Inside the Numbers - UCF 2019 and 2020

#1
DownNDirty

DownNDirty

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#1
2019 UCF Schedule (SRS Ratings are overall team ranks out of 130 teams in D1)

62-0 win over Florida A&M (Non-Major)
48-14 win over Florida Atlantic (11-3) SRS 31 out of 130
45-27 win over Stanford (4-8) SRS 80
35-34 Loss to Pitt (8-5) SRS 62
56-21 win over UCONN (2-10) SRS 124
27-24 Loss to Cinci (11-3) SRS 24
41-28 win over ECU (4-8) SRS 114
63-21 win over Temple (8-5) SRS 60
44-29 win over Houston (4-8) SRS 71
34-31 Loss vs Tulsa (4-8) SRS 63
34-31 win over Tulane (7-6) SRS 44
34-7 win over South Florida (4-8) SRS 89
48-25 win over Marshall (8-5) SRS 73

Teams they beat combined record: 52-61

2020 UCF Schedule (SRS Ratings are overall team ranks out of 127 teams in D1)

49-41 win over Georgia Tech (3-7) SRS 95
51-28 win over ECU (3-6) SRS 93
34-26 Loss to Tulsa (6-3) SRS 40
50-49 Loss to Memphis (8-3) SRS 76
51-34 win over Tulane (6-6) SRS 73
44-21 win over Houston (3-5) SRS 84
38-13 win over Temple (1-6) SRS 122
36-33 Loss to Cinci (9-1) SRS 10
58-46 win over South Florida (1-8) SRS 115
49-23 Loss to BYU (11-1) SRS 11

Teams they beat combined record: 17-38 and beat no team with a winning record

Worst loss in the last 2 years to a 4-8 Tulsa team in 2019

Best win in last 2 years over Florida Atlantic who finished 11-3 in 2019 and rated #31

Smells a lot like Butch Jones to me. He seems to have good offenses but the teams they play are pretty subpar. They have played three games against what I would consider GOOD teams in the past two years. In those games they lost to Cinci 27-24 in 2019 and 36-33 in 2020 and they got obliterated 49-23 by BYU in the bowl game this year. The same BYU team who got beat by Coastal Carolina and Jamey Chadwell this year in what was one of the best games all year long.
 
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#2
#2
In no universe is Heupel a better hire than Chadwell (who is from east Tennessee and currently making 375 K and wasn't contacted-not sure if any of that's been mentioned).
 
#3
#3
Also, when Danny White said he hired a coach with some swagger and cockiness that the players asked for. Yeah, I'm not seeing it. He straight up ignored what they told him and hired his guy.
 
#7
#7
Unconditional Surrender said:
In no universe is Heupel a better hire than Chadwell (who is from east Tennessee and currently making 375 K and wasn't contacted-not sure if any of that's been mentioned).
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I like Chadwell a lot but nothing I’ve seen tells me he’s better than JH. He may end up being better but nothing that I’ve seen tells me he is right now.
 
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#8
#8
DownNDirty said:
2019 UCF Schedule (SRS Ratings are overall team ranks out of 130 teams in D1)

62-0 win over Florida A&M (Non-Major)
48-14 win over Florida Atlantic (11-3) SRS 31 out of 130
45-27 win over Stanford (4-8) SRS 80
35-34 Loss to Pitt (8-5) SRS 62
56-21 win over UCONN (2-10) SRS 124
27-24 Loss to Cinci (11-3) SRS 24
41-28 win over ECU (4-8) SRS 114
63-21 win over Temple (8-5) SRS 60
44-29 win over Houston (4-8) SRS 71
34-31 Loss vs Tulsa (4-8) SRS 63
34-31 win over Tulane (7-6) SRS 44
34-7 win over South Florida (4-8) SRS 89
48-25 win over Marshall (8-5) SRS 73

Teams they beat combined record: 52-61

2020 UCF Schedule (SRS Ratings are overall team ranks out of 127 teams in D1)

49-41 win over Georgia Tech (3-7) SRS 95
51-28 win over ECU (3-6) SRS 93
34-26 Loss to Tulsa (6-3) SRS 40
50-49 Loss to Memphis (8-3) SRS 76
51-34 win over Tulane (6-6) SRS 73
44-21 win over Houston (3-5) SRS 84
38-13 win over Temple (1-6) SRS 122
36-33 Loss to Cinci (9-1) SRS 10
58-46 win over South Florida (1-8) SRS 115
49-23 Loss to BYU (11-1) SRS 11

Teams they beat combined record: 17-38 and beat no team with a winning record

Worst loss in the last 2 years to a 4-8 Tulsa team in 2019

Best win in last 2 years over Florida Atlantic who finished 11-3 in 2019 and rated #31

