Insightful analysis of Milton's play last year

#1

kamoshika

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#1
Quarterback Joe Milton will enter Tennessee spring football practice as either promising or unproven, depending on your perspective of his performance last season. As a backup, Milton’s passer rating (204.3) was almost perfect and even better than starter Hendon Hooker (175.5), who ranked second in the nation. But Milton racked up big numbers in blowout wins against reserve players for inferior teams. So where does the truth lie between those two perspectives? The answers come by meticulously reviewing every snap of his 2022 season.

...Milton was 53-of-82 passing, meaning he had 29 incompletions. But 17 of those were catchable passes either dropped or broken up by a defenders or they were batted down at the line of scrimmage. The remaining 12 incompletions were errant throws. Seven passes were too far on vertical routes, one was too high on a goal-line route, one was too hard on a short route, one was behind the receiver on a timing route, one was too low and only one pass should’ve been intercepted. Milton tossed 10 TD passes and no interceptions.

...Believe it or not, Milton was reasonably accurate on deep passes. He was on target on 15 of 22 pass attempts (68%) on long vertical routes. One of those accurate passes was dropped and three others were broken up defenders, but those were not Milton’s fault. So why did it seem like overthrown deep passes were a bigger problem for Milton? It’s because they came in bunches.
I watched Joe Milton’s 191 plays for Tennessee football. What we learned and why it matters
 
#2
#2
12 errant throws of 82 = 14.6%....against inferior talent/backups perhaps. 1.5 out of 10 passes = "errant". Huummmm....

He seemed to do well against Clemson (mostly). Perhaps spring, summer 7v7 and fall as "the guy" will be the difference in '22 and '23. I hope so.
 
#3
#3
I mean, most incompletions are errant. Sure, you’re going to get drops and “catchable” balls that are missed, but most of them, by the mere fact that the pass is incomplete, means the pass was errant. Either too far in front, too behind, too high, too low etc.

A real good QB is completing ~68% of his passes, which means 32% are more than likely errant. You want to pad the stats to make up for drops/catchable balls/throwaways and call it 25%? That’s fine.

People just seem to want to put more negative emphasis on Joe Milton’s incompletions as if most are any different than the incompletions you see any other game by any other QB.
 
#5
#5
In the Orange Bowl, I noticed he took a couple of unnecessary sacks - just didn't get rid of the ball. And he doesn't run or try to evade a rush with a lot of confidence. But I think all those things can be fixed with practice and repetitions. I think Joe has a very good chance of having a great season for us.
 
#7
#7
I mean, most incompletions are errant. Sure, you’re going to get drops and “catchable” balls that are missed, but most of them, by the mere fact that the pass is incomplete, means the pass was errant. Either too far in front, too behind, too high, too low etc.

A real good QB is completing ~68% of his passes, which means 32% are more than likely errant. You want to pad the stats to make up for drops/catchable balls/throwaways and call it 25%? That’s fine.

People just seem to want to put more negative emphasis on Joe Milton’s incompletions as if most are any different than the incompletions you see any other game by any other QB.
Agreed. Context is more important. Does he have more errant passes on 3rd and short, do his bad passes extraordinarily kill drives? Etc. curious to watch him next season
 
#8
#8
I mean, most incompletions are errant. Sure, you’re going to get drops and “catchable” balls that are missed, but most of them, by the mere fact that the pass is incomplete, means the pass was errant. Either too far in front, too behind, too high, too low etc.

A real good QB is completing ~68% of his passes, which means 32% are more than likely errant. You want to pad the stats to make up for drops/catchable balls/throwaways and call it 25%? That’s fine.

People just seem to want to put more negative emphasis on Joe Milton’s incompletions as if most are any different than the incompletions you see any other game by any other QB.

THE big unknown, is how many of these errant throws were made to NOT put the ball in harm's way. It seems clear that CJH does not want his guys forcing it into tight windows or maybe even UNKNOWNS if during your read you cannot identify where the defenders are. Would love to see a breakdown of these errant passes by down. Would love to see the numbers when vision is impacted by exceptional defensive pressure. Big difference in risk acceptance between 1st down and fourth down. Gunslingers are not what CJH appears to want, regardless of arm talent.
 
