James Dator - NegaVol For Life!

[Volador]

Hey, this Dator guy might have some valid points but, would love to see Hendon get drafted in first round or two so that we can tell this bozo that he'd make a better weatherman than sports analyst.

Hendon Hooker isn’t going Top 10 in the NFL Draft... stop it
This ‘Hendon Hooker in the Top 10’ talk is dumb.
By James Dator Mar 29, 2023, 10:45am EDT
4 Comments / 4 New
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  Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
  Hendon Hooker was an incredible story during the 2022 NCAA season, but now this storyline has jumped the shark. Mike Tannenbaum of ESPN turned heads on Tuesday when he shattered every morsel of conventional wisdom when it comes to the 2023 NFL Draft, mocking Hooker to the Seattle Seahawks at No. 5.
  A lot of things when it comes to the draft and prospect evaluation come down to personal opinion and gut feelings, but this is just dumb. We don’t need to humor this thinking, or pretend it’s somehow genius. Hooker in the Top 10 is stupid. It won’t happen, it will never happen, it was never going to happen.
  Let’s discuss why.
  Hendon Hooker is the anti Will Levis
  Projecting NFL quarterbacks is extremely difficult, so teams look for predictors of success at the next level. The easiest way is to examine the offense they ran in college, and map that onto the way the sport is played in the NFL.
  This is much, much more important than raw college stats. Obviously it’s nice to see someone win and put up big numbers, but we’ve seen mammoth college stats before, and if they’re in the wrong offense they will never, ever translate.
  Do you remember Brandon Doughty? Probably not. In 2015 the Western Kentucky quarterback had one of the greatest passing seasons in the history of college football. Doughty threw for 5,055 yards, completed 71.9 percent of his passes, threw 48 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions. He was drafted in the 7th round and was out of the NFL in two years.
  There was nothing about the Western Kentucky offense that translated to the NFL. They ran a variation of the Air Raid, which is amazing at putting up huge numbers and making life miserable for college defenses, but very few of the traits needed to run an Air Raid work in the pros.
  Similarly, Tennessee’s 2022 offense was fun as hell, and also a total gimmick. Head coach Josh Heupel ran his own variation of Art Briles’ system, that spreads receivers wide, and uses stack alignments to cause defensive confusion. The quarterback has one read, and the nature of receiver placement results in busted coverage on almost every passing down. So long as the quarterback can get the ball to that one guy quickly, it’s simple.
  
  “So, when this concept is signaled from the sideline, there is one target and only one target. It’s not a full-field progression read from the quarterback that is common in most West Coast systems. This is why when you look to the opposite end of the field, receivers aren’t even getting off the ball. They are simply conserving their energy for when they get tagged.”​
  This results in mammoth yardage gains, low risk of interceptions, and a system designed to destroy teams who don’t have the time to do immense homework on offense.
  None of this works in the NFL. Pass rushers are too good to allow for running five-wide on every passing down. Defensive coordinators might get fooled a few times by gimmicks, but given them some time and they’ll grind a gadget offense down — remember when the Dolphins went 11-5 because of the Wildcat in 2008 before it got figured out?
  The inverse of this is Will Levis. There’s no doubt that drafting Levis takes a tremendous amount of faith because his numbers and college performance don’t pass the smell test. However, the offense he runs does. Mark Stoops and offensive coordinator Liam Coen run a carbon copy of an NFL offense, with Coen coming directly from the Los Angeles Rams to Kentucky. There’s no guess work. Whatever positive traits Levis showed running Coen’s offense will translate to the NFL, so the work needs to happen in rounding out what he did poorly.
  Levis had to work through a full read progression. He needed to throw into tighter windows. He had to have an understanding on NFL route trees and timing. Make no mistake: Levis didn’t do a lot of these things well, but at least you know what you’re getting. Hooker, on the other hand, is a wild mess of guess work that he can even adapt to the NFL from the system he’s been flourishing it.
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  Hooker is also 25 years old
  There’s just a simple reality that teams want quarterbacks who can perform on their rookie deal, and if they succeed you want to lock them into two major contracts after that. Patrick Mahomes is only two years older than Hooker, and he’s already learned an NFL offense, become one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, and won two Super Bowl trophies.
  Justin Herbert is entering his fourth NFL season and he’s the same age as Hooker.
  If you think it will take 2-3 years (conservatively) to get Hooker up to speed, then he’s already approaching 30. When it’s time to sign the second contract you’re looking at the possibility of him being in his late 30s when the deal is complete. There just isn’t enough time to make it worth it.
  Hooker is also coming off an ACL tear
  Yeah, remember that his college season was shortened BECAUSE HE TORE HIS ACL! Yeah, there’s that too — and in justifying the pick Tannenbaum hilariously talked about the injury like it was a good thing, saying:
  