Smells a lot like Butch Jones to me. He seems to have good offenses but the teams they play are pretty subpar. They have played three games against what I would consider GOOD teams in the past two years. In those games they lost to Cinci 27-24 in 2019 and 36-33 in 2020 and they got obliterated 49-23 by BYU in the bowl game this year. The same BYU team who got beat by Coastal Carolina and Jamey Chadwell this year in what was one of the best games all year long.
Click to expand...
The better question to me is .... did Tennessee have a team in the past three (3) years that could have beat UCF. Maybe the team in Pruitt's second season, at the end. I am also trying to figure out any team we beat that was impressive during that same stretch.
 
#11
#11
I imagine Chadwell and Heupel on about the same tier. I think Chadwell motivates and prepares his players very well. They have a lot of fun and win while doing it. We need that excitement in the locker room and program in general. Hopefully Heupel can bring that level of high energy and excitement, though his presser didn't allude to any sort of high energy.
 
#13
#13
That's not very far inside the numbers... basically just scores posted. Can you factor in that UCF had 10 players opt out due to COVID, including three top defensive players? Two QBs missed the season completely. Then midseason, they lost 4 more defensive players.
 
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#15
#15
DownNDirty said:
2019 UCF Schedule (SRS Ratings are overall team ranks out of 130 teams in D1)

62-0 win over Florida A&M (Non-Major)
48-14 win over Florida Atlantic (11-3) SRS 31 out of 130
45-27 win over Stanford (4-8) SRS 80
35-34 Loss to Pitt (8-5) SRS 62
56-21 win over UCONN (2-10) SRS 124
27-24 Loss to Cinci (11-3) SRS 24
41-28 win over ECU (4-8) SRS 114
63-21 win over Temple (8-5) SRS 60
44-29 win over Houston (4-8) SRS 71
34-31 Loss vs Tulsa (4-8) SRS 63
34-31 win over Tulane (7-6) SRS 44
34-7 win over South Florida (4-8) SRS 89
48-25 win over Marshall (8-5) SRS 73

Teams they beat combined record: 52-61

2020 UCF Schedule (SRS Ratings are overall team ranks out of 127 teams in D1)

49-41 win over Georgia Tech (3-7) SRS 95
51-28 win over ECU (3-6) SRS 93
34-26 Loss to Tulsa (6-3) SRS 40
50-49 Loss to Memphis (8-3) SRS 76
51-34 win over Tulane (6-6) SRS 73
44-21 win over Houston (3-5) SRS 84
38-13 win over Temple (1-6) SRS 122
36-33 Loss to Cinci (9-1) SRS 10
58-46 win over South Florida (1-8) SRS 115
49-23 Loss to BYU (11-1) SRS 11

Teams they beat combined record: 17-38 and beat no team with a winning record

Worst loss in the last 2 years to a 4-8 Tulsa team in 2019

Best win in last 2 years over Florida Atlantic who finished 11-3 in 2019 and rated #31

Smells a lot like Butch Jones to me. He seems to have good offenses but the teams they play are pretty subpar. They have played three games against what I would consider GOOD teams in the past two years. In those games they lost to Cinci 27-24 in 2019 and 36-33 in 2020 and they got obliterated 49-23 by BYU in the bowl game this year. The same BYU team who got beat by Coastal Carolina and Jamey Chadwell this year in what was one of the best games all year long.
Click to expand...

Not bad for a team without one single four or five star athlete on the entire roster and with ten starters opting out prior to the 2020 season. Not saying he is going to be great, but having the #2 offense in the nation in 2019 and taking Mizzou's anemic offense from 124th to 8th is very impressive.
 
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#17
#17
37620VOL said:
That's not very far inside the numbers... basically just scores posted. Can you factor in that UCF had 10 players opt out due to COVID, including three top defensive players? Two QBs missed the season completely. Then midseason, they lost 4 more defensive players.
Click to expand...

Sounds like our transfer portal.
 
#18
#18
UCF isn't exactly a talent haven. Recruiting classes are typically ranked in the 60s and 70s there. Hence, it's not really a huge surprise that they'd have trouble competing with teams with much superior talent. Even Cincinnati fits into that category. Cincy typically gets top 40ish classes.

The real question is how well can Heupel recruit now that he has an elite foundation to recruit off of? You can get top 10, top 5 classes at Tennessee if you're a good recruiter. I don't really have a sense of how Heupel will do with recruiting. The guy can coach, but I have no idea how well he can recruit.
 
