Jeff Stewart is picking Dores over Vols

#1
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WA_Vol

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#1

Devil’s Advocate

By Jeffery Stewart
Sportswriter
Date: Nov 17, 2005

There are some very sound strategic reasons for picking the Commodores to upset Tennessee Saturday, and there’s also a simple matter of mathematics.

Forget that the Dores are long overdue or that the Vols were vastly overrated. Unless there’s been a rules change in the last week, the team that scores the most points still wins.
In four road games prior to Saturday’s contest in Knoxville, Vanderbilt has averaged 30.5 points per game. In five home games of the current campaign, Tennessee’s offensive output comes to a paltry 17.25 points per contest. The Vols’ offense scored 20 points against Ole Miss (the defense added a TD) and equaled that high-water mark again last week against Memphis.

Don’t be fooled by the line out of Vegas that makes UT a 12-point favorite, it will take a dramatic departure from the 2005 norm for this game to end up in the Vols’ favor. And there are intrinsic factors that mitigate against such a reversal of fortune.

Sure, Tennessee still has a strong defense that will make it difficult for Vanderbilt to score points, but the Vols are also susceptible to an effective aerial attack which the Dores have. Vandy is ranked No. 1 in the SEC in passing and No. 21 in the nation. The Vols pass defense is ranked No. 9 in the SEC and No. 51 in the country.

The problem is further compounded by the fact the Dores don’t have any healthy running backs, which means they will spread the field and pass. Usually you want an offense to become one dimensional, but this strikes the Vols’ Achilles Heel on defense — a lack of secondary depth.

By using wide receivers in place of backs, Vanderbilt will force John Chavis’ troops to go to their nickel and dime packages which, in turn, puts reserve DB Roshaun Fellows in the direct line of fire. Over the last two games, Roshaun hasn’t exactly been a jolly good Fellows. He’s like a ball magnet in the secondary, as every team seeks him out anytime he enters the fray. If Memphis could pick on the redshirt sophomore with a wide receiver playing quarterback, Vanderbilt’s Cutler — who is the SEC’s total offense leader and a projected first-round NFL Draft choice — will eviscerate him.

True, Vanderbilt’s defense isn’t scary. It ranks No. 11 in the SEC and No. 75 in the nation, but with an offense ranked No. 100 among Division I teams, can the Vols take advantage? The Dores may be slow, but they’re not dumb. They’ve got a season’s worth of film that clearly shows Rick Clausen’s effectiveness is greatly diminished by deploying an intermediate zone that takes away the mid-range pass and forces deep throws. Clausen’s suspect arm strength limits him to short passes which opposing defenses can smother because their numbers are distributed near the line against the run.

I suppose there’s always a chance the Vols will be especially motivated to extend the team’s current bowl and winning season streak to 17 straight, but if that’s the case why would they wait until now to start winning?



 
#4
#4
Some counter points:

Our secondary is much better than last year.

Teams are passing against us because they cannot run.

The rankings are also relative to opponents played - 2 of our non-conference opponents rank in the top 20 or so of total offense (UAB and ND) and those rankings are built on passing yards - in short are SEC ranking in passing is skewed by the non-conference opponents. In fact, UAB and ND are the 2 highest ranked offensive opponents we have faced.

The presence of a solid running game (hopefully with Foster) will shorten the game and limited possessions for Vandy.

Cutler will only eviscerate us if he is not flat on his back - being one dimensional allows the potent Vol D-line to load up and bring the pain.

Vandy could win but the odds favor the Vols.
 
#5
#5
Some interesting facts for the game:

Cutler is the highest ranked passer that we will face

Cutler (5th nationally)
Quinn (6th)
Hackney (11th)

Leak (36th)
Croyle (53rd)
Russell (58th)
Mitchell (58th)
Shockley (75th)

Here's hoping that his ranking drops after facing the Vols. :cross:
 
#6
#6
Originally posted by volinbham@Nov 17, 2005 9:59 PM
Some counter points:

Our secondary is much better than last year.


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True, but it's much worse without Allen obviously. I think that Cutler will have a fairly easy day against our secondary if our Dline doesn't keep pressure on him.
 
#9
#9
At this point it's all up in the air. All season and even earlier in the season there was more to play for. if you can't get pumped up for some of the other games like USC, UGA, or UA then why should the players be any different for vandy? I'd hope there's a fire under their seats but if they didn't have one for the bigger games why now?
 
#10
#10
Past Ut teams have found ways to win, this one finds ways to lose.

Just that type of season. Exactly why you need discipline, 2005 case in point to what happens when you don't
 
#11
#11
I agree I dont think we beat Vandy.

Vandy's gets a lot more up for this game then UT usually does, and they have came close the last few years when UT has had much better teams. This is their best chance in the last 25 years.
 
