It's the TURNOVERS, stupid!

#1
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clkou

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#1
Borrowing a line from James Carville ...

Bear in mind it WON'T happen because of our inferior coaching, but if I was in charge of turning things around, I'd put a huge emphasis on LOW/NO turnovers and defense. Below are the turnover stats.

I'd have Diamond coming off the bench BECAUSE of her high turnovers and I'd let her know about it so if she wants back in the starting line-up, she takes care of it.

Starters would be Carter @ PG, Russell @ Center, Graves @ Forward, Dunbar @ guard, Nared @ Guard. I'd play Dunbar 40 minutes a night if the other team was in a zone defense. The only coaching I'd give her is to shoot a college 3 point shot, not an NBA 3 point shot. I am tired of seeing her shoot 3 feet behind the arc.

On offense, there would be HEAVY emphasis on movement. Guards should be looking to SLASH through the zone and take mid-range jumpers. Passers who skip pass should FOLLOW the pass because the defense always turns and when you follow the skip pass, you are usually open because the defense turns their heads and attention to the skip receiver.

Guards are also encouraged to shoot wide open 3's. I'm tired of this tentative bush league offense. Go big or go home.

I'd use Diamond and Jackson off the bench and try to keep it at 7 players and the HOTTEST 7 players - no more yanking out players when we're in a rhythm. Fact is that Jones, Moore, Middleton, DeShields, and Cooper turn it over way too much and we can't afford to have them in the game because of it. Having Diamond coming off the bench is only because of her other intangibles like scoring and defense. I'd go to Reynolds in a pinch if I have to. She just doesn't bring much to the game unfortunately this year.

## ---> Player ---> GP ---> GS ---> Tot Minutes ---> Avg Minutes ---> TO ---> Minutes/TO ---> TO/Game
13 ---> Dunbar, Kortney ---> 14 ---> 4 ---> 134 ---> 9.6 ---> 4 ---> 33.50 ---> 1.19
10 ---> Jackson, Meme ---> 12 ---> 0 ---> 97 ---> 8.1 ---> 5 ---> 19.40 ---> 2.06
12 ---> Graves, Bashaara ---> 16 ---> 15 ---> 468 ---> 29.3 ---> 25 ---> 18.72 ---> 2.14
31 ---> Nared, Jaime ---> 8 ---> 7 ---> 186 ---> 23.3 ---> 10 ---> 18.60 ---> 2.15
21 ---> Russell, Mercedes ---> 17 ---> 17 ---> 519 ---> 30.5 ---> 34 ---> 15.26 ---> 2.62
0 ---> Reynolds, Jordan ---> 16 ---> 7 ---> 416 ---> 26 ---> 28 ---> 14.86 ---> 2.69
14 ---> Carter, Andraya ---> 17 ---> 14 ---> 447 ---> 26.3 ---> 33 ---> 13.55 ---> 2.95

----- above acceptable turnovers, below unacceptable -----

2 ---> Jones, Jasmine ---> 5 ---> 3 ---> 102 ---> 20.4 ---> 10 ---> 10.20 ---> 3.92
1 ---> Moore, Nia ---> 6 ---> 0 ---> 35 ---> 5.8 ---> 4 ---> 8.75 ---> 4.57
33 ---> Middleton, Alexa ---> 13 ---> 2 ---> 192 ---> 14.8 ---> 25 ---> 7.68 ---> 5.21
11 ---> DeShields, Diamond ---> 17 ---> 10 ---> 448 ---> 26.4 ---> 59 ---> 7.59 ---> 5.27
20 ---> Cooper, Te'a ---> 17 ---> 6 ---> 356 ---> 20.9 ---> 48 ---> 7.42 ---> 5.39
 
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#4
#4
Where did I lose you, she's a guard. She doesn't play in the post she doesn't run the point.
 
#5
#5
Sounds like a plan.

But, lots of luck getting anyone's attention ,because you're not on the staff. It's this stubbornness that is killing the team.
 
#7
#7
vol66 said:
Starting.
Click to expand...
As I said, my starting line-up would largely be dependent on who takes care of the ball and who plays defense. Jamie is our 4th best in turnovers, 4th leading scorer ppg average, rebounds the ball, and plays reasonable defense. Could her shooting % be better? Sure, but damn near everyone on the team is guilty of that.
 
#8
#8
I too like the ideas you suggest. I also think that if the coaching staff was smart enough to do something about the turnover problem, it would have been done by now. I'm afraid that the turnover issue will cost them more games and possibly a tumble right out of the top 25. There have already been way to many bad firsts with Holly, but falling out of the top 25 and possibly not making the NCAA for the first time ever would probably get her fired after the season is up
 
#9
#9
I definitely agree with you about the coaching staff. What is crystal clear to me after 4 years of observations (among other things), they are not dynamic nor are they problem solvers.
 
