Jobs Report in for August

[BeecherVol]

96k

Down about 40k from the monthly average this year, which is 15k (+/-) less per month than 2011.

 

[Cartervol]

He just needs 4 more years to fix it.

 

[utvolpj]

lose jobs but the UE number goes down. I used to understand math

 

[BeecherVol]

lose jobs but the UE number goes down. I used to understand math

UE rate doesn't take in those that quit looking for a job or never have been.

The "true" UE rate is much higher.

 

[Velo Vol]

The biggest surprise about this was the ADP survey yesterday said +201,000.

An inexact science, apparently.

 

[utvolpj]

UE rate doesn't take in those that quit looking for a job or never have been.

The "true" UE rate is much higher.

I get it just not sure how they can trot these numbers out with a straight face anymore. Close to 90mil people are just ignored now when counting up the numbers. It should be a really simple number to calculate

 

[EvanStalcup1990]

Well, I made a lot of money in Gold in Silver today because of these reports. Thank you POTUS.

 

[Outdors21]

I get it just not sure how they can trot these numbers out with a straight face anymore. Close to 90mil people are just ignored now when counting up the numbers. It should be a really simple number to calculate

Also, there are many people who don't qualify for UE and therefore, even if they file, don't count in the numbers.

 

[volinbham]

The biggest surprise about this was the ADP survey yesterday said +201,000.

An inexact science, apparently.

I assume ADP pulls data from the payroll they actually process then adjust for the payroll they don't process. I'm guessing much of the discrepancy is that ADPs adjustment factors are off.

 

[GAVol]

I get it just not sure how they can trot these numbers out with a straight face anymore. Close to 90mil people are just ignored now when counting up the numbers. It should be a really simple number to calculate

Big difference between the "official" U3 number and the "true" U6 number which accounts for those who've stopped looking and those forced to accept part time jobs.

 

[Gramps]

Just reported on CNN that we have only 63% of the USA workforce working.

 

[volfanCLT]

UE rate doesn't take in those that quit looking for a job or never have been.

The "true" UE rate is much higher.

Exactly. When the economy is getting real bad, unemployment actually goes down due to large amounts of people moving from "unemployed" to "discouraged worker" which means they've stopped looking for a job.

 

[utvolpj]

Just reported on CNN that we have only 63% of the USA workforce working.

exactly. That's the UE number that should be reported

 

[BeecherVol]

Big difference between the "official" U3 number and the "true" U6 number which accounts for those who've stopped looking and those forced to accept part time jobs.

Exactly. The "true" number is the one swept under the rug and not discussed.

 

[volinbham]

The jobs report would be better if the Republicans weren't cockblocking Obama. Clinton wouldn't have been cockblocked.

 

[myrobbins7]

exactly. That's the UE number that should be reported

Absolutely.. +1

 

[myrobbins7]

Well, I made a lot of money in Gold in Silver today because of these reports. Thank you POTUS.

Good call...I've been making money off of gold and silver for years now and the future looks bright.

 

[volinbham]

spoons I'm telling ya - spoons

 

[myrobbins7]

spoons I'm telling ya - spoons

lol:

 

[Velo Vol]

As weak as last month was, it's actually the best August jobs report since 2006, and the fourth best one in the past 13 years.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

[Have to change the output to 2000 data, not sure how to link directly.]

 

[NEO]

I assume ADP pulls data from the payroll they actually process then adjust for the payroll they don't process. I'm guessing much of the discrepancy is that ADPs adjustment factors are off.

ADP's calculations could be very off and here is why.

I use runpayroll by them.

When I hire someone, lets say the 21st. I do not actually put them in the system until the day I run payroll for the time they worked. At that time, as I run payroll, I add them and put in the hire date. But if I hired them on 21st payroll wouldnt happen until the following month so the "monthly number" would be off.

Also, if this person was then hired but didnt work out and was terminated or just quit, I would not terminate them out until the next payroll and put the term date in then.

This means I could hire someone in july, fire them in july for never showing up for work, and then number would show gain in august and loss in august, but depending on how fast they update the term sight might not show the loss until oct meaning it would show a growth that never happened.

ADP also isnt very good at real time stats. Trust me.