Is Detroit rethinking green autos?

[gsvol]

Detroit unsure over the future of green cars

But despite that apparent commitment, behind the scenes, the manufacturers remain split between doubts and optimism over their potential.

Ten years after the Toyota Prius hybrid swept into the market, only about three percent of all cars sold in the United States are electric or gas-electric hybrids, said David Cole, director of the Center for Automotive Research.

"Initially there was probably some excessive exuberance about the green auto," he told AFP.

"But the economics are not attractive yet for the average consumer."
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Ford this week launched its new 2013 Fusion mid-size sedan, to be sold in gasoline, hybrid and plug-in hybrid versions.

But Mark Fields, Ford's president for the Americas, would not commit on how many would be made in each format, saying the market would set the pace.

But last year only a fraction of the nearly 250,000 Fusions sold last year were hybrids.

One challenge has been that hybrids, which have both traditional combustion engines and electric engines, are more costly because they require two powertrains, according to Michelle Krebs of auto specialists Edmunds.com.
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Sergio Marchionne, the head of Fiat and Chrysler, reiterated his doubts over the market, especially for electric cars, at the Detroit show, citing both the pricing problem and the availability of batteries.

Motortrend calls the Volt 'the flop of the year.'

 

[milohimself]

I think the success of the prius ought to erase any doubt of market viability for hybrid cars.

The problem with the volt had every bit as much to do with the fact that gm sucks at building passenger cars (which precedes union issues as well as the fact much of their design does not happen in the us) as the concept of a plug in vehicle.

 

[PKT_VOL]

I have never understood the fascination with the "plug in" cars from an environmental standpoint.

 

[milohimself]

There really isn't any. The batteries are ridiculous to make.

There are reasonable petrol alternatives on the horizon though, and they dont include massive batteries

 

[gsvol]

Obama has pumped billions into gubmit motors and continues to give huge tax deductions to buy the overpriced Volt but in the end we can count this whole iniative up as epic fail.

The doomsday clock is way overrated, common sense is way underrated.

 

[volinbham]

Some interesting info on Volt sales:

The Chevy Volt flops—Patrick Michaels - NYPOST.com

More than a third of those were fleet sales to corporations. None of these were the traditional large-fleet purchasers, i.e. Hertz, Avis and the other big rental companies. They were more like Verizon and General Electric — with GE having committed to buying 12,000 and having already purchased unspecified “hundreds,” with continued “daily” deliveries, as The Wall Street Journal reported recently.
Then there are the direct taxpayer buys. Fifty to New York City. The city of Deland, Fla., brags about buying five with an Energy Department grant. The federal General Services Administration has bought 101 so far, but President Obama has ordered it to procure only hybrid or high-mileage vehicles by 2015. (The taxpayers buy about 60,000 cars a year for GSA.)
Anyway, until GM is transparent and forthcoming about how many (or how few) Volts are selling to private individuals, we aren’t going to know.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

Motortrend calls the Volt 'the flop of the year.'

It IS a Chevy sedan. Are you shocked?

 

[lawgator1]

I cannot recall many new technologies that simply replaced the old one overnight. Takes time, experimentation, there's a cost factor initially, etc.

The cost of the cars will come down as the manufacturing capabilities improve and expand, the value will go up as the cost of gasoline rises, and the technology will become better and more attractive to the consumer as the manufacturers experiment with new approaches.

Anyone who though this wouldn't take decades was fooling themselves from the getgo.

 

[n_huffhines]

I think the success of the prius ought to erase any doubt of market viability for hybrid cars.

The problem with the volt had every bit as much to do with the fact that gm sucks at building passenger cars (which precedes union issues as well as the fact much of their design does not happen in the us) as the concept of a plug in vehicle.

It has had success, but with thousands of dollars in Federal subsidies per purchase.

 

[volinbham]

I cannot recall many new technologies that simply replaced the old one overnight. Takes time, experimentation, there's a cost factor initially, etc.

The cost of the cars will come down as the manufacturing capabilities improve and expand, the value will go up as the cost of gasoline rises, and the technology will become better and more attractive to the consumer as the manufacturers experiment with new approaches.

Anyone who though this wouldn't take decades was fooling themselves from the getgo.

The critical question here is the role of government. This is an unprecedented underwriting via govt purchases, tax credits (crazy that they are offered on such expensive cars), direct investment and associated regulatory actions.

 

[therealUT]

Can someone provide a breakdown of what percentage of electricity in America is generated by coal?

Combine that with the fact that automobiles are constructed mainly with plastics and alloys, both rely heavily on oil and energy use, and what is the net gain, from an environmental standpoint, in using a plug-in car vs. one that runs solely on gasoline? What is the net gain, from a financial standpoint, of the same?

