Interesting Electoral Map Tool

#4
#4
cd12 said:
Whats your gut feeling bham?
Click to expand...

Right now I could see Romney slightly winning the popular vote and barely losing the electoral.

If the current trajectory holds and Romney doesn't do something stupid then I can see Romney winning - the general mood of the populace seems to be against more government programs and promises.
 
#6
#6
volinbham said:
Right now I could see Romney slightly winning the popular vote and barely losing the electoral.

If the current trajectory holds and Romney doesn't do something stupid then I can see Romney winning - the general mood of the populace seems to be against more government programs and promises.
Click to expand...
I just can't get a handle on it. Early on I didn't give the Repubs a chance in hell. now I give Mitt a puncher's chance. Do you think the ruling on Obama care will be a factor one way or another? Seems to me the Court could actually bail Obama out by ruling against it.
 
#10
#10
golfballs said:
I can't wait to play with this tool
Click to expand...

tumblr_lq0vv2FYup1qjrk8bo1_500.gif
 
#12
#12
cd12 said:
I just can't get a handle on it. Early on I didn't give the Repubs a chance in hell. now I give Mitt a puncher's chance. Do you think the ruling on Obama care will be a factor one way or another? Seems to me the Court could actually bail Obama out by ruling against it.
Click to expand...

I could argue Obamacare either way so I'll call it a wash. To me it boils down to:

1) is there any positive change in the economy? If not; advantage Romney

2) does Obama have a strategy - so far his message is "more of the same" and "the other guy is dangerous". Coupled with #1 if he doesn't put forward some plausible vision; advantage Romney

3) will Republicans muck things up by 1) throwing social issues in, 2) over pressing the Walker win. If so; advantage Obama.

4) will opposition research and/or the press really hammer Romney? If so; advantage Obama.

As long as Romney looks like a safe choice to Independents I can see him winning and possibly winning by 3% or more. The concern is that blue states may turn purply-blue and red states get really red but in the end there are more blue than red (even though Romney has more votes).
 
#14
#14
The real unknown is the 10-15% of the percent of the populace that hasn't weighed in. Even in blue leaning states, Obama is below 50%.

I have to wonder how good the polling data is when you declare a state leaning based on neither candidate hitting 50%.
 
#16
#16
volinbham said:
I could argue Obamacare either way so I'll call it a wash. To me it boils down to:

1) is there any positive change in the economy? If not; advantage Romney

2) does Obama have a strategy - so far his message is "more of the same" and "the other guy is dangerous". Coupled with #1 if he doesn't put forward some plausible vision; advantage Romney

3) will Republicans muck things up by 1) throwing social issues in, 2) over pressing the Walker win. If so; advantage Obama.

4) will opposition research and/or the press really hammer Romney? If so; advantage Obama.

As long as Romney looks like a safe choice to Independents I can see him winning and possibly winning by 3% or more. The concern is that blue states may turn purply-blue and red states get really red but in the end there are more blue than red (even though Romney has more votes).
Click to expand...
I think this is why the House isn't going all in on the Fast and Furious scandel as well. The thing that gets me and I may be a fool for saying so but I see a scenario where Romney wins by a larger margain.
 
#18
#18
cd12 said:
I think this is why the House isn't going all in on the Fast and Furious scandel as well. The thing that gets me and I may be a fool for saying so but I see a scenario where Romney wins by a larger margain.
Click to expand...

If you choose the "2004 actual results" on the map thingy it puts Romney up big.

I can see it too if the trajectory stays the same. if Romney isn't too scary to I's I can see them breaking hard for him and a very red map.

He needs a non-threatening, competent VP pick. I think the base is on board enough and the ground game looks pretty good with the base. Need to win the I's.
 
#19
#19
Romney will probably steal a state from Obama. It could easily be CO, but MI and NH are possible. NJ will be interesting
 
#20
#20
June 2012 PurplePoll | Purple Strategies

Our latest PurplePoll finds Romney continuing to improve his position, as the race remains extremely tight. Romney is chipping away at Obama’s lead, but still trails by 2 points across the Purple electorate. Romney has taken a lead in Ohio and Florida. Obama now holds leads in the other two Purple Predictor states: Virginia and Colorado.
Click to expand...
 
#22
#22
volinbham said:
If you choose the "2004 actual results" on the map thingy it puts Romney up big.

I can see it too if the trajectory stays the same. if Romney isn't too scary to I's I can see them breaking hard for him and a very red map.

He needs a non-threatening, competent VP pick. I think the base is on board enough and the ground game looks pretty good with the base. Need to win the I's.
Click to expand...
Do you think Axlerod's comments are because they fear a Rubio choice or embrace it?
 
#25
#25
I will say, what's important to distinguish is between polls of registered voters vs. likely voters.

the likely voter poll is definitely a better indicator. these tend to skew towards Romney
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top