Interesting Stats On The Game For The Elite 8

#1
JohnWardForever

JohnWardForever

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#1
9
pastedimage1679344625599v1.png

Florida Atlantic
4
pastedimage1679344625600v2.png

Tennessee
Florida Atlantic
  • Florida Atlantic is 1-1 ATS in March Madness, but overall, it’s 22-11-1 ATS this season, the second-best ATS win percentage for any team left in March Madness (behind Kansas State).
  • The Owls have won nine consecutive games straight up entering the Sweet 16 against Tennessee, which is just on a short two-game win streak after losing in the SEC Tournament. Since 2005, teams on a nine-plus game SU win streak, facing a team on just a two-game win streak in the Sweet 16 are 18-7 ATS.
  • Florida Atlantic is 33-3 this season. No team seeded higher than a 5 has entered the Sweet 16 with a better win percentage all-time. Their nine-game SU win streak is the second-longest left in the tournament behind Gonzaga’s 11-game SU win streak.
Tennessee
+ Teams love to beat Duke, but what they do after beating Duke sometimes is the question. Since 2012, teams are 2-6 SU and ATS the round after beating Duke in the tournament.
+ The Volunteers defense is top-notch. This is the first time a Rick Barnes team allowed under 60 points in consecutive tourney games since 2006 with Texas in Round 64 and Round 32. That Texas team went to the Elite Eight.
+ Both Tennessee wins went under the total in the NCAA Tournament. In Barnes’ last three trips to the Sweet 16, all three games went over the total.
+ Rick Barnes officially got off the schneid with the win and cover over Duke. Barnes is 20-33 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, with a near-even 27-26 straight-up record.
Barnes is just 3-14 ATS in his past 17 NCAA Tournament games, including games with Tennessee and Texas. That makes him the least profitable coach ATS in the tourney, per our Bet Labs database (since 2005).
  • As listed above, Barnes struggles ATS on long prep. He’s the only coach of the 16 remaining in the field to be below .500 ATS on 4-6 days rest, which is the prep between the Round of 32 and Sweet 16 games
 
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#3
#3
As someone who very much loves statistics, I find those items very interesting. Lucky for us, I would say all of those data points are non significant (still interesting though).

I would be very interested in the statistical significance of win streaks coming into the tournament (aka, how “hot” the team is). Based on my observations and likely biased opinion, there seems to be very little correlation between how hot the team is and what the outcome is. For example, us last year and Duke this year. Either way, TV analysis and journalist often reference it as a big deal but it’s seems to have zero relevance to the predictions of who wins.
Either way, thank you for the write up.
 
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#4
#4
ut sec t, ncaa t scoring

olivier 4-55, 27 vs duke
vescovi 4-48 3 games in double figures
mayshack 42 2 vs duke
jjj 4-37 20 vs ole miss
key 4-34 16 vs mizzou
phillips 4-23 18 in sec t
aidoo 4-20 16 in ncaa t
uros 4-11 plus blood, bruises
awaka 4-4 muscle, boards
edwards 1-0
 
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#5
#5
JohnWardForever said:
9
pastedimage1679344625599v1.png

Florida Atlantic
4
pastedimage1679344625600v2.png

Tennessee
Florida Atlantic
  • Florida Atlantic is 1-1 ATS in March Madness, but overall, it’s 22-11-1 ATS this season, the second-best ATS win percentage for any team left in March Madness (behind Kansas State).
  • The Owls have won nine consecutive games straight up entering the Sweet 16 against Tennessee, which is just on a short two-game win streak after losing in the SEC Tournament. Since 2005, teams on a nine-plus game SU win streak, facing a team on just a two-game win streak in the Sweet 16 are 18-7 ATS.
  • Florida Atlantic is 33-3 this season. No team seeded higher than a 5 has entered the Sweet 16 with a better win percentage all-time. Their nine-game SU win streak is the second-longest left in the tournament behind Gonzaga’s 11-game SU win streak.
Tennessee
+ Teams love to beat Duke, but what they do after beating Duke sometimes is the question. Since 2012, teams are 2-6 SU and ATS the round after beating Duke in the tournament.
+ The Volunteers defense is top-notch. This is the first time a Rick Barnes team allowed under 60 points in consecutive tourney games since 2006 with Texas in Round 64 and Round 32. That Texas team went to the Elite Eight.
+ Both Tennessee wins went under the total in the NCAA Tournament. In Barnes’ last three trips to the Sweet 16, all three games went over the total.
+ Rick Barnes officially got off the schneid with the win and cover over Duke. Barnes is 20-33 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, with a near-even 27-26 straight-up record.
Barnes is just 3-14 ATS in his past 17 NCAA Tournament games, including games with Tennessee and Texas. That makes him the least profitable coach ATS in the tourney, per our Bet Labs database (since 2005).
  • As listed above, Barnes struggles ATS on long prep. He’s the only coach of the 16 remaining in the field to be below .500 ATS on 4-6 days rest, which is the prep between the Round of 32 and Sweet 16 games
Click to expand...
Comparing us to the spread means zero to me. That’s an important stat for gamblers but doesn’t reflect anything about our team IMO
 