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#10
#10
clkou said:
As I said, my starting line-up would largely be dependent on who takes care of the ball and who plays defense. Jamie is our 4th best in turnovers, 4th leading scorer ppg average, rebounds the ball, and plays reasonable defense. Could her shooting % be better? Sure, but damn near everyone on the team is guilty of that.
Click to expand...

You're right, she doesn't turn it over a lot given her minutes but she has 10 assists on the entire season. One less assist than Mercedes Russell.

She doesn't even consider passing inside, it's a glaring weakness in her game. I'd rather see Middleton start at 2G at this point, she's at least going to look inside and if they double down, she can shoot on the kick out.
 
#11
#11
Lowering turnovers must be coupled with an increase in FG %, otherwise it's a minimal impact.

The team is averaging 18 turnovers and 41% shooting. If the TO's are cut in half that results in 9 extra shots and at 41% shooting results in 3 and 1/2 extra baskets or 7 more points per game.

I'll take those extra points of course, but against Stanford, Texas, Notre Dame, and VA Tech it wouldn't have made a difference in the outcome. Arkansas and Florida, maybe or probably.

The team needs to cut down turnovers, increase FG %, and find a way to generate more shots per game by getting more offensive rebounds or getting to the foul line more.

There is no single magic bullet IMO. A lot of things need improving.
 
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#12
#12
I'd say the problems we have with assists are mostly because of the lack of a good offensive scheme which is another fault of the coaching staff. Regardless, Middleton is 3rd worst in Turnovers, only has 3 more assists than turnovers, 5th to last in scoring, doesn't rebound as well as Jamie, and not shooting 3's as well as Jamie.

For me, it all goes back to turnovers. It's an automatic missed shot for your team. It's a HUGE momentum killer for us and builder for the opposition. AFTER you take care of turnovers, you can take care of other facets of the game like better shooting %, more assists, and the like.
 
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#13
#13
clkou said:
Borrowing a line from James Carville ...

Bear in mind it WON'T happen because of our inferior coaching, but if I was in charge of turning things around, I'd put a huge emphasis on LOW/NO turnovers and defense. Below are the turnover stats.

I'd have Diamond coming off the bench BECAUSE of her high turnovers and I'd let her know about it so if she wants back in the starting line-up, she takes care of it.

Starters would be Carter @ PG, Russell @ Center, Graves @ Forward, Dunbar @ guard, Nared @ Guard. I'd play Dunbar 40 minutes a night if the other team was in a zone defense. The only coaching I'd give her is to shoot a college 3 point shot, not an NBA 3 point shot. I am tired of seeing her shoot 3 feet behind the arc.

On offense, there would be HEAVY emphasis on movement. Guards should be looking to SLASH through the zone and take mid-range jumpers. Passers who skip pass should FOLLOW the pass because the defense always turns and when you follow the skip pass, you are usually open because the defense turns their heads and attention to the skip receiver.

Guards are also encouraged to shoot wide open 3's. I'm tired of this tentative bush league offense. Go big or go home.

I'd use Diamond and Jackson off the bench and try to keep it at 7 players and the HOTTEST 7 players - no more yanking out players when we're in a rhythm. Fact is that Jones, Moore, Middleton, DeShields, and Cooper turn it over way too much and we can't afford to have them in the game because of it. Having Diamond coming off the bench is only because of her other intangibles like scoring and defense. I'd go to Reynolds in a pinch if I have to. She just doesn't bring much to the game unfortunately this year.

## ---> Player ---> GP ---> GS ---> Tot Minutes ---> Avg Minutes ---> TO ---> Minutes/TO ---> TO/Game
13 ---> Dunbar, Kortney ---> 14 ---> 4 ---> 134 ---> 9.6 ---> 4 ---> 33.50 ---> 1.19
10 ---> Jackson, Meme ---> 12 ---> 0 ---> 97 ---> 8.1 ---> 5 ---> 19.40 ---> 2.06
12 ---> Graves, Bashaara ---> 16 ---> 15 ---> 468 ---> 29.3 ---> 25 ---> 18.72 ---> 2.14
31 ---> Nared, Jaime ---> 8 ---> 7 ---> 186 ---> 23.3 ---> 10 ---> 18.60 ---> 2.15
21 ---> Russell, Mercedes ---> 17 ---> 17 ---> 519 ---> 30.5 ---> 34 ---> 15.26 ---> 2.62
0 ---> Reynolds, Jordan ---> 16 ---> 7 ---> 416 ---> 26 ---> 28 ---> 14.86 ---> 2.69
14 ---> Carter, Andraya ---> 17 ---> 14 ---> 447 ---> 26.3 ---> 33 ---> 13.55 ---> 2.95

----- above acceptable turnovers, below unacceptable -----

2 ---> Jones, Jasmine ---> 5 ---> 3 ---> 102 ---> 20.4 ---> 10 ---> 10.20 ---> 3.92
1 ---> Moore, Nia ---> 6 ---> 0 ---> 35 ---> 5.8 ---> 4 ---> 8.75 ---> 4.57
33 ---> Middleton, Alexa ---> 13 ---> 2 ---> 192 ---> 14.8 ---> 25 ---> 7.68 ---> 5.21
11 ---> DeShields, Diamond ---> 17 ---> 10 ---> 448 ---> 26.4 ---> 59 ---> 7.59 ---> 5.27
20 ---> Cooper, Te'a ---> 17 ---> 6 ---> 356 ---> 20.9 ---> 48 ---> 7.42 ---> 5.39
Click to expand...