#12
#12
I haven't heard one person mention the fact that Kentucky put up 40+ points on Vandy's Defense last week. I know Vandy's passing offense is the best in the SEC and the best we will or have seen all year, BUT all the good offenses we faced this yr that have passed well on us had a run game we had to play. Vandy has no, nada, nothing in the backfield for us to have to play. Vandy has no backs to block for cutler we will be on him like Fulmer on KrispyCreme. Mahalona, hall, harrleson will eat them alive and our LB will be able to help with the pass. Start Rick leave him in and hold on to the damn ball and we should not only pull out the win but should be able to dominant the game. Then we have to worry about the team that last week beat vandy next week. If we do lose to Vandy this weekend I want to see Cooter start and play against Kentucky. Cooter for QBJust my 2cents
 
#13
#13
Vandy's defense may suck, and Kentucky may have put up a bunch of points, but at least Kentucky has a shred of talent on offense in Rafael Little.
 
#14
#14
Originally posted by milohimself@Nov 18, 2005 8:45 AM
Vandy's defense may suck, and Kentucky may have put up a bunch of points, but at least Kentucky has a shred of talent on offense in Rafael Little.
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So are you saying that Kentucky has a better chance of beating UT than Vandy? And if Vandy beats UT, then UK will beat you even worse? And how would a 4-7 season look to you? And what would that do to UT's '06 preseason ranking? Does that mean that UT would be
U
N
R
A
N
K
E
D
?
:shades:
 
#15
#15
Originally posted by Bama Reb@Nov 18, 2005 9:02 AM
Does that mean that UT would be
U
              N
                R
                  A
                    N
                      K
                        E
                          D
                            ?
                              :shades:
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Perhaps you could tell us how that feels and how to deal with it since your team has had considerable experience with the above mentioned situation :biggrin2:
 
#16
#16
Originally posted by milohimself@Nov 18, 2005 8:45 AM
Vandy's defense may suck, and Kentucky may have put up a bunch of points, but at least Kentucky has a shred of talent on offense in Rafael Little.
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Here's why the UK comparison has limited value:

UK ranks right with UT on total offense (99th vs 100th) and scored easily against Vandy's 75th ranked defense.

Vandy scored 40+ against UK's defense - they rank 107th whereas UT's ranks 12th.

 
#17
#17
Originally posted by volinbham@Nov 18, 2005 10:14 AM
Perhaps you could tell us how that feels and how to deal with it since your team has had considerable experience with the above mentioned situation  :biggrin2:
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Sure thing. In no uncertain terms, it SUX. That's why UA hired a decent coach who is dedicated to returning our program to one of respected competition. He makes it a point to recruit talented players, and instill a firm discipline into those players. The players then make it a point to put everything they have into each game. That combination of coaching, discipline and talent why we're at a much higher level than we were at this time last year.
How about you?
Roll Tide :shades:
 
#19
#19
here is another from CNNSI Stewart Mandel:

Some quick predictions
An extended, Rivalry Week edition ...

• Auburn 20, Alabama 10
• Michigan 24, Ohio State 20
• USC 34, Fresno State 13
• Penn State 30, Michigan State 25
• Miami 27, Georgia Tech 13
• Iowa 24, Minnesota 20
• Virginia Tech 30, Virginia 17
• Texas Tech 28, Oklahoma 24
• Clemson 24, South Carolina 17
• Maryland 23, Boston College 21
• Cal 28, Stanford 27
• Oregon 31, Oregon State 17
• BYU 24, Utah 10
• Purdue 35, Indiana 28
• Washington State 27, Washington 24
• Upset special: Vanderbilt 21, Tennessee 16

 
#20
#20
A couple of things in our favor, Clausen is starting and Foster is healthier and the starting RB. Should be a good game.
 
#21
#21
Originally posted by Bama Reb@Nov 18, 2005 2:28 PM
Sure thing.  In no uncertain terms, it SUX.  That's why UA hired a decent coach who is dedicated to returning our program to one of respected competition.  He makes it a point to recruit talented players, and instill a firm discipline into those players.  The players then make it a point to put everything they have into each game.  That combination of coaching, discipline and talent why we're at a much higher level than we were at this time last year.
How about you?
Roll Tide :shades:
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Shula is a decent coach. You are better than last year.

Recruiting? We don't know yet - how many of his recruits are making a serious difference this year?

The team is Senior dominated with many/most players playing in the same system for 3 years.

Next year is when we learn about Shula, talent, discipline etc. Major losses on both sides of the ball in talent and experience. Another cupcake NC schedule plus Ole Miss/Ark./Miss St. guarantees bowl eligibility.

 
#22
#22
Originally posted by oklavol@Nov 18, 2005 3:24 PM
A couple of  things in our favor, Clausen is starting and Foster is healthier and the starting RB. Should be a good game.
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How to beat Vandy:

Fair catch every punt with whoever on the team has the best hands (I don't care if they can run). Do not let Lucas Taylor anywhere near a punt or kick return.

Always take a knee in the endzone on kick-offs.

Play only Rick Clausen at QB, give Foster the ball 40 times, punt on 3rd down if you need to.


How to beat UK:

See above

:devilsmoke:
 
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