#19
#19
DownNDirty said:
2019 UCF Schedule (SRS Ratings are overall team ranks out of 130 teams in D1)

62-0 win over Florida A&M (Non-Major)
48-14 win over Florida Atlantic (11-3) SRS 31 out of 130
45-27 win over Stanford (4-8) SRS 80
35-34 Loss to Pitt (8-5) SRS 62
56-21 win over UCONN (2-10) SRS 124
27-24 Loss to Cinci (11-3) SRS 24
41-28 win over ECU (4-8) SRS 114
63-21 win over Temple (8-5) SRS 60
44-29 win over Houston (4-8) SRS 71
34-31 Loss vs Tulsa (4-8) SRS 63
34-31 win over Tulane (7-6) SRS 44
34-7 win over South Florida (4-8) SRS 89
48-25 win over Marshall (8-5) SRS 73

Teams they beat combined record: 52-61

2020 UCF Schedule (SRS Ratings are overall team ranks out of 127 teams in D1)

49-41 win over Georgia Tech (3-7) SRS 95
51-28 win over ECU (3-6) SRS 93
34-26 Loss to Tulsa (6-3) SRS 40
50-49 Loss to Memphis (8-3) SRS 76
51-34 win over Tulane (6-6) SRS 73
44-21 win over Houston (3-5) SRS 84
38-13 win over Temple (1-6) SRS 122
36-33 Loss to Cinci (9-1) SRS 10
58-46 win over South Florida (1-8) SRS 115
49-23 Loss to BYU (11-1) SRS 11

Teams they beat combined record: 17-38 and beat no team with a winning record

Worst loss in the last 2 years to a 4-8 Tulsa team in 2019

Best win in last 2 years over Florida Atlantic who finished 11-3 in 2019 and rated #31

Smells a lot like Butch Jones to me. He seems to have good offenses but the teams they play are pretty subpar. They have played three games against what I would consider GOOD teams in the past two years. In those games they lost to Cinci 27-24 in 2019 and 36-33 in 2020 and they got obliterated 49-23 by BYU in the bowl game this year. The same BYU team who got beat by Coastal Carolina and Jamey Chadwell this year in what was one of the best games all year long.
Click to expand...
They played who was on the schedule. I don't think the coach gets to choose who they play. UT got obliterated by a 4 win Kentucky team in 2020.
 
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#21
#21
DiderotsGhost said:
UCF isn't exactly a talent haven. Recruiting classes are typically ranked in the 60s and 70s there. Hence, it's not really a huge surprise that they'd have trouble competing with teams with much superior talent. Even Cincinnati fits into that category. Cincy typically gets top 40ish classes.

The real question is how well can Heupel recruit now that he has an elite foundation to recruit off of? You can get top 10, top 5 classes at Tennessee if you're a good recruiter. I don't really have a sense of how Heupel will do with recruiting. The guy can coach, but I have no idea how well he can recruit.
Click to expand...
If he can coach and generate wins, that recruits by itself. Winning teams always get the best players. Getting the best players does not always translate in wins. Butch proved that.
 
#22
#22
You can only play who is on your schedule, and who is in your conference. I’m going to go on a limb and say Clemson’s wins over the past few years look pretty similar, but no one questions Dabo for it.

Meanwhile, we’ve been taking top 10-15 classes the last few years and have losses to Vandy, South Carolina, Georgia State, a depleted Arkansas under a first year coach, etc etc. 16 double digit losses, and we’re mad because Heupel is winning the games he’s supposed to win.
 
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#24
#24
37620VOL said:
That's not very far inside the numbers... basically just scores posted. Can you factor in that UCF had 10 players opt out due to COVID, including three top defensive players? Two QBs missed the season completely. Then midseason, they lost 4 more defensive players.
Click to expand...

How many players did all of the other teams lose also? Maybe someone else will give a dissertation. Butch Jones was a trumpet humping moron that I called out from day one as being completely FOS and got lambasted on here. I don't think Heupel is a bad person and I'm sure he's a much better X and O coach than Jones but I just feel like his floor next year is about 3 wins and ceiling is 5. They'll score points and at least have some highlight reel plays. If we don't get absolutely hammered with NCAA sanctions he may improve year two and win 6 games or so, maybe 7 by year 3, and his ceiling here will be 7 or 8 IMO.
 
#25
#25
Enki_Amenra said:
I believe he was vetted, but never interviewed.
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According to Finebaum, Tennessee did explore that option but it doesn’t sound like AD Danny White was very impressed with Chadwell during the search for a new leader on Rocky Top.
“I’m told they did some conversations with Jamey Chadwell, who was everyone’s favorite, and they came away underwhelmed,” Finebaum offered up on the podcast.
 
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