in the push for the current Senate and House bills. Judged under this framework, it is hard to say the health care bills will not meet their goal. According to a study conducted by the RAND Corporation, the current bills would reduce the number of uninsured by roughly 56%, from nearly 49 million to 23 million by 2019 (http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/2010/RAND_RB9519.pdf).
Despite this accomplishment, I believe these bills address the countrys problem of health care in the wrong direction by focusing on accessibilitity first and costs second. The significance of health care reform hinges on the number of people cannot afford health care is the costs, which ultimately leads to decreasing accessiblity. Thus, it is the affordability that is the problem. As the President of Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield in Wisconsin recently noted, Insurance is expensive because health care is expensive. Focusing on reforming health insurance is not going to reduce the costs of health care. In other words, increasing accessibility without focusing on costs is like putting a band-aid on an amputated arm. Unfortunately, rather than seeking to increase access to health care within a framework that better aligns the American health care market so that it can properly control costs, the current proposals seek the opposite.
Before getting into my arguments against the current proposals, I wanted to discuss a general outline of how the bills seek to accomplish their desired objectives (in case you havent been keeping up with them). The current proposals accomplish increasing accessibility this by several policies. First, companies offering health insurance coverage will be required to offer insurance to every individual who so desires coverage (guaranteed issue provision). Second, insurance companies will be prohibited from pricing high-risk consumers out of the insurance market by prohibiting increased prices due to factors such as health status, medical condition, claims experience, receipt of health care, medical history, or genetic information. In addition, insurance companies are restricted from adjusting premiums beyond a Congressionally mandated range based on various other factors, such as 1.5 to 1 for tobacco use and 3 to 1 for age. Finally, after ensuring coverage is offered to all Americans, they must be able to afford them. So, prepayable tax credits (you can get them before you file your return) will be given to families with incomes up to 400% of the FPL. In addition, Medicaid will be expanded somewhere between 133% and 200% of the FPL (depending on which bill you are talking about).
Standing alone, the guaranteed issue provisions will help provide access to insurance for high-risk people who have been denied coverage by insurance companies. Similarly, the limits on price adjustments for preexisting conditions will draw more people with high expected medical costs into the market. However, reducing the ability of insureds to adjust prices based on risk ultimately increases premium prices for low risk individuals while simultaneously decreasing costs on very risky. In addition, requiring insurance companies to offer coverage while simultaneously partially eliminating their ability to adjust prices for risk brings about serious adverse selection concerns. In other words, a low risk individual armed with the knowledge that their premiums will not increase as their risk increases could simply stay out of the market by not purchasing insurance until they need care. This is because the law will prevent them from being denied coverage when they later seek to get insurance and even if they wait to get insurance until having preexisting conditino, they will not be charged a rate comenserate with their risk. This is akin to allowing a person to purchase home owners insurance after a fire and requireing the insurance company to cover them.
If left unfettered, the health insurance reform would ultimately lead to very risky consumers entering the market while less risky consumers sitting out until their risk increased. As Bams favorite economist Paul Krugman has pointed out, enacting guaranteed issue provisions and limiting risk-based pricing, with nothing else, would result in a death spiral of costs. According to Krugman, the only way to prevent the susceptibility for increased adverse selection is to keep healthy people in the risk pool, which means requiring that people purchase insurance. (Op-Ed Columnist - California Death Spiral - NYTimes.com). In fact, this is exactly what Congress and the President have done. They have included mandates in these bills that impose tax penalties for those who do not purchase qualified health insurance coverage by 2014. In the Senate Bill, the individual mandate tax equals the greater of 2% of household income or $750 per year (Sec. 5000A). In the House Bill, the tax amounts to 2.5% of adjusted gross income (Sec. 59B). The individual mandate tax, however, may not completely eliminate the adverse selection problem (i.e., Krugmans death spiral of costs) because its effectiveness depends on the individuals perceiving the cost of the mandate tax as exceeding the benefits received by simply sitting out of the market until one gets sick.