Is that you Pat?
 
#14
#14
LVJeff said:
Lowering turnovers must be coupled with an increase in FG %, otherwise it's a minimal impact.
Click to expand...

I think you underestimate the momentum that it builds for the other team and kills for us when we turn it over. Also, it's a systematic philosophy that, when followed, will result in not only more points, but also better shot selection, better shots taken, and a better field goal %.

If Oregon State is our best win (and IMO it is), we had 9 turnovers which should be the minimum standard to aim for every game: single digit turnovers.

In our losses, we had 15, 17, 14, 24, 24, and 20 turnovers respectively. IF instead we would have had 9 turnovers 6 less (lost by 9), 8 less (lost by 14), 8 less (lost by 14), 15 less (lost by 8), 15 less (lost by 4), and 11 less (lost by 13) turnovers respectively, how much different would the game have been?

If we just score 2 points on HALF of those turnovers, all else being equal, we instead lose by 1, lose by 6, lose by 6, WIN by 6, WIN by 10, and lose by 3. Go just one small step further and hypothesize that 2 of those prevented turnovers ALSO prevented 4 points by the opposition, then we WIN by 3, lose by 2, lose by 2, WIN by 10, WIN by 14, and WIN by 1.

Quite honestly IMO that is the exact record we should have with this talent level.

NONE of that takes momentum into account either. I'll bet we don't lose to Virginia Tech based on the momentum factor.

The benefits of NOT turning the ball over cannot be understated enough. And, also the bottom line is that this coaching staff obviously does not care about turnovers at all when it comes to starting line-up, substitution, practices, and game time decisions. It's quite evident by the results.
 
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#15
#15
I'm not disagreeing with you about the need to reduce turnovers, but only one out of 344 teams listed on the NCAA Div I site is averaging single digit turnovers (and it's not Uconn). All the other teams are averaging over 11 turnovers per game and only 15 teams are averaging less than 13 turnovers per game. When was the last time a Tennessee team averaged 11 or even 13 turnovers per game?

Your goal of single digit turnovers per game is unrealistic. It's a nice idea and a goal (pun not intended) to shoot for, but it isn't going to happen. The LV's need to improve in all facets of the game, turnovers included. A more reasonable goal is 13 turnovers. Couple that with better FG %, better rebounding, more shots ppg, more free throws per game, etc... and you've got something. 9 turnovers per game average isn't going to happen. If it does, I'll cheer right along with you, but it'll make minimal difference if they're still shooting 41% and not getting many O rebounds or going to the line.
 
#16
#16
We got 9 against Oregon State and just 1 or 2 more and we likely don't win. I'm not saying we have to average 9 or less but we should certainly try and of all the stats it's tops in my book.

And I'm confident if we took care of JUST that one, the rest would take care of itself.
 
#17
#17
Borrowing a line from James Carville shows extremem amounts of ignorance. I stopped reading when I saw his name.
 
#18
#18
You want to know who turns over the ball? Well, it's Holly. She has Graves and Russell standing behind a two-three zone and demands the other three players (doesn't matter who they are) pass them the ball. When the three try to do what Holly demands, it usually results in a turnover. If a player realizes she can't get a pass through the zone, she has to pass the ball across the court, over the zone which usually results in a turnover. If a player does succeed in getting the ball to either Graves or Russell, Graves and Russell are too far under the basket and must muscle out to shoot (Russell has no muscles). If they can't get out far enough to shoot, they must try to pass the ball out through the three players at the back of the zone, which usually results in a turnover.

Holly coaches turnovers, and she is probably the most successful coach in the country. If Holly does not want to change her offense, one could suggest the guards pass the ball high enough that only that only Russell could catch it and shoot it without bringing the ball down (like Griner). However, Russell doesn't have the strength to catch and shoot the ball.
 
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#19
#19
We don't need to get to single digits in turnovers: we need to reduce the average from 20 to, say, 15. That alone would be a huge improvement. However, TOs have been a problem for a decade--and there has been NO IMPROVEMENT.