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#9
#9
walkenvol said:
Comparing us to the spread means zero to me. That’s an important stat for gamblers but doesn’t reflect anything about our team IMO
Click to expand...


nnessee
+ Teams love to beat Duke, but what they do after beating Duke sometimes is the question. Since 2012, teams are 2-6 SU and ATS the round after beating Duke in the tournament . OK Then. Incidentally , SU means to win or lose.
 
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#11
#11
This ‘losses after beating Duke’ is an iffy metric imo. I can see how some teams get it in their heads that they’ve peaked after knocking off a perennial power like the Blue Devils. We may have fallen victim to something like this last year after winning the SECT for the first time in forever, then putting up a stinker against MI in the second round. Until this team proves otherwise though, I’m going to choose “the assurance of things hoped for and the conviction of things not seen.” In other words, I’m going to have faith that this team has found that March magic that only a few teams find. We routinely beat “powerhouse” programs as you know; we don’t have to think of Duke as the crest of the mountain like some teams might. We’re not finished. Vols forever, GO BIG ORANGE!!! 🏀
 
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#12
#12
4-Seeds
The 4-seeds might be the trickiest to pick. It’s likely that one will lose in the first round, but 3 of the last 11 Final 4’s included a 4-seed. The only thing you can be fairly certain of is that we won’t see one in the championship game, since it’s only happened three times.
Overall Performance
  • 117 (of 148) 4-seeds advanced to the Second Round
  • 70 went on to the Sweet 16
  • 22 reached the Elite 8
  • 13 reached the Final 4
  • 3 made the championship game
  • 1 won the tournament
Performance Over the Last 10 Tournament
  • 32 (of 40) advanced to the Second Round
  • 24 went on to the Sweet 16
  • 7 reached the Elite 8
  • 3 reached the Final 4
  • 1 made it to the championship game and lost
9-Seeds
The poor 9-seeds. First they play against a team (the 8-seed in their region) that should be a fairly even match. Not an easy win and there’s no fanfare if they do win. Then, if they win, they have to face the 1-seed in the very next round. Only the 13-16 seeds reach the Sweet 16 less frequently than the 8- and 9-seeds. In fact, 9-seeds only have two more Sweet 16 appearances than 13-seeds. Overall, 9-seeds have had a slight upper hand in their series against the 8-seeds. In the last decade, however, the trend has reversed and the 8-seeds have been a little bit more successful. In an evenly matched series, though, you’d expect streaks and trends to go back and forth a little.
Overall Performance
  • 77 (of 148) advanced to the Second Round
  • 8 went on to the Sweet 16
  • 5 reached the Elite 8
  • 2 reached the Final 4
Performance Over the Last 10 Tournaments
  • 19 (of 40) advanced to the Second Round
  • 3 went on to the Sweet 16
  • 3 reached the Elite 8
  • 1 made it to the Final 4
BracketResearch.com | The internet's best Data Analytics and Predictions for the NCAA Basketball Tournament
 
#13
#13
All Vol! said:
This ‘losses after beating Duke’ is an iffy metric imo. I can see how some teams get it in their heads that they’ve peaked after knocking off a perennial power like the Blue Devils. We may have fallen victim to something like this last year after winning the SECT for the first time in forever, then putting up a stinker against MI in the second round. Until this team proves otherwise though, I’m going to choose “the assurance of things hoped for and the conviction of things not seen.” In other words, I’m going to have faith that this team has found that March magic that only a few teams find. We routinely beat “powerhouse” programs as you know; we don’t have to think of Duke as the crest of the mountain like some teams might. We’re not finished. Vols forever, GO BIG ORANGE!!! 🏀
Click to expand...
Good points. Also, usually Duke gets defeated fairly deep into the tournament, so the next round opponent for a team beating Duke would likely be expected to win at least 50% of the games. 2-6 vs a nominal 4-4 expected result is within normal statistical distribution to me. That seems like a cherry-picked stat (why just look at the last 8 games against Duke?) that means little to me.
 