Even if the individual mandate reduces the adverse selection problem caused by the ban of risk-adjustments in pricing and the requirement of guaranteed issue, it does nothing to alleviate the increase in costs placed on low risk individuals. Eliminating or reducing risk-based price adjustment for risk-factors such as age and health status will significantly increase premiums for younger and healthier people, while reducing premiums for the older and less healthy For example, suppose Insurance Company insures A and B. Insurance companies are in the business of paying out less in benefits than they receive in premiums. A is a young adult with statistically a much lower risk than B, who is elderly. Based on actuarial studies, Insurance Company determines it will need to charge A one hundred dollars per month and B one thousand dollars per month to remain profitable. Thus, it needs to collect $13,200 total per year. Now suppose that Insurance Company is prohibited from adjusting prices beyond a ratio of 3 to 1 based on age. Insurance Company could leave As premiums unchanged and cut Bs premiums to 3x As, or $300. This, however, would leave Insurance Company with only $4,800 in annual premiums. If its actuarial analysis were correct and annual claims equaled $13,200 per year, Insurance Company would lose $8,400. This is not feasible for Insurance Company and this option would soon leave it out of business. Accordingly, rather than reducing Bs premiums to fit As, Insurance Company could both decrease Bs premium and increase that of A to a point where it collects $13,200 and also charges B only 3x the premium of A. Under this scenario, A would end up paying $275 per month in premiums and B would pay $825. Thus, Bs premiums have decreased by 17.5% while As monthly premium has increased 275%. Ultimately, Insurance Company collects the same amount but A has in effect subsidized the risk of B. This is what is poised to happen with the enactment of these mandates, significantly decreasing the costs of unhealthy and high-risk citizens at the expense of those who are healthy and low-risk.
These proposals illustrate a tradeoff between equality and efficiency (most good for the most number of people or utilitarianism). The two primary justifications for health care reform have been the equitable goal of ensuring everyone has access to care and then the economic argument that shifting the burden of uncompensated care to private payers has caused private health insurance to skyrocket. Certainly, reducing the number of those who cannot afford health care is an important policy goal of advanced societies such as the United States. This goal has been the driving factor in the push for the current Senate and House bills. Judged under this framework, it is hard to say the health care bills will not meet their goal. According to a study conducted by the RAND Corporation, the current bills would reduce the number of uninsured by roughly 56%, from nearly 49 million to 23 million by 2019 (http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/2010/RAND_RB9519.pdf).
Despite this accomplishment, I believe these bills address the countrys problem of health care in the wrong direction by focusing on accessibilitity first and costs second. The significance of health care reform hinges on the number of people cannot afford health care is the costs, which ultimately leads to decreasing accessiblity. Thus, it is the affordability that is the problem. As the President of Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield in Wisconsin recently noted, Insurance is expensive because health care is expensive. Focusing on reforming health insurance is not going to reduce the costs of health care. In other words, increasing accessibility without focusing on costs is like putting a band-aid on an amputated arm. Unfortunately, rather than seeking to increase access to health care within a framework that better aligns the American health care market so that it can properly control costs, the current proposals seek the opposite.
Before getting into my arguments against the current proposals, I wanted to discuss a general outline of how the bills seek to accomplish their desired objectives (in case you havent been keeping up with them). The current proposals accomplish increasing accessibility this by several policies. First, companies offering health insurance coverage will be required to offer insurance to every individual who so desires coverage (guaranteed issue provision). Second, insurance companies will be prohibited from pricing high-risk consumers out of the insurance market by prohibiting increased prices due to factors such as health status, medical condition, claims experience, receipt of health care, medical history, or genetic information. In addition, insurance companies are restricted from adjusting premiums beyond a Congressionally mandated range based on various other factors, such as 1.5 to 1 for tobacco use and 3 to 1 for age. Finally, after ensuring coverage is offered to all Americans, they must be able to afford them. So, prepayable tax credits (you can get them before you file your return) will be given to families with incomes up to 400% of the FPL. In addition, Medicaid will be expanded somewhere between 133% and 200% of the FPL (depending on which bill you are talking about).