  “The ACL, oddly to me, is a little bit of a positive from this standpoint. They just extended Geno Smith. Geno Smith will be their starter this year. Let the ACL come along.”​
  An ACL tear is never a positive from any standpoint. It means that Hooker will sit all of 2023 while he rehabs, taking his first NFL snaps (maybe) when he’s almost 27 years old.
  The assertion for Hooker is “well, he looks so good it’s worth the wait.” The issue is that all the ways he looks good don’t translate. This isn’t some Tua Tagovailoa minor leap of faith, it’s a chasm — and even if Hooker was young and completely healthy he wouldn’t be taken in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft because of scheme translation alone.
  Hooker could end up being a solid quarterback despite all this
  For all the logic of projecting players into the NFL the league is littered with examples of the opposite. Nothing about Josh Allen made sense in the pre-draft process, and now he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Meanwhile everything about Sam Bradford screamed that he was going to be elite, and he ended up being mediocre at best. The list goes on if we get into deeper rounds and find gems who fell too far.
  The point is: When it comes to selecting NFL quarterbacks with high picks the game is all about projection and risk mitigation. Ceilings and floors. When it comes to Hendon Hooker there’s an average ceiling, and a tremendously low floor. Why any team would take that over someone like Anthony Richardson, who shares similar floor risks — but with legitimate “could take over the entire NFL” potential is beyond me.
  Hooker will only go in the first round if a team is willing to overlook every bit of logic about how the draft works. That could absolutely happen and if he pans out they’re geniuses, but everything we know about draft logic tells us that Hooker will be a Day 2 pick at best, and most likely last into the mid rounds. He will not go in the Top 10.

 

[bigorangepoppa]

Once again, the gimmick offense nonsense. Hooker DID go through his progressions, just like any good QB would do. The quarterback goes to the line with a knowledge who should be open for the play called, but that can change, depending on the defense alignment. And from everything I've read concerning Hooker's interviews with NFL GM's, they are all extremely impressed with his knowledge about NFL defenses and what play to run to counter it. I would love to see Hooker embarrass all the negative "pundits" who think he will not be a good pro QB. All the love toward Levis and Richardson, I don't get it.

 

[utvolpj]

The inverse of this is Will Levis. There’s no doubt that drafting Levis takes a tremendous amount of faith because his numbers and college performance don’t pass the smell test. However, the offense he runs does. Mark Stoops and offensive coordinator Liam Coen run a carbon copy of an NFL offense, with Coen coming directly from the Los Angeles Rams to Kentucky. There’s no guess work. Whatever positive traits Levis showed running Coen’s offense will translate to the NFL, so the work needs to happen in rounding out what he did poorly.

Translation: He ran a pro offense. Sure he sucked at it but he's better than that very successful guy at UT

 

[VolBricks]

I love the CYA "Hooker could wind up being a solid quarterback despite all of this"

 

[Owl-flavored]

Respectfully, the analogy is a bit off because weathermen are actually right some of the time.

 

[WillisWG]

no more than a cut & paste piece that lacks insight

 

[DaddyChad]

I’m a bit pessimistic about Hookers chances in the nfl but I’m would be much more comfortable taking Hooker in round 2 than spending a first round pick on someone like Levis. I would also take Hooker before Levis if both were still on the board.

 

[DaddyChad]

Translation: He ran a pro offense. Sure he sucked at it but he's better than that very successful guy at UT

Mahomes also didn’t translate bc he was in a “gimmicky system”. Guy is grasping at straws.

 

[TNVOLFN]

Mahomes also didn’t translate bc he was in a “gimmicky system”. Guy is grasping at straws.