#9
#9
I mean, most incompletions are errant. Sure, you’re going to get drops and “catchable” balls that are missed, but most of them, by the mere fact that the pass is incomplete, means the pass was errant. Either too far in front, too behind, too high, too low etc.

A real good QB is completing ~68% of his passes, which means 32% are more than likely errant. You want to pad the stats to make up for drops/catchable balls/throwaways and call it 25%? That’s fine.

People just seem to want to put more negative emphasis on Joe Milton’s incompletions as if most are any different than the incompletions you see any other game by any other QB.

THE big unknown, is how many of these errant throws were made to NOT put the ball in harm's way. It seems clear that CJH does not want his guys forcing it into tight windows or maybe even UNKNOWNS if during your read you cannot identify where the defenders are. Would love to see a breakdown of these errant passes by down. Would love to see the numbers when there is a clean pocket vs excessive pressure. Big difference in risk acceptance between 1st down and fourth down and other game conditions. Gunslingers are not what CJH appears to want, regardless of arm talent. Not a clue what coach teaches about when to go for 50/50 balls. Lots to process back there. Some portion of these errant passes are "live to fight another day" passes. Those on the sideline and in the booth know what's up.
 
#10
#10
I just hope he doesn't let criticism bore into his mind and result in him becoming a timid QB who plays with uncertainty and fear.
 
#14
#14
I just hope he doesn't let criticism bore into his mind and result in him becoming a timid QB who plays with uncertainty and fear.
I think there’s definitely been some issues mentally with him. I thought he took a huge step against Clemson though.

I’m hoping he gets some significant help on the defensive side of the ball though to make things easier on him and the offense, take a little pressure off. I do think it’s a huge mental burden for a qb to know they have to win the game for this team; I mean the margin of error was so small with this defense at times last year for Hooker. That has to be in your head some.
 
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#15
#15
In the Orange Bowl, I noticed he took a couple of unnecessary sacks - just didn't get rid of the ball. And he doesn't run or try to evade a rush with a lot of confidence. But I think all those things can be fixed with practice and repetitions. I think Joe has a very good chance of having a great season for us.
I saw during the Orange Bowl, a couple of times the defense came with a bull rush, Milton tried to escape, but the defender pushed his guy back and cut off any escape avenue for Milton. Actually sacked Milton while still engaged with the O lineman. I do think he needs to run with more authority when it's a designed quarterback run, or the defense forces him out of the pocket.
 
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#16
#16
I think there’s definitely been some issues mentally with him. I thought he took a huge step against Clemson though.

I’m hoping he gets some significant help on the defensive side of the ball though to make things easier on him and the offense, take a little pressure off. I do think it’s a huge mental burden for a qb to know they have to win the game for this team; I mean the margin of error was so small with this defense at times last year for Hooker. That has to be in your head some.
I was impressed with his poise in the pocket in the OB. He really showed some ability to scan the D and find the open guy. Some of his throws were 2nd and 3rd reads. I was shocked tbh because I hadn't really seen him do that consistently.

I really think it will come down to the OL and whether they can give him time to set up in the pocket. If they can also get the Rbs in space, it will only open up the playbook even more.

Of course they need the D to take a huge step forward, especially on the backend. That would help tremendously since I don't know if they will be able to average 49 ppg again.
 
#17
#17
I saw during the Orange Bowl, a couple of times the defense came with a bull rush, Milton tried to escape, but the defender pushed his guy back and cut off any escape avenue for Milton. Actually sacked Milton while still engaged with the O lineman. I do think he needs to run with more authority when it's a designed quarterback run, or the defense forces him out of the pocket.

Wrong as I may be, when I look at the game, I think he was instructed to primarily be a game manager to minimize mistakes that could cost the game. I think JoMil is at his core, a gunslinger, but he listens to Heupel, hence played in a more subdued manner than he would otherwise. Clemson, or at least their coach, was overconfident. Knowing our two biggest weapons were not in the game, they opted to bring the heat on Joe. But both the RBs, and the WRs made them pay for it. That plus JoMil's accuracy, Dabo simply got out schemed.
 