Standing alone, the guaranteed issue provisions will help provide access to insurance for high-risk people who have been denied coverage by insurance companies. Similarly, the limits on price adjustments for preexisting conditions will draw more people with high expected medical costs into the market. However, reducing the ability of insureds to adjust prices based on risk ultimately increases premium prices for low risk individuals while simultaneously decreasing costs on very risky. In addition, requiring insurance companies to offer coverage while simultaneously partially eliminating their ability to adjust prices for risk brings about serious adverse selection concerns. In other words, a low risk individual armed with the knowledge that their premiums will not increase as their risk increases could simply stay out of the market by not purchasing insurance until they need care. This is because the law will prevent them from being denied coverage when they later seek to get insurance and even if they wait to get insurance until having preexisting conditino, they will not be charged a rate comenserate with their risk. This is akin to allowing a person to purchase home owners insurance after a fire and requireing the insurance company to cover them.
If left unfettered, the health insurance reform would ultimately lead to very risky consumers entering the market while less risky consumers sitting out until their risk increased. As Bams favorite economist Paul Krugman has pointed out, enacting guaranteed issue provisions and limiting risk-based pricing, with nothing else, would result in a death spiral of costs. According to Krugman, the only way to prevent the susceptibility for increased adverse selection is to keep healthy people in the risk pool, which means requiring that people purchase insurance. (Op-Ed Columnist - California Death Spiral - NYTimes.com). In fact, this is exactly what Congress and the President have done. They have included mandates in these bills that impose tax penalties for those who do not purchase qualified health insurance coverage by 2014. In the Senate Bill, the individual mandate tax equals the greater of 2% of household income or $750 per year (Sec. 5000A). In the House Bill, the tax amounts to 2.5% of adjusted gross income (Sec. 59B). The individual mandate tax, however, may not completely eliminate the adverse selection problem (i.e., Krugmans death spiral of costs) because its effectiveness depends on the individuals perceiving the cost of the mandate tax as exceeding the benefits received by simply sitting out of the market until one gets sick.
Even if the individual mandate reduces the adverse selection problem caused by the ban of risk-adjustments in pricing and the requirement of guaranteed issue, it does nothing to alleviate the increase in costs placed on low risk individuals. Eliminating or reducing risk-based price adjustment for risk-factors such as age and health status will significantly increase premiums for younger and healthier people, while reducing premiums for the older and less healthy For example, suppose Insurance Company insures A and B. Insurance companies are in the business of paying out less in benefits than they receive in premiums. A is a young adult with statistically a much lower risk than B, who is elderly. Based on actuarial studies, Insurance Company determines it will need to charge A one hundred dollars per month and B one thousand dollars per month to remain profitable. Thus, it needs to collect $13,200 total per year. Now suppose that Insurance Company is prohibited from adjusting prices beyond a ratio of 3 to 1 based on age. Insurance Company could leave As premiums unchanged and cut Bs premiums to 3x As, or $300. This, however, would leave Insurance Company with only $4,800 in annual premiums. If its actuarial analysis were correct and annual claims equaled $13,200 per year, Insurance Company would lose $8,400. This is not feasible for Insurance Company and this option would soon leave it out of business. Accordingly, rather than reducing Bs premiums to fit As, Insurance Company could both decrease Bs premium and increase that of A to a point where it collects $13,200 and also charges B only 3x the premium of A. Under this scenario, A would end up paying $275 per month in premiums and B would pay $825. Thus, Bs premiums have decreased by 17.5% while As monthly premium has increased 275%. Ultimately, Insurance Company collects the same amount but A has in effect subsidized the risk of B. This is what is poised to happen with the enactment of these mandates, significantly decreasing the costs of unhealthy and high-risk citizens at the expense of those who are healthy and low-risk.