The sad thing is a car can be sold as 'electric' and many Americans automatically assume that this is somehow more environmentally friendly. I am not sold on that conclusion, though.

Of course, this is a non-issue for me since I do not drive.

 

[n_huffhines]

I cannot recall many new technologies that simply replaced the old one overnight. Takes time, experimentation, there's a cost factor initially, etc.

The cost of the cars will come down as the manufacturing capabilities improve and expand, the value will go up as the cost of gasoline rises, and the technology will become better and more attractive to the consumer as the manufacturers experiment with new approaches.

Anyone who though this wouldn't take decades was fooling themselves from the getgo.

New technologies replace old ones when they are cost-effective and superior. Your statement is true of a lot of products government deems good enough to subsidize. I would disagree that this is normally the case with most technology. The iPhone transformed the marketplace overnight. Companies were selling 4g phones before they really had the towers to support the new technology, but it didn't take long. That's because there was true demand for it and it was viable technology. Government incentives are driving the pursuit of plug-in vehicles. That's why they mostly suck.

The first Prius was made in 1997, and 15 years later the technology hasn't even come close to replacing the old. 15 years is a long time. I'm thinking that the hybrid isn't superior technology, and that's why it hasn't replaced the old.

 

[lawgator1]

New technologies replace old ones when they are cost-effective and superior. Your statement is true of a lot of products government deems good enough to subsidize. I would disagree that this is normally the case with most technology. The iPhone transformed the marketplace overnight. Companies were selling 4g phones before they really had the towers to support the new technology, but it didn't take long. That's because there was true demand for it and it was viable technology. Government incentives are driving the pursuit of plug-in vehicles. That's why they mostly suck.

The first Prius was made in 1997, and 15 years later the technology hasn't even come close to replacing the old. 15 years is a long time. I'm thinking that the hybrid isn't superior technology, and that's why it hasn't replaced the old.

Iphone comparison is not fair. More accurate to compare to invention of cell phone versus land line.

I used to sell the first ones when I worked at a Radio Shack. Handset connected to suitcase sized power pack. Had range barely better than a $40 walkie talkie. And cost $1200. And the per minute charge was like $2.00.

Now you can get one for free, basically, and talk to anyone in the world unlimited for $50 a month. And get on the internet.

 

[volinbham]

Iphone comparison is not fair. More accurate to compare to invention of cell phone versus land line.

I used to sell the first ones when I worked at a Radio Shack. Handset connected to suitcase sized power pack. Had range barely better than a $40 walkie talkie. And cost $1200. And the per minute charge was like $2.00.

Now you can get one for free, basically, and talk to anyone in the world unlimited for $50 a month. And get on the internet.

Sure but you didn't get a $300 tax credit and the government wasn't constraining traditional telecom to promote cellphones

 

[volinbham]

Can someone provide a breakdown of what percentage of electricity in America is generated by coal?

Combine that with the fact that automobiles are constructed mainly with plastics and alloys, both rely heavily on oil and energy use, and what is the net gain, from an environmental standpoint, in using a plug-in car vs. one that runs solely on gasoline? What is the net gain, from a financial standpoint, of the same?

The sad thing is a car can be sold as 'electric' and many Americans automatically assume that this is somehow more environmentally friendly. I am not sold on that conclusion, though.

Of course, this is a non-issue for me since I do not drive.

Don't forget the battery issue - mining, production and disposal is nasty for the environment too.

 

[volinreallife]

They should think about moving away from it and move to diesel.

 

[n_huffhines]

Iphone comparison is not fair. More accurate to compare to invention of cell phone versus land line.

I used to sell the first ones when I worked at a Radio Shack. Handset connected to suitcase sized power pack. Had range barely better than a $40 walkie talkie. And cost $1200. And the per minute charge was like $2.00.

Now you can get one for free, basically, and talk to anyone in the world unlimited for $50 a month. And get on the internet.

That's not a good comparison. We currently have the infrastructure (roads) necessary to utilize hybrid technology. We did not have the infrastructure (towers) necessary to utilize cell phones.

 

[milohimself]

It has had success, but with thousands of dollars in Federal subsidies per purchase.

There hasn't been a tax credit for the Prius in years and they're still selling like mad.

Federal Tax Credits for Hybrids

Can someone provide a breakdown of what percentage of electricity in America is generated by coal?

Combine that with the fact that automobiles are constructed mainly with plastics and alloys, both rely heavily on oil and energy use, and what is the net gain, from an environmental standpoint, in using a plug-in car vs. one that runs solely on gasoline? What is the net gain, from a financial standpoint, of the same?