#18
#18
In the Orange Bowl, I noticed he took a couple of unnecessary sacks - just didn't get rid of the ball. And he doesn't run or try to evade a rush with a lot of confidence. But I think all those things can be fixed with practice and repetitions. I think Joe has a very good chance of having a great season for us.
I think in the Clemson game, there wasn't a proven backup so he didn't take as many "risks" when it comes to running during a broken pass play. With a full offseason as "the guy" and with having a player like Nico as his backup, I think that we will see some more successful scrambles.
 
#19
#19
IMHO, Milton's success will hinge on Heupel very slightly adjusting the O to incorporate more throws across the middle and medium depth routes. He seems pretty deadly when he can throw it on a line. More plays per drive even at the sacrifice of yds/play might also help the D some.
 
#20
#20
IMHO, Milton's success will hinge on Heupel very slightly adjusting the O to incorporate more throws across the middle and medium depth routes. He seems pretty deadly when he can throw it on a line. More plays per drive even at the sacrifice of yds/play might also help the D some.
He def has a better touch when throwing on a rope
 
#21
#21
In the Orange Bowl, I noticed he took a couple of unnecessary sacks - just didn't get rid of the ball. And he doesn't run or try to evade a rush with a lot of confidence. But I think all those things can be fixed with practice and repetitions. I think Joe has a very good chance of having a great season for us.

Wait so 2 different times he was anointed as starter and half a decade playing football in college isn't enuff"Practice and Repetitions"??Naw I give him the benefit of the doubt that Heupel has had 2 years to fix him.I don't have any faith he can take live fire on the road vs Bama and Florida etc but will see I guess,I really hope I'm wrong...
 
#22
#22
Wait so 2 different times he was anointed as starter and half a decade playing football in college isn't enuff"Practice and Repetitions"??Naw I give him the benefit of the doubt that Heupel has had 2 years to fix him.I don't have any faith he can take live fire on the road vs Bama and Florida etc but will see I guess,I really hope I'm wrong...

Third time's a charm? But, who says he isn't mostly fixed now? He threw the ball very well in the orange bowl and in mop-up action. He hasn't been fumbling or throwing interceptions, either. But his ability to manage and escape pressure are still wanting. He's got six months to get better at that. As you say, we will see. But I'm optimistic because Heupel is his coach.
 
#23
#23
In the Orange Bowl, I noticed he took a couple of unnecessary sacks - just didn't get rid of the ball. And he doesn't run or try to evade a rush with a lot of confidence. But I think all those things can be fixed with practice and repetitions. I think Joe has a very good chance of having a great season for us.
Yes, I have confidence in his arm, but sometimes his decisions are not on a high level. Vs Clemson, on the one sack, if he zigs rather than zag he would have had an open lane for a nice gain rather than a sack. As far as throwing the ball, I expect him to have a better year than Hooker; hopefully I'm right.
 
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#24
#24
In the Orange Bowl, I noticed he took a couple of unnecessary sacks - just didn't get rid of the ball. And he doesn't run or try to evade a rush with a lot of confidence. But I think all those things can be fixed with practice and repetitions. I think Joe has a very good chance of having a great season for us.

He looked exactly like Hooker in that regard and frustrated the heck out of me. Look at Hooker being sacked last year and rarely did you see him throw it away or even attempt to throw it away. Milton tends to do this as well. Throwing it away can be a QBs best friend and our QBs don't use it enough IMO.
 
#25
#25
In the Orange Bowl, I noticed he took a couple of unnecessary sacks - just didn't get rid of the ball. And he doesn't run or try to evade a rush with a lot of confidence. But I think all those things can be fixed with practice and repetitions. I think Joe has a very good chance of having a great season for us.


I agree, however, I think he plays that way because of his size. He plays like Ben Rothlesburger in that way. Big bodied QB that isn’t afraid to get hit so they don’t always “get out of the way”. Now, if he can learn to use that arm like Ben and throw a 45 yard pass with two people hanging on him while he’s vertical two feet from his shoulder hitting the turf, then it’s watch out SEC.
 
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