Volosaurus rex
Doctorate in Volology
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Tony Basilio provided a link to an intriguing statistical analysis, one performed by Matt Hinton (So you're starting a true freshman quarterback... - Football Study Hall), which provides intriguing clues for extrapolating potential success for Josh Dobbs or, for that matter, Riley Ferguson if he had been presented the opportunity to start at quarterback. Hinton analyzed the performance of all 28 quarterbacks who, since 2008, started as true freshmen in a major conference and attempted at least 100 passes in their freshmen campaigns. A number of intriguing points emerge from his findings:
(1) In remarks pertaining to Jared Goff, who started the 2013 season as Cals quarterback, Hinton made the following comments, which, needless to say, draw a striking resemblance to the situation Justin Worley faced initially: It would help, of course, if he had been promoted in a stable system that surrounded him with veterans, instead of a rebuilding job populated overwhelmingly by other freshmen and sophomores. . . . But stable situations tend not to be desperate enough to rely on new arrivals at the most important position, which is only one reason so many freshmen thrown into the fire early on seem to spend the rest of their careers playing catch-up if they last that long.
(2) Conventional wisdom advocates that most quarterbacks will experience steady progress from year-to-year over the course of their college careers. Hinton concludes from his data, however, that this notion applies only to elite quarterbacks destined for stardom. For most quarterbacks, the concept of a steady upward trajectory with experience is thwarted by a rapid leveling-off. Most of the time, beyond a small window for improvement at the very beginning, mediocrity is a harbinger of more mediocrity. Most guys are who they're going to be almost right from the beginning.
(3) Among true freshman quarterbacks in the six major conferences over the last five years, in fact, only six have both a) Started a majority of their team's games, and b) Finished with a pass efficiency rating above 130, roughly in line with the national average. This group included Terrelle Pryor, Robert Griffin III, Braxton Miller, Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Barkley, and Perry Hills.
(4) With respect to the other twenty-one true freshman quarterbacks, Hinton emphasizes just how rarely young quarterbacks who struggle to find their niche early ever do over time. He offers the following qualifying remarks which pertain specifically to Tyler Brays freshman success: Tyler Bray's number here is misleading, as he took the reins in 2010 just in time to carve up Tennessee's traditional November feast of Memphis, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and (in this case) Ole Miss in his first four starts, teams that finished a combined 1336 that year. Given that his efficiency against SEC defenses actually fell over his last two seasons not to mention the losing records and the whole "leaving early only to go undrafted" thing. . .
What does all of this ultimately have to do with predicting potential success for Josh Dobbs? Based on comparison to other quarterbacks thrust into similar situations, we should know fairly quickly whether Josh has the proverbial right stuff. Given the fact that one could have hardly selected more difficult circumstances for his debut than to face the number one-ranked team and scoring defense on the road, the early results are, indeed, promising.
(1) In remarks pertaining to Jared Goff, who started the 2013 season as Cals quarterback, Hinton made the following comments, which, needless to say, draw a striking resemblance to the situation Justin Worley faced initially: It would help, of course, if he had been promoted in a stable system that surrounded him with veterans, instead of a rebuilding job populated overwhelmingly by other freshmen and sophomores. . . . But stable situations tend not to be desperate enough to rely on new arrivals at the most important position, which is only one reason so many freshmen thrown into the fire early on seem to spend the rest of their careers playing catch-up if they last that long.
(2) Conventional wisdom advocates that most quarterbacks will experience steady progress from year-to-year over the course of their college careers. Hinton concludes from his data, however, that this notion applies only to elite quarterbacks destined for stardom. For most quarterbacks, the concept of a steady upward trajectory with experience is thwarted by a rapid leveling-off. Most of the time, beyond a small window for improvement at the very beginning, mediocrity is a harbinger of more mediocrity. Most guys are who they're going to be almost right from the beginning.
(3) Among true freshman quarterbacks in the six major conferences over the last five years, in fact, only six have both a) Started a majority of their team's games, and b) Finished with a pass efficiency rating above 130, roughly in line with the national average. This group included Terrelle Pryor, Robert Griffin III, Braxton Miller, Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Barkley, and Perry Hills.
(4) With respect to the other twenty-one true freshman quarterbacks, Hinton emphasizes just how rarely young quarterbacks who struggle to find their niche early ever do over time. He offers the following qualifying remarks which pertain specifically to Tyler Brays freshman success: Tyler Bray's number here is misleading, as he took the reins in 2010 just in time to carve up Tennessee's traditional November feast of Memphis, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and (in this case) Ole Miss in his first four starts, teams that finished a combined 1336 that year. Given that his efficiency against SEC defenses actually fell over his last two seasons not to mention the losing records and the whole "leaving early only to go undrafted" thing. . .
What does all of this ultimately have to do with predicting potential success for Josh Dobbs? Based on comparison to other quarterbacks thrust into similar situations, we should know fairly quickly whether Josh has the proverbial right stuff. Given the fact that one could have hardly selected more difficult circumstances for his debut than to face the number one-ranked team and scoring defense on the road, the early results are, indeed, promising.