The sad thing is a car can be sold as 'electric' and many Americans automatically assume that this is somehow more environmentally friendly. I am not sold on that conclusion, though.

Of course, this is a non-issue for me since I do not drive.

As for the energy production, I could, but it's really more of a regional question. If I live in western Pennsylvania, then I'm sure most of my power comes from coal. Here in Oregon, most of the power is hydroelectric.

As for plug-in vs. petrol cars, consider the materials used to make the rest of the car outside of the powerplant to be more or less a wash. The difference comes down to the production of the battery, which is very large and expensive to make.

The Prius battery, for example, has a production line that spans three continents. It would cost the average consumer a few thousand dollars to purchase a replacement. Nissan has not yet released info on the replacement cost of a battery for the Leaf, but I've heard early estimates ranging from seven to ten thousand dollars.

In terms of environmental damage, measured by carbon footprint, the production of a Prius before it even hits the road has the same level of impact of a new Range Rover, after its production that's driven something like 180,000 miles (my numbers might be a bit off but it's somewhere in the ballpark).

People that buy a Prius because they want to be 'green' are just paying lip service. Jay Leno had a great quote about the Prius, "Americans want everybody else to know about the good work we all do anonymously." The Prius is lip service to environmental protection. That is, however, a concept I firmly believe in.

The best way to be friendly to the environment is to buy second hand whenever possible. Choose something with the best fuel economy possible for whatever you need, make sure you keep it in a good state of repair. Best of all, learn how to drive properly, particularly knowing how to maximize fuel efficiency.

 

[n_huffhines]

There hasn't been a tax credit for the Prius in years and they're still selling like mad.

Federal Tax Credits for Hybrids

That's weird cause the tax credit is back for 2012 ($2500). According to your link the tax credit ended Dec 31, 2010. That's only 1 year. In 2010 they sold 141 million units in the US, and in 2011 they sold 136 million units. Now the credit is back.

 

[milohimself]

Actually it said Oct 1 2007 for Toyota vehicles.

 

[n_huffhines]

Actually it said Oct 1 2007 for Toyota vehicles.

Ok, duh, now I see.

So in 2007 they sold 181,000 units in the US and then it went down to 158,000 in 2008. So a steep decline, but it's still beating the pre-2007 trends. Not sure what to make of the data. All I know is we apparently don't need tax credits, but they're coming back anyways.

 

[milohimself]

I don't see the need for the tax credits. Hybrids aren't that much friendlier to the environment, fuel use when production is considered, and they dont save the consumer all that much in the long run.

 

[PKT_VOL]

There hasn't been a tax credit for the Prius in years and they're still selling like mad.

Federal Tax Credits for Hybrids


As for the energy production, I could, but it's really more of a regional question. If I live in western Pennsylvania, then I'm sure most of my power comes from coal. Here in Oregon, most of the power is hydroelectric.

As for plug-in vs. petrol cars, consider the materials used to make the rest of the car outside of the powerplant to be more or less a wash. The difference comes down to the production of the battery, which is very large and expensive to make.

The Prius battery, for example, has a production line that spans three continents. It would cost the average consumer a few thousand dollars to purchase a replacement. Nissan has not yet released info on the replacement cost of a battery for the Leaf, but I've heard early estimates ranging from seven to ten thousand dollars.

In terms of environmental damage, measured by carbon footprint, the production of a Prius before it even hits the road has the same level of impact of a new Range Rover, after its production that's driven something like 180,000 miles (my numbers might be a bit off but it's somewhere in the ballpark).

People that buy a Prius because they want to be 'green' are just paying lip service. Jay Leno had a great quote about the Prius, "Americans want everybody else to know about the good work we all do anonymously." The Prius is lip service to environmental protection. That is, however, a concept I firmly believe in.

The best way to be friendly to the environment is to buy second hand whenever possible. Choose something with the best fuel economy possible for whatever you need, make sure you keep it in a good state of repair. Best of all, learn how to drive properly, particularly knowing how to maximize fuel efficiency.

Good post. This was what I was alluding to earlier. If that Prius was in a region with a coal power plant, it would be even worse on the environment. It quite funny that more people don't see this hypocrisy.

 

[gsvol]

I don't see the need for the tax credits. Hybrids aren't that much friendlier to the environment, fuel use when production is considered, and they dont save the consumer all that much in the long run.

I doubt they will ever be mainstream, mostly just a novelty.

 

[milohimself]

I assume you're talking about plug-ins, hybrids are already very mainstream