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#16
#16
BallerVolFan said:
The % money and % bets are almost even right now for TN spread. If you’re into gambling and wanting to take TN, I’d wait til closer to gametime because I think that number will tick down just a little.
Click to expand...

OK. This just Copied.





(9) Florida Atlantic vs (4) Tennessee NEUTRAL
NCAA Tournament
FAU 635

35%
+4.5


9:00 PM ET
OPEN:O/U: 131TENN -6

LIVE:O/U: 130.5TENN -4.5
636 TENN

-4.5
65%
 
#17
#17
JohnWardForever said:
OK. This just Copied.





(9) Florida Atlantic vs (4) Tennessee NEUTRAL
NCAA Tournament
FAU 635

35%
+4.5


9:00 PM ET
OPEN:O/U: 131TENN -6

LIVE:O/U: 130.5TENN -4.5
636 TENN

-4.5
65%
Click to expand...
Per Caesar’s, 52% of bets are on FAU. You’re gonna get some different numbers depending on where you go to check. Overall, the public bet % and the handle is pretty tight.
 
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#19
#19
berryvol said:
Per Caesar’s, 52% of bets are on FAU. You’re gonna get some different numbers depending on where you go to check. Overall, the public bet % and the handle is pretty tight.
Click to expand...

Pregame .com (Las Vegas) is pretty well respected as to posting Vegas Numbers. Covers.com also. Those two I referenced. Both show 65% on UT.
 
#20
#20
JohnWardForever said:
Pregame .com (Las Vegas) is pretty well respected as to posting Vegas Numbers. Covers.com also. Those two I referenced. Both show 65% on UT.
Click to expand...
Those likely draw from DK, which is showing 65% ticket split and 68% handle on Tennessee, as of a few moments ago. Each book will differ some. Smart money seems to slightly lean to Tennessee thus far, which always makes me feel optimistic before a game, even though it has no bearing on outcome.
 
#21
#21
JohnWardForever said:
Pregame .com (Las Vegas) is pretty well respected as to posting Vegas Numbers. Covers.com also. Those two I referenced. Both show 65% on UT.
Click to expand...
Yes that is correct. I was referencing the % of bets on TN spread compared to the % of money on TN spread. They’re both about the same so I’m expecting more of the bigger money bettors or “sharps” to jump on a little closer to gametime.
 
#22
#22
BallerVolFan said:
Yes that is correct. I was referencing the % of bets on TN spread compared to the % of money on TN spread. They’re both about the same so I’m expecting more of the bigger money bettors or “sharps” to jump on a little closer to gametime.
Click to expand...

Currently on Pregame. Majority of Cash & Tickets are on Tennessee, and the Line moved some the right way. SO, Hopefully UT gets this!
COLLEGE BASKETBALL - THURSDAY, MARCH 23RD - NCAA TOURNAMENT - MADISON SQUARE GARDEN - NEW YORK, NY - EAST REGIONAL SEMIFINALS

SCORE
TIME
#
TEAM
OPEN
MOVES
CURRENT
CASH
TICKETS
PICKS
MY


3/23/23
8:00 PM
635
636
Florida Atlantic
Tennessee U
133½-4130½-5½-15u 64% 87% o57%75%u86%56% ----64% of the Cash, and 87% of the tickets (parlays & Teasers)


FREE PICKS (23)
BUY PICKS (0)
Pk



3/23/23
5:30 PM
637
638
Michigan State
Kansas State
-1140½-2137½u78%70%u58%67%u75%63%
 
#24
#24
I have a bad feeling about this game. But think we can win it after I watched the entirety of FAU last game vs 16 seed. God this tournament is so nerve racking. Didn’t expect to beat Duke.
 
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