The author either hasn't paid attention or has no clue about the market for Air Raid coaches and players in the NFL, it's the only reason Kliff Kingsbury was able to be mediocre at Texas Tech and land the Cardinals HC job. The author credits Art Briles as the original architect and that just isn't true - it's Hal Mumme/Mike Leach.

 

[Dudleys87]

Levis was absolutely awful at the combine. Hooker didn’t work out and had a better day.

How they still believe Levis just flips the switch and becomes the player they hope is beyond me

 

[Volador]

Well, somebody below on the October Poll has to be right.

 

[Savannahbayvol]

I've never understood the angst fans develop over these NFL draft gurus. What difference does it make, you think any NFL scouts give a rats ass what people like this guy think. And besides as someone said, it only takes ONE team to fall in love with a player.

 

[benholt06]

I don't think this is all that unfair, however what he's not accounting for is the rise of the RPO and similar schemes.

Mobile QBs are becoming more and more en vogue, even though it seems like the SB winners still use air raid concepts.

HH is smart and skilled enough I believe to make it in the league. He will need the right circumstances and time to learn. Hope he gets that chance.

 

[OrangeAllDay]

The author either hasn't paid attention or has no clue about the market for Air Raid coaches and players in the NFL, it's the only reason Kliff Kingsbury was able to be mediocre at Texas Tech and land the Cardinals HC job. The author credits Art Briles as the original architect and that just isn't true - it's Hal Mumme/Mike Leach.

We don’t run an air raid. While yes the OG architects of the air raid is Hal Mumme and Mike Leach, the basis of our offense is the Veer and shoot which the architect of that offense was Art Briles. Now Heupel does a lot of things different than Art Briles, as far as formations and goal line situations, but that’s absolutely the basis of our offense.

 

[OrangeAllDay]

Btw I’d take Heupel’s offense over any air raid coach, Lincoln Riley, and even Art Briles him self. I think Heupel took what Art created, and has expanded on it, and has brought that offense to a new hemisphere. Now I’m basis, some of it has to do with that I’m a UT fan, but most of it is I love the formations we run and that our run game is not a 1:1 carbon copy of Art’s offense. I think our run game is better, even though Art would gash you on the ground as well.

 

[TNVOLFN]

We don’t run an air raid. While yes the OG architects of the air raid is Hal Mumme and Mike Leach, the basis of our offense is the Veer and shoot which the architect of that offense was Art Briles. Now Heupel does a lot of things different than Art Briles, as far as formations and goal line situations, but that’s absolutely the basis of our offense.

You’re saying Briles system isn’t based on the Air Raid and that it’s a stand alone system? I guess Briles was asleep all those years he was on Mike Leach’s staff at Texas Tech.

 

[Remy]

As long as 2Hs goes in front of the flexing dwarf from Athens, I'm good.

 

[UTFanHades]

When the main point of the article is he runs an NFL offense that was horrible all year, that’s not much of a point. Can the author not self-reflect at all and see how terrible of a take this is?

 

[VolBallGuy]

When the main point of the article is he runs an NFL offense that was horrible all year, that’s not much of a point. Can the author not self-reflect at all and see how terrible of a take this is?

Journalism is alive and well. Unfortunately 80 % of what we read from the major outlets isn’t journalism. It’s more like, “if I write this quick take I’ll make $70, so let’s do it.”

 

[Fightmaker]

Regardless of where they are drafted, Hendon Hooker will put up better numbers than Will Levis. At football in college, at football in the NFL, at dad league basketball when their careers are over, and at shuffleboard when they are older down in Florida. He is a harder competitor, a smarter athlete, and just a better all around human being.

 

[sami]

I get the idea of gambling on Richardson's potential and upside, as risky as it might be. For the right team with a solid coaching staff in place that has the time and ability to develop a young QB with incredible physical traits, it might make sense.

For the life of me I don't remotely understand the attraction of Levis. The idea of comparing him to Josh Allen is absurd, and more so because Allen becoming this successful was somewhat of an upset. But to point out that the system he was awful running in college will be the same system he runs in the NFL as a reason to draft him might be the dumbest thing I've yet read on the draft. Levis has 'major bust' in blinking neon letters written all over him.

Regarding Hooker, it will be all about the landing spot. If he isn't somewhere that is committed to him being QB1 in his second or third season when he is 27-28 and develops him that way, I find it hard to imagine he will be as successful as he possibly could be.