It's not just turnovers--it is turnovers and assists, which are two sides of the same coin. Assist to turnover ratio is an important team stat that tells you how many easy baskets your offense is creating versus how many times you are giving the ball away. Yep, our Assist/Turnover ratio has been BAD compared to UConn and ND. Assists and turnovers are both of function of ball movement and PASSING. We are bad at player and ball movement--we stand around too much, have for years--and that in turn leads to forced passes. You watch ND and others and they have an offensive plan--there is chemistry and purpose in their offense. We seem not to have much of a plan beyond the guards weaving on the perimeter, which accomplishes nothing, and trying to get the ball inside, which requires deft passing and some movement. In short, we've got a crap offense and have had a crap offense for a decade, which corresponds to the slide in the program. And yet HW seems not to notice that scoring 55 points a game is not going to cut it---it's not 1980s anymore.

You would think that at some point, HW would want to do whatever it takes to get a handle on these persistent offense problems, which have plagued us for years. Why not hire a talented offensive assistant coach, for starters? Has she done this? No, maybe because she'd have to cede control of the unit to somebody who actually knows what s/he's doing.
 
#21
#21
clkou said:
Borrowing a line from James Carville ...

Bear in mind it WON'T happen because of our inferior coaching, but if I was in charge of turning things around, I'd put a huge emphasis on LOW/NO turnovers and defense. Below are the turnover stats.

I'd have Diamond coming off the bench BECAUSE of her high turnovers and I'd let her know about it so if she wants back in the starting line-up, she takes care of it.

Starters would be Carter @ PG, Russell @ Center, Graves @ Forward, Dunbar @ guard, Nared @ Guard. I'd play Dunbar 40 minutes a night if the other team was in a zone defense. The only coaching I'd give her is to shoot a college 3 point shot, not an NBA 3 point shot. I am tired of seeing her shoot 3 feet behind the arc.

On offense, there would be HEAVY emphasis on movement. Guards should be looking to SLASH through the zone and take mid-range jumpers. Passers who skip pass should FOLLOW the pass because the defense always turns and when you follow the skip pass, you are usually open because the defense turns their heads and attention to the skip receiver.

Guards are also encouraged to shoot wide open 3's. I'm tired of this tentative bush league offense. Go big or go home.

I'd use Diamond and Jackson off the bench and try to keep it at 7 players and the HOTTEST 7 players - no more yanking out players when we're in a rhythm. Fact is that Jones, Moore, Middleton, DeShields, and Cooper turn it over way too much and we can't afford to have them in the game because of it. Having Diamond coming off the bench is only because of her other intangibles like scoring and defense. I'd go to Reynolds in a pinch if I have to. She just doesn't bring much to the game unfortunately this year.

## ---> Player ---> GP ---> GS ---> Tot Minutes ---> Avg Minutes ---> TO ---> Minutes/TO ---> TO/Game
13 ---> Dunbar, Kortney ---> 14 ---> 4 ---> 134 ---> 9.6 ---> 4 ---> 33.50 ---> 1.19
10 ---> Jackson, Meme ---> 12 ---> 0 ---> 97 ---> 8.1 ---> 5 ---> 19.40 ---> 2.06
12 ---> Graves, Bashaara ---> 16 ---> 15 ---> 468 ---> 29.3 ---> 25 ---> 18.72 ---> 2.14
31 ---> Nared, Jaime ---> 8 ---> 7 ---> 186 ---> 23.3 ---> 10 ---> 18.60 ---> 2.15
21 ---> Russell, Mercedes ---> 17 ---> 17 ---> 519 ---> 30.5 ---> 34 ---> 15.26 ---> 2.62
0 ---> Reynolds, Jordan ---> 16 ---> 7 ---> 416 ---> 26 ---> 28 ---> 14.86 ---> 2.69
14 ---> Carter, Andraya ---> 17 ---> 14 ---> 447 ---> 26.3 ---> 33 ---> 13.55 ---> 2.95

----- above acceptable turnovers, below unacceptable -----

2 ---> Jones, Jasmine ---> 5 ---> 3 ---> 102 ---> 20.4 ---> 10 ---> 10.20 ---> 3.92
1 ---> Moore, Nia ---> 6 ---> 0 ---> 35 ---> 5.8 ---> 4 ---> 8.75 ---> 4.57
33 ---> Middleton, Alexa ---> 13 ---> 2 ---> 192 ---> 14.8 ---> 25 ---> 7.68 ---> 5.21
11 ---> DeShields, Diamond ---> 17 ---> 10 ---> 448 ---> 26.4 ---> 59 ---> 7.59 ---> 5.27
20 ---> Cooper, Te'a ---> 17 ---> 6 ---> 356 ---> 20.9 ---> 48 ---> 7.42 ---> 5.39
Click to expand...

No. It is the STUPID turnovers.
 
#22
#22
if Russell would catch the passes thrown right into her hands, Middleton's TO's would be 80% less.
 
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