Is Iran facing a civil war??

[gsvol]

It is becoming increasingly clear that the opposition protests that have rocked Iran over the past month have seriously undermined the credibility of the regime.

Above article by Abbas Milani, distinguished scholar and author of numerous books and articles dealing with Iran.

Excerpts from Milani's article:

In the last month, four of Iran's highest ranking ayatollahs have issued statements defiantly declared the current regime "illegitimate."

Iranian Nobel Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has asked the international community to refuse to negotiate with the Ahmadinejad presidency until the crackdown on opposition ends. And two of the most important groups within the Shi'ite clerical establishment--Majma' Rohaniyat-e Mobarez and Majma' Moddaresin o Mohaggegin Hozeye Elmiye Qom--have issued statements doubting the legitimacy of the election.
.....

In addition, as many reformists have warned, the republican elements of the 1979 constitution are in serious jeopardy.

Ahmadinejad has more than once hinted at his wish to follow in the footsteps of Hugo Chavez by changing the constitution and becoming a life-time president. Today, hundreds of Ahmadinejad's emissaries are in Venezuela working with the Chavez government. There are reports of close cooperation between the two countries' intelligence agencies--particularly on methods of crowd and opposition control, as well as co-opting the lower classes through patronage. The relationship is not surprising considering the many similarities between the two leaders' populism--ranging from election-rigging methods to government-sanctioned anti-Semitism. , underscores Ahmadinejad's desire to maintain the relationship.

The common denominator between those two would be the notable Jimmuh Cahtuh.

One great author once wrote; "we cannot avoid being born average but there is no excuse for being common."

Of all the political personalities I've witnessed in my life on Earth, JC is the most common sob I've yet encountred.. gs

His demands to Shah Pavliavi while he was president, ie; $5 per barrel oil to the US for 50 years, democrat party campaign contibutions, the denial to sell the Shah rubber bullets in the name of humanitairan causes and the resulting purge brought about by the mullahs that put to death more Persian citizens in one year that the Shah had been accused of killing in the previous thirty, should assure anyone with even half a brain that Jimmy carter should be held in the lowest esteem.

However, there are several factors that work against the implementation of these plans. Iranian society has now recognized the power of its own civil disobedience. The two supposedly losing candidates, Mir Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karubi, show no sign of cracking under increasing pressure to accept defeat. The youth--written off until a few weeks ago by most scholars and analysts as incorrigibly sybaritic, self-centered, and apolitical--have shown remarkable resilience and courage in asserting their rights. Even if the election results are not overturned, the regime's air of invincibility has been shattered, and will no longer be able to rule without regard to public will.

There are already signs that the Islamic Republic is losing much of its influence in the Muslim world. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah lost the recent election in Lebanon, and there are hints that Hamas might be inching towards an alliance with the Palestinian Authority. Some radical Sunni groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, who had earlier been flirting with Iran, are now voicing criticism of Iran's flawed election.

Perhaps most significantly, the regime's Shiite allies in Iraq--from Muqtada al-Sadr to Ayatollah Sayed Mohamad Baqir Al-Hakim--are also distancing themselves from their Persian patrons. A few weeks before the Iranian election, Rafsanjani made a trip to Iraq in which he met with Ayatollah Ali Sistani, an Iranian-born cleric who is the highest ranking Shiite figure in the world; in a subsequent official statement, the Iraq-based cleric emphasized how important it was that voices of moderation like Rafsanjani's retain their power. The comment was clearly meant as a warning to Ahmadinejad and other members of the regime, who had been using increasingly tough language against Rafsanjani (even jailing his daughter briefly); the announcement of the meeting is still featured prominently on Sistani's website. Sistani's refusal to publicly support the Iranian regime is only the most evident sign of a rift that has long existed between his brand of Shiism, and the kind promulgated by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei and now followed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Iranian regime's weakening influence across the region--particularly in Iraq, where it holds the most leverage over U.S. interests--will force it to be more pragmatic in its international dealings.

Bottom line??? Ahmahthingamabab will hath to tone down his rhetoric for the time being.